The College Football Playoff Committee has officially released its third batch of rankings ahead of the inaugural 12-team CFP.
It’s getting pretty boring on Ohio State’s end, as the Buckeyes remain at No. 2 in the committee’s eyes for the third straight week. Of course, this week is far from boring from an OSU perspective, as the top-five matchup with Indiana will essentially lock one of those two teams into the 12-team field.
Per usual, at the end of the article, we’ll make our own guess at what the playoff could look like. For now, here’s what it would look like if we went off the CFP rankings.
THE UPDATED CFP BRACKET PROJECTION pic.twitter.com/btjbCEx38a
— ESPN (@espn) November 20, 2024
Before we get to our projections, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who remains in contention for a CFP spot. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Oregon (11-0 overall, 8-0 Big Ten, No. 1 in CFP poll)
Remaining schedule: vs. Washington (NR)
Breakdown: Oregon has booked its ticket to Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship. The Ducks have a week off then play a meaningless game (as far as playoff stakes are concerned) against Washington that they will probably win anyway.
Ohio State (9-1, 6-1, No. 2)
Remaining schedule: vs. Indiana (No. 5), vs. Michigan (NR)
Breakdown: Ohio State plays its third top-five game of the season, a record for the Buckeyes. While it’s hard to envision a loss at Ohio Stadium, the Buckeyes could still probably make the CFP if they lose to the Hoosiers because of their win against Penn State. But that would mean a road game in the first round, so it would be best to just win and focus on getting revenge against Michigan.
Penn State (9-1, 6-1, No. 4)
Remaining schedule: at Minnesota (NR), vs. Maryland (NR)
Breakdown: Penn State has its toughest remaining game this week against Minnesota on the road. I don’t think the Nittany Lions get into the CFP at 10-2, so they need to ensure they win both contests the next two weeks.
Indiana (10-0 overall, 7-0 Big Ten, No. 5)
Remaining schedule: at Ohio State (No. 2), vs. Purdue (NR)
Breakdown: Indiana has to pass the eye test this week. Assuming the Hoosiers can’t win the game outright, they have to play a competitive game against the Buckeyes to prove to the committee that they belong in the 12-team field. If Indiana loses by say, 24 points or more, I don’t think the Hoosiers will get the benefit of the doubt against a 10-2 SEC team with better wins.
SEC
Texas (9-1, 5-1 SEC, No. 3 in CFP poll)
Remaining schedule: vs. Kentucky (NR), at Texas A&M (No. 15)
Breakdown: Texas should handle Kentucky with relative ease this weekend, which will set up a huge showdown with Texas A&M on the road next week. If the Longhorns lose against the Aggies, I’m not convinced they make the 12-team field.
Alabama (8-2, 4-2, No. 7)
Remaining schedule: at Oklahoma (NR), vs. Auburn (NR)
Breakdown: Alabama is probably on track to be in the SEC championship game against either Texas or Texas A&M, but needs to not slip up against a mediocre Oklahoma team or in the Iron Bowl.
Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2, No. 9)
Remaining schedule: at Florida (NR), vs. Mississippi State (NR)
Breakdown: Ole Miss has to survive against Florida and DJ Lagway to essentially secure a CFP berth. I love the Egg Bowl more than any man should, but Mississippi State may be the worst non-Vanderbilt SEC team in recent memory.
Georgia (8-2 overall, 6-2, No. 10)
Remaining schedule: vs. UMass (NR), vs. Georgia Tech (NR)
Breakdown: Kirby Smart can yell at the CFP committee all he wants, but the Bulldogs are safely in the CFP baring a collapse against Georgia Tech.
Tennessee (8-2, 5-2, No. 11)
Remaining schedule: vs. UTEP (NR), at Vanderbilt (NR)
Breakdown: There may not be anything Tennessee can do to bolster its stock and the Volunteers will likely be the team battling with Indiana for the last at-large berth if everything plays out like it’s supposed to. Tennessee should consider themselves diehard Buckeye fans for one week and root for a huge blowout win against Indiana.
Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1, No. 15)
Remaining schedule: at Auburn (NR), vs. Texas (No. 3)
Breakdown: Auburn is insanely beatable whether the game is home or on the road. The Aggies have a prime opportunity to host a marquee SEC showdown with the winner going to the conference title game, they just have to take care of business against Hugh Freeze first.
ACC
Miami (9-1 overall, 5-1 ACC, No. 8 in CFP poll)
Remaining schedule: vs. Wake Forest (NR), at Syracuse (NR)
Breakdown: Wake Forest shouldn’t pose much of a threat for the Hurricanes this week, but a road matchup against Syracuse and Kyle McCord might raise a few eyebrows. Miami controls its own destiny but needs to win out to earn an ACC championship game spot.
SMU (9-1, 6-0, No. 13)
Remaining schedule: at Virginia (NR), Vs. Cal (NR)
Breakdown: Same scenario as always for the Mustangs. Win out, and they’ll ensure themselves a conference title game appearance.
Clemson (8-2, 7-1, No. 17)
Remaining schedule: vs. Citadel (NR), vs. South Carolina (No. 18)
Breakdown: Gonna be completely real with you guys for a second. Neither of Clemson’s final two games matter a lick for playoff purposes. The Tigers have already completed their ACC schedule and won’t get an at-large berth. They’ll need either Miami or SMU to slip up then win the ACC championship to earn a CFP spot.
Big 12
BYU (9-1 overall, 6-1 Big 12, No. 14 in CFP poll)
Remaining schedule: at Arizona State (No. 21), vs. Houston (NR)
Breakdown: The Cougars finally got tripped up and lost to Kansas, and now face a must-win game against Arizona State. If BYU can win, it’s unlikely Houston can stop BYU from advancing to the Big 12 title game.
Colorado (8-2, 6-1, No. 16)
Remaining schedule: at Kansas (NR), vs. Oklahoma State (NR)
Breakdown: Colorado has to make sure it doesn’t let Kansas continue to play spoiler, which is easier said than done considering how the Jayhawks are playing and the contest being on the road. But if the Buffs can win both of their remaining games, they’re guaranteed to be in the conference championship game.
Arizona State (8-2, 5-2, No. 21)
Remaining schedule: vs. BYU (No. 14), at Arizona (NR)
Breakdown: How about those Sun Devils? Arizona State now has a chance to make a statement as a true Cinderella in the Big 12 title race and hosts BYU for a chance to make things really interesting. Outside of Indiana vs. Ohio State, this is the game that probably has the most playoff stakes attached to it this weekend.
Iowa State (8-2, 5-2, No. 22)
Remaining schedule: at Utah, vs. Kansas State
Breakdown: Iowa State is a huge Arizona State fan this weekend, as the Cyclones can’t make the Big 12 title game without some help. If the Sun Devils win, they’ll need some tiebreaker luck to sort itself out with a potential three-team logjam with two conference losses. God help us all if Arizona State wins and Colorado loses a game, too.
Group of Five
Boise State (9-1 overall, 6-0 Mountain West, No. 12 in CFP poll)
Remaining schedule: at Wyoming (NR), vs. Oregon State (NR)
Breakdown: It’s hard to envision Boise State losing either of its two remaining games, but they’ll still have to win their conference title game to get in.
Army (9-0 overall, 7-0 AAC, No. 19 in CFP poll)
Remaining schedule: at Notre Dame (No. 6), vs. UTSA (NR), Navy (will be after the CFP field is set so will not count toward the selection process)
Breakdown: Army’s CFP chances completely come down to this week’s game against Notre Dame. If it wins or plays the Fighting Irish super tight, it has a chance to get in over Boise State even if the Broncos have no slip-ups. It’ll be very hard to do without that.
Tulane (9-2 overall, 7-0 AAC, No. 20 in CFP poll)
Remaining schedule: vs. Memphis
Breakdown: The Green Wave might have a chance to play spoiler for the Group of Five spot if Boise State slips up. Regardless of what happens between Army and Notre Dame, a possible Tulane vs. Army conference championship game would be awesome.
Independent
Notre Dame (9-1 overall, No. 6 in CFP Poll)
Remaining schedule: vs. Army (No. 19), at USC (NR)
Breakdown: Notre Dame needs to win both of its remaining games and it will secure an at-large selection. If it slips up once, it opens the door for five SEC teams and Indiana to all make it.
11W Playoff prediction
Conference champs
- No. 1 Ohio State
- No. 2 Alabama
- No. 3 Miami
- No. 4 Colorado
First-round
- No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State (winner faces Colorado)
- No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Indiana (winner faces Miami)
- No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Georgia (winner faces Alabama)
- No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Ole Miss (winner faces Ohio State)
First teams out
- Tennessee
- SMU
- Texas A&M
- Arizona State
- Army
