The final rankings have been announced before the official 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is revealed on Sunday.
Following Saturday's stunning loss to Michigan, Ohio State has dropped from No. 2 to No. 6, but it should still be in a prime position to host an opening-round CFP game at Ohio Stadium on either Dec. 20 or Dec. 21.
This will be the final article of our weekly Playoff Pursuit series, and it’s no surprise that it’ll probably be the shortest one, considering there’s only a handful of teams still alive for CFP bids at the moment.
As we head into championship weekend, we make one final guess at what the playoff could look like factoring in projected conference winners and the CFP rankings at the end of the article. For now, here’s what it would look like today if we went off the CFP rankings.
THE UPDATED CFP BRACKET PROJECTION pic.twitter.com/5dB1gqvoD0
— ESPN (@espn) December 4, 2024
Before we get to our projections, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana are all locks to make the CFP at this point. Good for the Big Ten. You can write in pen that the Ducks will either be the No. 1 seed or No. 5 seed, depending on what happens in the Big Ten title game. Penn State’s seed is less set in stone, but worst-case scenario the Nittany Lions still should probably host a first-round game unless they get their doors blown off and the committee moves up someone like Tennessee. At this point, I’d be surprised if Indiana is anything other than the No. 10 seed in the field.
As for Ohio State, if you want the Buckeyes to get the highest seed possible, I’d root for a lopsided Oregon win, a lopsided Texas win and a Clemson loss to weaken Georgia’s resume. Ohio State can’t jump Notre Dame, and the Buckeyes likely can’t jump Texas either, even with a loss, considering the Longhorns throttled Michigan on the road. Perhaps the Buckeyes could jump Georgia, seeing as the Bulldogs would have a third loss and each of them would have two wins against teams in the field (assuming Clemson loses). Under those circumstances, perhaps you could get the No. 6 seed. But I still think a No. 7 or No. 8 seed is more likely.
SEC
Texas, Georgia and Tennessee are all locks for the Southeastern Conference. The SEC winner seems destined for the No. 2 seed, and while Texas would still host if it lost, I’m less sure about Georgia being a lock to host if it loses, though it’s still possible. Tennessee seems pretty destined for the eight or nine spot, it just seems a matter of whether the Vols are hosting or not.
Sigh. And yes, somehow, someway, three-loss Alabama, proud owners of losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, is in good shape to make the 12-team field. Considering the CFP rankings for the final teams on the bubble presumably aren’t going to change at all since all of those teams are idle, the only way the Crimson Tide can get knocked out is if Clemson wins the ACC title game and the committee decides to allow SMU in the playoffs as well.
ACC
It’s pretty straightforward here. Clemson has to win to get in, while it’s for sure out with a loss. SMU has a chance to get in as the final at-large if it loses a close contest, but I sure as hell wouldn’t leave my fate to the hands of the CFP committee when an SEC team is knocking on the door.
Big 12
Arizona State vs. Iowa State is arguably the most fun game of championship week and it’s certainly tied with the Mountain West championship for biggest stakes attached to it. The winner is in the CFP, and the loser is out. What’s less clear is if the Big 12 champion will get the final bye if Boise State wins or if that will go to the Broncos. Even though Boise State has been ranked ahead of each of the Big 12 teams, I have a feeling they’ll find a way to make it so the Power Four teams are the ones with byes.
Group of Five
Tulane made it interesting for a little bit, but the Group of Five spot is now essentially down to the Mountain West championship game between UNLV and Boise State. If UNLV wins, it’s almost certainly going to be the No. 12 seed. If Boise State wins, the Broncos could either be the 12 or the No. 4 seed, depending on what the committee decides to do with the Big 12 champion.
Independent
Not much to say here. Notre Dame is done playing and comfortably in the CFP. The Fighting Irish are a lock to host and should be either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in all likelihood.
11W Playoff prediction
Conference champs
- No. 1 Oregon
- No. 2 Texas
- No. 3 SMU
- No. 4 Arizona State
First-round
- No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Boise State (winner faces Arizona State)
- No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Alabama (winner faces SMU)
- No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Indiana (winner faces Texas)
- No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Tennessee (winner faces Oregon)
First teams out
- Miami
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Clemson
Breakdown
For the record, this is not actually how I’d seed the field if these results unfolded. This is me projecting committee mind games. Personally, I’d put Georgia over OSU for the sole purpose of the Bulldogs being ahead of the Buckeyes heading into conference championship weekend and thus I don’t think they should be penalized for playing an extra game.
However, that would give us a rematch against Indiana in the No. 7 vs. 10 game. And while the committee has said they’re not afraid to schedule rematches, we all know they will use whatever logic to get whatever bleeping matchup they want. And I don’t think they want an Indiana vs. OSU rematch.
There’s not much juicier from a ratings perspective that I can think of assuming Oregon and Texas both win of having three Big Ten and three SEC schools clash in round one. Especially a big-name brand like Alabama coming to Ohio Stadium and Tennessee going to Happy Valley.
Anyway, I also think common sense will prevail and the committee will put the Big 12 champion into the final bye. A Clemson win would blow up my bracket entirely, but an SMU win makes it fit together quite nicely.
