We're nearly halfway through the regular season, and the contenders have begun to separate from the pretenders. Though there's still a full back season of football left to be played, you can't help but feel like several head men have already had their geese cooked. Who do you think gets fired among the major program heads and who may be stepping in to replace them? Here's what I got:
(1) The Raging House Fire Tier:
Scott Frost (Nebraska) -- though I understand what a teardown job the Huskers program has become, you gotta admit that the future appears bleak in Lincoln. Frost's off-field controversies, the lack of mental toughness of the team, and the inability of the leadership to right the ship gives Trev Alberts carte blanche to fire an underperforming coach. Nobody gets a trophy for "most one-score losses to Top 10 teams".
The replacement: I actually think Matt Campbell is the best fit. An offensive X's and O's guy who also knows how to assemble a competent assistant coaching staff and has had to find diamonds in the rough in the Midwest and Texas footprint to compensate for a lack of local recruiting talent fits the bill perfectly. The man has experience playing against the B1G (though his record against rival Iowa is somewhat worrying). Throw in the fact that the Big XII is a dying conference, and this might be just the right time to back the Brink's trunks into Ames.
Ed Orgeron (LSU): As delusional as it may seem to fire a head coach who brought home a Heisman trophy and National Championship just two seasons ago, the level of rabid competitiveness is so great in the SEC West that this isn't at all out of the question (Gene Chizik, anyone?). The downside of styling yourself as a CEO-style head coach is that faith in your abilities goes only as far as your perceived ability to hire assistants, and the narrative is swiftly going from "Coach O is a great recruiter who knows how to acquire talented coordinators" to "that guy got unbelievably lucky by somehow having Joe Burrow and Joe Brady in the QB room at the sam time."
The replacement: There's been a recent trend in CFB to hire wunderkind offensive former coordinators who have had success in the program previously (see: Malzahn replacing Chizik, Lincoln Riley taking over for Stoops, and even Ryan Day getting the baton from Meyer). I can see a large segment of the Tiger fanbase clamoring for the AD to bring Joe Brady back. Though young, he's got the Panthers offense looking shockingly competent this season, and can stride into Baton Rouge with the credentials that he helped polish off a Heisman winner and created the blueprint for a CFP championship-grade offense. Whether this is a wise hire or not is up to some serious debate, but I get the sense that the Tiger faithful don't want another godfather-style head man.
Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech): VT's signature upset of UNC looks shabbier and shabbier as the season goes on, and the mantra of "rebuilding year" after "rebuilding year" keeps grating on the Hokie fanbase. Toss in the fact that transfer Hendon Hooker is quietly putting up stellar numbers for Tennessee after taking over the job from Joe Milton, and the questions about the number of high profile transfers leaving Blacksburg suggest a culture problem in the locker room. Apparently the administration was on the fence about firing Fuente last season, but gave him a Covid-19 mulligan. I don't think he survives to see 2022.
The replacement: Virginia Tech finds itself at a crossroads right now. The program has never had success outside of Frank Beamer, and the hiring of Fuente was a middle ground of sorts. The administration could either double down on reclaiming past glory by reaching out to Bud Foster to see if he'd be willing to come out of retirement to bring back the lunchpail workman mentality of the Hokies, or pivoting to novel and dynamic, by pursuing Jamey Chadwell of Coastal Carolina.
(2) Unsurprising Fires for Underperforming Hires Tier:
Justin Wilcox (Cal): I'm honestly shocked that he's survived as long as he has out in Berkeley, but expectations have fallen so dramatically out in the Bay that somehow Wilcox keeps getting at-bats. That said, I could also see the Bears' AD quietly seeing him to the door at the conclusion of a season that started out with a whimper by losing to a solid (but not media-excusable) Nevada Wolfpack team.
The replacement: Cal's high water mark seems to be the Jeff Tedford days, and the program keeps going back to the Fresno State well. Kalen DeBoer has experience as head coach in the NAIA (making four appearances in the NAIA national championship game and winning three of them) and coordinated superb offenses for Tedford, and most recently, for Tom Allen. He has Fresno overachieving in his first year (delivering a stunning knockout to then-ranked UCLA and taking Oregon to the wire) and seems to be earning his QB-whisperer bonafides again in Jake Haener.
Dino Babers (Syracuse): Another fanbase not accustomed to great recent success may be starting to get the sense that a magical 10-3 record in 2018 wasn't so much the product of great coaching, but rather a historically bad ACC. After a 1-10 season last year, I don't think Babers gets another shot if he doesn't break 6 wins this year.
The replacement: Upstate NY is a hard sell, and I doubt that too many up-and-coming head coaches see it as a destination program. That said, a young, aspiring coordinator may see it as a leg up to a better gig, and I can't see how Ole Miss's Jeff Lebby or ASU's Zak Hill could turn down the opportunity to be a head man in a vulnerable ACC.
Matt Wells (Texas Tech): I feel awful for Wells, as I believe he was never given a fair shake at Tech, and the rabid fanbase that refuses to accept any fruit that hasn't grown off the Mike Leach tree has hampered his ability to win the culture wars in Lubbock. He's winning right now after bringing in Air Raid acolyte Sonny Cumbie, but it remains to be seen if the oversized expectations of the Red Raiders will overcome the job he's been able to do by bringing in something new to TTU.
The replacement: Wells is quietly putting together a decent first half of the season for Texas Tech, but three of his wins have come at the expense of underachieving Group of 5 teams. With Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Baylor still on the docket and the fanbase still stinging from an absolute embarrassment against Texas, I think he's going to have to pull off at least one upset against a ranked foe to keep his job. Since the faithful won't accept anything other than an Leach alum, I think Tech invites Sonny Dykes, who has done a remarkable turnaround at in-state SMU, to bring back the face of the aerial attack that first put TTU on the map.
(3) One Way or Another Tier:
Neal Brown (West Virginia): Another under-the-radar underachiever, I actually think that Brown gets another season given the bad feelings in Morgantown from Holgorsen's departure and the downfall of the Big XII brand that make it less than a stellar gig.
Mike Norvell (FSU): Though I don't think it's fair to fire a coach after two seasons (including one defined by a generational pandemic), if there's a fanbase and administration delusional enough to do it, it would be the 'Noles. At this point, signing your name as the head man at Tallahassee is starting to look like a cautionary tale, but there will always be a young, hungry G5 head coach who sees the promise of a marshmallow-soft ACC ripe for the taking.
Manny Diaz (Miami): I'm of the opinion that his 8-3 season last year has bought him enough goodwill to get a second shake in 2022, but the fanbase can't be excited about the fact that the 'Canes haven't converted any of their recruiting successes into palpable on-field performances. The defense has been nonexistent against good offenses, and the QB room has been a turnstile ruined by inexperience, recruiting/transfer busts, and injuries. Like FSU, the ACC is so weak, I don't blame the fanbase from wondering if they're one good head coaching hire away from seizing control of arguably the worst conference in the Power 5.
