These are groupings of team that control their own destiny (and for those that don't how much help they need IF they win out). Don't need 15 replies about "these teams aren't going to win out - we assume they do (and nothing else)!
Things get a lot more clear with the Oklahoma loss.
Total Destiny (win and in, >99%)
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Michigan State
Not Quite Destiny (95-99%)
- Oklahoma State
Needs a Little Help (75-95%)
- Cincinnati
- Michigan
- Oklahoma
Needs a Lot of Help (50-75%)
- Baylor
- Wake Forest
There's a Chance (25-50%)
- Notre Dame
- Texas A&M (if they come back and win, otherwise out)
- NC State
Michigan's nightmare scenario is beating Ohio State and Maryland, but Ohio State losing to Michigan State. If Ohio State can win next week, Michigan and Michigan State swap in the destiny rankings.
Oklahoma State might be a bit high in this, as the scenario where Bama, Ohio State, Oregon, and Oklahoma State win out puts them in ahead of Georgia, which I don't think would be the case. However, chances are one of those teams will lose, and if so, that opens the door for Oklahoma State to take the 4th spot. Cincinnati is going to need two teams to lose to likely make it (I suspect a 1-loss Oklahoma or Oklahoma St B12 champ gets ahead of them, but a 2-loss champ does not).
We could see a 2-loss team making the playoff this year for the first time ever but still the odds do look a bit slim.
