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Breaking Down Playoff Scenarios

+3 HS
Brutus's Hat's picture
November 15, 2021 at 8:40am
67 Comments

Teams that will (likely) be in if they win out:

- Alabama or Georgia (only one can win out)

- Michigan State or Ohio State (only one can win out). If Ohio State beats Michigan State this week, Michigan could take this spot winning out.

- Oregon

- Oklahoma State or Oklahoma

Next Teams in Line:

- 1-loss Georgia

- Undefeated Cincinnati (I have them as the next alternate - they will not pass a 1-loss Georgia, but they will pass a 2-loss Alabama, 2-loss Oregon, 2-loss Oklahoma team, or 2+ loss B1G champ)

- 2-loss Alabama

- 1-loss Wake Forest

- 1-loss Notre Dame 

- 2-loss Ohio State B1G Champ (happens if OSU loses to MSU but MSU loses to Penn State, and OSU beats Michigan and the West Champ, or OSU beats MSU, Michigan loses to Maryland, and Ohio State loses to Michigan).

- 2-loss Baylor, Oklahoma State, or Oklahoma B12 Champ.

- 3-loss Wisconsin B1G champ (3 early losses to decent/good teams and quality wins, would be a last resort team to put in. Sag Predictor has them at #4, FPI has them #10, F+ has them #4). 

My predictions of what actually happens:

  • Alabama beats Georgia in a close game (because Georgia)
  • Ohio State wins out
  • Oregon drops a game to Utah
  • Oklahoma wins in Bedlam, Baylor wins out, and 3-way tie for 2 spots. Each team will be 1-1 against each other. It comes down to score differential. Baylor is +3, Oklahoma -13 thanks to the last minute field goal Baylor put up, and Oklahoma State is +10. This means that Oklahoma needs to win by 12 or more points to get ahead of Oklahoma State. They don't. Oklahoma State plays Baylor in the Championship and wins.
  • Cincinnati runs the table in close games against SMU and Houston.

Playoff Rankings:

1) Alabama

2) Georgia

3) Ohio State

4) Cincinnati

Alabama 42, Cincinnati 17

Georgia 21, Ohio State 24

Ohio State 45, Alabama 41

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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