Things are looking a lot more clear in some areas. Reminder - these rankings are based on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-college-football-predictions/ based on the odds IF a team wins out. Even if it's unlikely a team wins out, it still sees how much a team controls of making the playoffs.
Total Destiny (99%+)
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
Need Some Help (95%+)
- Oklahoma State
- Cincinnati
Needs More Help (75-95%)
- Oklahoma
Needs a Lot of Help (50-75%)
- None
There's a Chance (25-50%)
- Oregon
- Baylor
- Notre Dame
Looking at it overall, we have two teams that will be locked in:
- SEC Champ of Alabama or Georgia
- Big Ten Champ of Ohio State or Michigan
From then, it comes down to B12 Champ and Cincinnati and non-SEC Champ Georgia for the last 2 spots.
To get to teams beyond those, you need to have Bama with 3 losses, Wisconsin/Iowa winning the Big Ten, or Baylor winning the Big 12.
That can open the door for a 2-loss Baylor, 2-loss Oregon champion, a 1-loss Notre Dame.
The biggest winner this week was Cincinnati who saw Oregon and Wake Forest take a dive.
My predictions for the playoffs and seeds:
1) Georgia
2) Ohio State
3) Oklahoma State
4) Cincinnati
I'd personally be hoping that Oklahoma State got the 4 seed, and would be happy to have Alabama, who is probably one of the top 3 teams with a big gap below. If Oklahoma can beat Oklahoma State, but Oklahoma State wins the rematch, I'd expect the seeds to have Cincinnati and Oklahoma State swapped, which would be ideal for Ohio State. I wouldn't be surprised if Alabama got the 4 seed here (or even 3 TBH).
Ohio State fans should root for Big 12 Chaos, and Bama to lose to get to face Cincinnati for an Ohio-Kentucky rivalry game.
