The latest CFP rankings are out. Our Buckeyes are 5th and are hoping that TCU or USC lose and give one of the 4 playoff spots to them. With that being said, the argument has been thrown around that regardless of the results of the forthcoming conference championship games, the Buckeyes shouldn't move ahead of TCU or USC.
Why?
Because Ohio State didn't even reach their own conference title game. This is an interesting thought: it doesn't just apply to this season and the predicament the Buckeyes find themselves in. Here's what I have to say to counter that argument.
The operative phrases here are "13th data point" and "body of work." The conference title games are that 13th data point that provide more information regarding just how good a team is, or whether they are one of the 4 best teams in the nation. Nobody said, however, that the 13th data point is only supposed to help a team. Data is data. It can reflect positively or negatively on a team. If TCU/USC were to lose next weekend, that would help us understand how good their teams are, when considering their total body of work across the season.
Does this create an unfortunate situation for some teams where playing in a conference title game puts them at risk for producing bad data? Of course it does. 2017 Wisconsin (12-0 regular season) would like a word. But at the same time, the fact that the teams in question are matched up against other quality teams provides the CFP committee with the highest quality data in determining whether a team is good enough to be in the Playoff or not.
Is this a foolproof plan? No. One might ask: "what do we have to gain from watching USC play Utah again?" Utah beat USC at home, during a night game, in one of the best environments this season and lost by a single point. How much better than Utah are they on a neutral field? There's no way to know unless the game is played. The same principle applies to TCU against Kansas State this weekend. Each of these games is valuable to the committee for the purpose of producing data. That is the risk of this coming weekend. Only the teams that are playing can add to their resumes, but only the teams that are playing can hurt their resumes as well. Just keep in mind, from the perspective of the CFP Committee, data is data.
