I got bored on this Saturday and decided to think about how just a few games could have changed an entire season or even the trajectory of the sport. I wanted to see if anyone could come up with a more chaotic playoff scenario from any season since the playoff started than what I came up with. Only 2 rules:
1. You can only flip the result of 3 games in a season, each one has to be within at most one possession.
2. All assumptions have to be within reason (i.e. if a team beat a team earlier in the season, it is reasonable to assume they would win again in a rematch)
I went ahead and did the 2015 season as there were many extremely close games this season that had a direct impact on the playoff race or conference championships.
My 3 Games:
1. Arkansas @ Ole Miss - Arkansas originally won this game 53-52 OT. This game is notorious for having one of the most improbable plays of all time and this one play affecting the rest of the season. On 4th and 25, down 52-45 in OT, Arkansas picks up the 1st down on one of the luckiest laterals of all time. If Arkansas doesn't pick it up, Ole Miss wins the SEC West and plays Florida in the SEC Championship game, who they got blown out by earlier in the season. Alabama misses the SEC Championship game at 11-1. Completely changes the SEC as Florida likely wins the rematch and finishes as 11-2 SEC Champs.
2. Washington State @ Oregon - Wazzu initially won this game 45-38 OT. Wazzu scored a touchdown to send it to OT with 0:01 left on the class. If Wazzu doesn't get this TD, Oregon wins the Pac-12 North and likely wins a rematch against USC, who they blew out earlier in the season. Oregon finishes as 11-2 PAC-12 champs, Stanford instead finishes as 10-2 non-champs and is not in the playoff or NY6 discussion.
3. Notre Dame @ Clemson - Clemson originally won this game 24-22. Notre Dame drove down the field and scored to make it 24-22 with 6 seconds left, but missed the 2 point conversion to tie the game. If Notre Dame gets the 2 point conversion and wins it in OT, Notre Dame finishes 11-1 and Clemson finishes 12-1. Not completely chaotic, but definitely makes the playoff picture murkier.
Resulting Playoff Picture (My hypothetical rankings):
1. 13-0 B1G champs Michigan State (4 top-15 wins over 12-1 Iowa, 11-1 Ohio State, 11-2 PAC-12 champ Oregon, and 9-3 Michigan undoubtedly gives them the #1 seed with all the chaos)
2. 12-1 ACC champs Clemson (Pretty weak schedule, but a win over FSU, who beat SEC Champ Florida, secures their playoff spot)
3. 11-1 Notre Dame (Also a weak schedule, but win over Clemson means something even with the week 12 loss to Stanford)
4. 11-1 Big 12 champs Oklahoma (Easily a stronger schedule than Florida plus only having 1 loss makes up for lack of championship game. There's no way the CFP punishes the Big 12 two years in a row for this, right?)
5. 11-2 SEC champs Florida (SEC championship speaks volumes but the committee did not respect Florida at all in reality, ranking them #12 even before the loss to Alabama in the SEC championship. A win over a top 10 Ole Miss in this hypothetical SEC championship game might bump them up a little, not sure its enough to get in the playoff)
6. 12-1 Iowa
7. 11-1 Alabama
8. 11-2 PAC-12 champs Oregon
9. 11-1 Ohio State
Some notes:
- Sparty could have won a title, who knows how different college football would have been had the B1G won the first 2 CFPs
- Alabama would have missed out on a title in the first 2 playoffs and some would question if Saban could compete in the playoff era
- Ohio State and Alabama would have likely played in the Fiesta Bowl in this scenario. A rematch of the 2014 game with the two best rosters in the country would have been one of the best non-championship bowl games ever, IMO.
Thoughts? Any one else think they can come up with a similar scenario?
