Week 11 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150382/fake-bcs-rankings-week-11
Week 12 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150598/fake-bcs-rankings-week-12
Week 13 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150792/fake-bcs-rankings-week-13
Edit: Added this week's CFP Rankings
Edit 2: Apparently the Massey Composite has the Anderson rankings so I am using the traditional BCS formula with the Anderson rankings sourced from the Massey Composite. Massey links to the same website that I normally use for Anderson and Hester, which is still showing last year's final rankings. I'm confused how Massey is getting updated rankings here but maybe the formula was open-sourced and someone else computed it. In any case, it did not impact anyone's ranking in the top 15 and only made minor changes to the computer average for most teams.
Anderson and Hester must be TTUN fans since their page is still showing them as being the top from last season. So no rankings for A&H which means I'm still using my modified computer formula. Maybe they quit because of the switch to the 12 team format and they just didn't want to keep doing it. IDK. It doesn't matter, I guess.
We had lots of ranked teams lose this week, including some upsets in the SEC (you hate to see it). So we finally have 2 teams in the ACC in the field of 12, as well as lots of movement in the rankings. Let's dive in.
| Team | Conf | Record | BCS Rank | BCS Average | AP Poll | AP Avg | Coaches | Coaches Avg | Computer | Computer Avg | CFP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | B10 | 11-0 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 |
| Ohio St | B10 | 10-1 | 2 | 0.9593 | 2 | 0.9593 | 2 | 0.9585 | 2 | 0.9600 | 2 |
| Texas | SEC | 10-1 | 3 | 0.9087 | 3 | 0.9148 | 3 | 0.9215 | 3 | 0.8900 | 3 |
| Penn St | B10 | 10-1 | 4 | 0.8592 | 4 | 0.8531 | 4 | 0.8545 | 4 | 0.8700 | 4 |
| Notre Dame | FBSI | 10-1 | 5 | 0.8348 | 5 | 0.8380 | 5 | 0.8364 | 5 | 0.8300 | 5 |
| Georgia | SEC | 9-2 | 6 | 0.7955 | 6 | 0.8144 | 6 | 0.8022 | 6 | 0.7700 | 7 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 10-1 | 7 | 0.7342 | 8 | 0.7187 | 7 | 0.7440 | 9 | 0.7400 | 6 |
| SMU | ACC | 10-1 | 8 | 0.6944 | 9 | 0.6564 | 9 | 0.6669 | 7 | 0.7600 | 9 |
| Indiana | B10 | 10-1 | 9 | 0.6817 | 10 | 0.6544 | 10 | 0.6305 | 7 | 0.7600 | 10 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 9-2 | 10 | 0.6483 | 7 | 0.7279 | 8 | 0.7069 | 12 | 0.5100 | 8 |
| Boise St | MWC | 10-1 | 11 | 0.6149 | 11 | 0.6452 | 11 | 0.6095 | 10 | 0.5900 | 11 |
| Clemson | ACC | 9-2 | 12 | 0.5215 | 12 | 0.5174 | 12 | 0.5673 | 13 | 0.4800 | 12 |
| Alabama | SEC | 8-3 | 13 | 0.5021 | 13 | 0.4846 | 13 | 0.4516 | 11 | 0.5700 | 13 |
| Arizona St | B12 | 9-2 | 14 | 0.4491 | 14 | 0.4767 | 15 | 0.4305 | 15 | 0.4400 | 16 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 8-3 | 15 | 0.4208 | 16 | 0.4190 | 14 | 0.4335 | 17 | 0.4100 | 15 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 8-3 | 16 | 0.4024 | 15 | 0.4334 | 16 | 0.4138 | 18 | 0.3600 | 14 |
| Iowa St | B12 | 9-2 | 17 | 0.3669 | 17 | 0.3266 | 17 | 0.3440 | 16 | 0.4300 | 18 |
| BYU | B12 | 9-2 | 18 | 0.3370 | 19 | 0.2918 | 20 | 0.2393 | 13 | 0.4800 | 19 |
| Tulane | AAC | 9-2 | 19 | 0.2560 | 18 | 0.2925 | 18 | 0.3156 | 21 | 0.1600 | 17 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8-3 | 20 | 0.2171 | 20 | 0.2616 | 19 | 0.2596 | 22 | 0.1300 | 20 |
| Kansas St | B12 | 8-3 | 21 | 0.1515 | NR | 0.0643 | NR | 0.0902 | 19 | 0.3000 | 24 |
| UNLV | MWC | 9-2 | 22 | 0.1335 | 21 | 0.1515 | 21 | 0.1491 | 23 | 0.1000 | 22 |
| Illinois | B10 | 8-3 | 23 | 0.1298 | 22 | 0.1233 | 25 | 0.0960 | 20 | 0.1700 | 23 |
| Missouri | SEC | 8-3 | 24 | 0.0869 | 24 | 0.0931 | 24 | 0.1076 | NR | 0.0600 | 21 |
| Army | AAC | 9-1 | 25 | 0.0791 | 25 | 0.0872 | 22 | 0.1200 | NR | 0.0300 | NR |
CFP Seedings:
- Oregon (1)
- Texas (3)
- Miami FL (7)
- Boise State (11)
- Ohio State (2)
- Penn State (4)
- Notre Dame (5)
- Georgia (6)
- SMU (8)
- Indiana (9)
- Tennessee (10)
- Arizona State (14)
Resulting Matchups:
- SMU (8 - 0.6855) at Georgia (6 - 0.8055). Winner plays Oregon (1 - 1.0000)
- Arizona State (14 - 0.4446) at Ohio State (2 - 0.9593). Winner plays Boise State (11 - 0.6093)
- Tennessee (10 - 0.6649) at Penn State (4 - 0.8537). Winner plays Miami FL (7 - 0.7365)
- Indiana (9 - 0.6817) at Notre Dame (5 - 0.8381). Winner plays Texas (3 - 0.9098)
When I am doing these rankings, I like to look at where the human polls and the computers disagree. Particularly after teams lose. Indiana got punished, dropping from 5 to 10 in the polls where the computers had them as 4 last week, only dropping to 7. Meanwhile, polls are valuing Tennessee while the computers are not (I know that Tennessee won big in CSS over the weekend while 3 SEC teams that didn't participate lost to conference foes in game they were favored to win). This means that Tennessee has to play Penn State instead of Notre Dame and the reverse for Indiana. Those are better matchups anyway, though I wouldn't mind seeing Indiana have a chance to play Penn State. Indiana vs Notre Dame has more intrigue anyway with the in-state rivalry.
Outside of Indiana/Tennessee, you have to go all the way to BYU at 18 before there is a big disagreement between the computers and the polls. Since that doesn't really impact selection into the CFP, I suppose that the system is working well and we have some good rankings at this point in the season. Still a lot of games to play this weekend, especially The Game. Who the B12 ends up sending is going to be a huge tossup, but regardless they probably end up at 12 unless Boise State doesn't win the MWC. Sadly, the AAC's chance at a playoff berth died 49-14 at the hands of Notre Dame Saturday night.
Go Bucks, beat TTUN. Go Army, beat Navy.
