Michigan's success* since they started cheating in 2021 has led to six players drafted in the 1st and 2nd round of the NFL Draft.
Theoretically, these players were properly drafted and their draft stock definitely didn't get inflated... right? Let's check the tape:
Mazi Smith (R1 2023)
Win or lose Mazi smith stats dont change. My boy just there for the ride
Cowboys, you drafted a BUST! pic.twitter.com/Wa8y6cYGAv
— Laz (@Philly_Laz) September 25, 2023
Mazi Smith was the worst first round pick in 2023 and it's not particularly close. Brought in to be an elite run defender, Smith couldn't even get on the field. When he did, this happened:
Some #Cowboys fans are calling out first round DT Mazi Smith after the Bills ran for over 260 yards.
Smith was drafted to be a "run defender" and with Johnathan Hankins out, Cowboys fans wanted to see what Mazi could possibly do.
Some fans are already calling Smith a Bust. pic.twitter.com/5ZHXAmbAK7
— NFLCentral (@NFLTrenchBattle) December 18, 2023
Smith finished the year playing only four snaps, as the Packers ran all over the Cowboys.
Luke Schoonmaker (R2 2023)
Not to be outdone, Schoonmaker was clearly the worst second round pick in 2023.
Was there a worse pick in the draft than @Dallascowboys 2nd rounder @LukeSchoonmaker @ pick 58? Dude is the most vanilla, plain Jane 3rd string TE/special teamer.
Besides maybe his Michigan teammate @mazismith at pick 26 w/ his 8 tackles.
Garbage scouting @Wmcrice88
— John Doe (@j_lev091) December 18, 2023
Cowboy fans have banned Michigan players at this year's draft and for good reason.
2023 draft class through the first 5 weeks:
Mazi - doesnt play
Schoonmaker - Run blocking TE2 thats caught 1/5 targets (2 drops)
Demarvion Overshown - Torn ACL
Viliami Fehoko - healthy scratch every week
Asim Richards - 3rd string G/T
Eric Scott Jr. - healthy scratch
— Defy (@defytalkcowboys) October 9, 2023
The Cowboys basically spent a 2nd round pick on a special teamer.
Dax Hill (R1 2022) and DJ Turner (R2 2023)
Pickens beats Turner off the line and then Dax Hill takes a terrible angle. pic.twitter.com/lwHIIuUlT5
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) December 23, 2023
Lumping Hill and Turner together after they combined for repeated blown coverages and missed tackles for the Bengals last season. Ask any Bengals fan - they are not starting caliber NFL players.
Dax Hill and DJ Turner looking like their fellow Michigan men DBs on Monday night against Michael Penix (I picked Michigan) pic.twitter.com/7CCubiSl9Q
— Joe DiTullio (@DiTullioJoe) January 7, 2024
Dax hill and dj turner duo pic.twitter.com/ieRvHxLwfj
— Slig (@goonmasterio) December 23, 2023
They graded out as two of the worst players in the NFL. Two guys praised for their football IQ and play recognition ability in college, were constantly getting torched for huge plays.
Aidan Hutchinson (R1 2022)
Am I going to get cancelled if I say Aidan Hutchinson has officially settled in as a mediocre-at-best edge defender in year 2? https://t.co/m7Kz7DB07e
— CJ Golson (@CJGolson) December 11, 2023
Hutchinson has been average, but the fact that he was drafted to his hometown Lions has skewed his public perception. He is nowhere close to a superstar pass rusher. Even though the Lions have an abysmal pass rush, other teams do not double team him. Despite this, Hutchinson still delivers a below average pass rush win rate.
Double team rate at edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y), updated through Week 13.
Micah Parsons is obliterating the field in win rate.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/8egFLzKGio
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 6, 2023
Hutchinson is not even impacting the game to the level of Travon Walker. Has he delivered on the value of the #2 pick? Absolutely not.
George Kittle absolutely DESTROYED Aidan Hutchinson pic.twitter.com/I2KU62Ol18
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) January 29, 2024
When the Lions needed him most, Hutchinson delivered zero pressures in their playoff loss to the 49ers.
David Ojabo (R2 2022)
Ojabo has been alternating between injured and so atrocious that he needs to be benched.
Do yall still have faith in David Ojabo or nah pic.twitter.com/kDPcR8XSs4
— khi (@SolidKhi1) March 20, 2024
When he did get on the field, Ojabo delivered a pass rush win rate of below 1%, good for worst in the entire NFL.
Conclusion
It's not just that these Michigan players are mildly disappointing - they are busting at a historic rate since 2021.
Read the draft scouting reports and a few common themes start to emerge:
- Outstanding tape, always in the right place at the right time
- High football IQ, excellent play anticipation
- Incredible run game recognition, triggers downhill quickly
Pretty interesting considering, during the same two year window, CJ Stroud, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Paris Johnson, and Dawand Jones all delivered outstanding rookie seasons.
But Michigan just develops better, right?