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Fake BCS Rankings - Week 11

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I_Run_The_Dave's picture
November 4, 2024 at 12:24pm
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Starting up my (hopefully weekly) forum post taking a look at what the BCS would do if they still existed.

Edit: I added a column for the CFP rankings to compare with the BCS results.  Also, the BCS results I had previously shared do not match at all with what my spreadsheet is showing today so I'm not sure what I did wrong.  It is most noticeable for BYU.  The rankings should be accurate now.  I also had some of the matchups wrong, those are corrected below.

For the uninitiated, the BCS used a combination of polls and computer rankings to decide the top 2 teams in the country, which would then play in the BCS championship game, from 1998 until 2013 when it was replaced by the 4 team CFP.  It's worth noting that "BCS Holdings, LLC" owns the CFP, so although the BCS rankings no longer exist, the institution that commissioned them does and runs the playoff system.

The formula changed over the years, but eventually settled on the following -- take the USA Today Coaches poll, the Harris Poll (created specifically for the BCS when the AP poll opted out), and the Computer average, weighting these 3 equally, to decide on the rankings.  The computer average was derived from 6 computer rankings: Anderson and Hester; the Colley Matrix, Billingsley, Sagarin, Massey, and Wolfe.  Each computer ranking would rank their top 25 and you would receive 1 point for being 25 and 25 points for being 1, etc.  Outside the top 25 yields 0 points.  You would then remove the top ranking and bottom ranking for each team for a maximum of 100 points.  Divide by 100 to get the computer average for each team.

For the past several years I have made the effort to reproduce these rankings.  Since the Harris Poll no longer exists, I have replaced it with the AP Poll which at one point was part of the rankings, and have otherwise preserved the formula.

This week, I have rankings for 5 of the 6 computers (Anderson and Hester hasn't published a ranking yet) so I am modifying the formula to remove the top and bottom score and then divide the remaining 3 by 75 instead.  I will then take these rankings and mock up what a playoff might look like, under the assumption that the top ranked team from each conference gets the bye and/or automatic bid.

Fake BCS Rankings - Week 11 2024
Team Conf Record BCS Rank BCS Average AP Poll AP Avg Coaches Coaches Avg Computer Computer Avg CFP Rank
Oregon B10 9-0 1 0.9998 1 1.0000 1 0.9993 1 1.0000 1
Ohio St B10 7-1 2 0.9286 3 0.9303 3 0.9222 2 0.9333 2
Georgia SEC 7-1 3 0.9000 2 0.9348 2 0.9385 5 0.8267 3
Miami FL ACC 9-0 4 0.8780 4 0.8697 4 0.8844 3 0.8800 4
Texas SEC 7-1 5 0.8294 5 0.8452 5 0.8430 6 0.8000 5
BYU B12 8-0 6 0.7442 9 0.6994 9 0.6800 4 0.8533 9
Indiana B10 9-0 7 0.7255 8 0.7245 10 0.6785 7 0.7733 8
Penn St B10 7-1 8 0.7137 6 0.7471 7 0.7274 9 0.6667 6
Tennessee SEC 7-1 9 0.6950 7 0.7419 6 0.7696 11 0.5733 7
Notre Dame FBSI 7-1 10 0.6532 10 0.6877 8 0.7119 12 0.5600 10
Alabama SEC 6-2 11 0.5993 11 0.5594 11 0.5719 9 0.6667 11
SMU ACC 8-1 12 0.5373 13 0.4852 15 0.4467 8 0.6800 13
Boise St MWC 7-1 13 0.5042 12 0.5503 14 0.4556 13 0.5067 12
LSU SEC 6-2 14 0.4644 14 0.4561 13 0.4837 14 0.4533 15
Mississippi SEC 7-2 15 0.4227 16 0.4213 12 0.4867 17 0.3600 16
Texas A&M SEC 7-2 16 0.3903 15 0.4271 16 0.3837 17 0.3600 14
Iowa St B12 7-1 17 0.3868 17 0.3819 18 0.3785 16 0.4000 17
Clemson ACC 6-2 18 0.2850 19 0.2884 17 0.3800 22 0.1867 23
Pittsburgh ACC 7-1 19 0.2387 23 0.1310 23 0.1319 14 0.4533 18
Washington St P12 7-1 20 0.2256 20 0.2265 20 0.2104 20 0.2400 21
Army AAC 8-0 21 0.2182 18 0.3019 19 0.2993 24 0.0533 25
Kansas St B12 7-2 22 0.2051 22 0.1465 21 0.1489 19 0.3200 19
Louisville ACC 6-3 23 0.1097 25 0.0742 NR 0.0281 21 0.2267 22
Colorado B12 6-2 24 0.0987 21 0.1510 24 0.0919 24 0.0533 20
South Carolina SEC 5-3 25 0.0740 NR 0.0374 NR 0.0244 23 0.1600 NR

CFP Seedings:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Miami (FL)
4. BYU
5. Ohio State
6. Texas
7. Indiana
8. Penn State
9. Tennessee
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State

This creates some interesting matchups. 

  • Ohio State would get Boise State and then BYU back to back.  I like our chances there (the coveted 5th spot, after all).
  • Texas gets to play Alabama with the winner facing Georgia, nothing wrong with a little SEC playoff cannibalism there. My mistake, the winner plays Miami in this scenario.
  • Then we have Indiana vs Notre Dame with some in-state intrigue going on, with the winner playing Miami (Indiana with a very good chance at the semifinals there) Actually Georgia.  Indiana is probably not beating Georgia.
  • And Penn State with the chance to knock out Tennessee in the "not quite elite but wish that we were" matchup, the winner then playing Oregon.

Obviously there are many games ahead where some of these teams will play each other, so the final shakeup will probably not look exactly like this.  If Miami or BYU falter in there conference championships (or lose before then) it definitely makes things more interesting (and easier for the 5/6 seeds).  

Looking at the rankings themselves (as opposed to the seedings), I do like Ohio State at 2 over Georgia.  I actually thought the polls might move us up to 2 after beating PSU and the 1 point loss being to the unanimous #1, but apparently beating Texas and losing to Alabama (2 losses) is a better resume?  It's probably a wash and how close the two teams are in the polls (not a lot of distance between 2 and 3 there) shows that.  For seeding it doesn't matter as we drop to 5 either way.

The computers like Indiana more than the Polls do, and these formulas generally do not include margin of victory in their calculations (I am using the BCS version of Massey that is compliant in this way, for example), but even if they did Indiana has been beating teams by double digits (albeit with a weaker SOS).  We'll see if they are for real in 3 weeks, unless they stumble before then.  I don't know why the polls think 1 loss PSU is better than Indiana given that neither had played a particularly tough slate until PSU played us (and lost).

The first CFP rankings come out tomorrow, very curious to see how their rankings line up with the BCS computers.  And whether or not they release full rankings or just seedings, elevating the automatic qualifiers/potential conference champions to the top 4.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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