After dropping a nailbiter to #5 Notre Dame on Sunday, Ohio State gears up for the start of B1G play.  The slate kicks off with Penn State, who comes to town riding a high-flying offense. 

Penn State is 6-3 this year, with victories over Penn, Cleveland State, Fairfield, Furman, Hobart, and Stony Brook.  The Lions' 3 losses came againat Villanova, Cornell, and Robert Morris. 

Penn State won big, and lost close this year, but if we're being honest, they have yet to really play a tough team.  No disrespect to the other teams on their schedule, but Penn State needs to show well in-conference to have a prayer of making the national tournament.

That said, Penn State does what Ohio State can't: score goals.  PSU has hit double digits  in 7 of their 9 games on the season, including a 17-16 OT loss to Villanova in their opener.  Penn State is #5 nationally in scoring offense, averaging 13.44 goals per game. 

They are led by Mac O'Keefe, a sophomore attackman, who has lit up the scoresheet with 23 goals and 8 assists.  Junior middie Kevin Hill has added 17 goals and 5 assists, while fellow junior middie Nick Spillane has contributed 13 goals and 18 assists to tie O'Keefe for the team lead in points.

These, obviously, are gaudy stats, but are undermined by a glaring 7 goal output against Cornell.  Cornell is 24th nationally in goals allowed per game with 9.13.  Robert Morris, who won 12-9, holds teams to just 8.13 goals per game.  Those two teams both held Penn State under 10 goals. 

As you might have guessed, Ohio State is #9 in goals allowed, at 8.44 goals per game.  Against stout defenses, Penn State struggles.  This is a positive for Ohio State, as long as they bring the same defensive effort they did against Notre Dame. 

Defensively, Penn State gives up 9.33 goals per game, good for 26th nationally.  The Lions are led by Mike Aronow, Chris Sabia, and Brayden Peck.  Peck, a true freshman, has started 8 of 9 games at close D. 

Sabia has parlayed his playing time into 4 goals as a pole, along with 13 groundballs and 15 caused turnovers.  Aronow has 12 gbs and 4 caused turnovers on the year, while Peck has 8 groundballs and a single caused turnover.  Obviously, the man to watch is Sabia, and you can safely bet the rent that Leclaire will draw his attention tomorrow. 

Despite a fairly middling defense, Ohio State will need to watch out, as the Buckeyes are currently only scoring 9.44 goals per game. 

47th in total offense isn't going to cut it when going up against the #5 offense in the country, and #1 in the B1G.  If Penn State jumps out to an early lead, this could fet ugly.

One major factor in the Lions' favor is FOGO Gerard Arceri.  Arceri has won 152 of 216 faceoffs, good for 70% to accompany his 112 groundballs.  The man will be an absolute handful for the Buckeyes on Saturday, as Inacio and Feliziani haven't quite worked all the kinks out yet at the faceoff X. 

Arceri has also poured in 5 goals to aid the cause, not too shabby for a player who usually just dumps and subs off.  Even a 40% win rate would do wonders for the Buckeye cause.

At goalie, Penn State starts sophomore Colby Kneese.  Kneese has started all 9 games, and only rarely has he been spelled by his backups.    He is currently sporting a robust .549 save percentage, good for 15th nationally and 1st in the Big Ten. 

However good or bad the defense is, Kneese will stop shots.  That's a problem for an Ohio State offense that has had trouble converting chances.  The game against Towson springs to mind. 

Finally, the area that Ohio State and Penn State both struggle in is special teams.  Penn State is 54th nationally, and last in the B1G, in EMOs.  The Lions have only scored 5 goals in 19 man up opportunities.  While exceptionally poor, Penn State has balanced that by being quite good at stopping opponents while on Man Down. 

Teams have only scored 6 goals on 26 tries, putting Penn State in a tie for 11th in Man Down defense.  Ohio State is still bottomfeeding on EMOs, only scoring 7 times in 26 tries.  Unfortunately, the Buckeyes haven't been stout while Man Down, either. 

The Buckeyes have given up a sieve-like 11 goals in 23 opportunities, good for 61st nationally, last in the Big Ten, and shaming all their families.  It's been a rough year on special teams, so fingers crossed not mamy penalties are called.

All in all, this is a good litmus test for the remainder of the season.  Ohio State needs to get off on the right foot, as it is murderer's row the next 4 weeks. 

Amateur prediction: Ohio State 11, bad guys 10 in OT.