This is it. 13 games, and everything comes down to one last battle, at home, against a high-flying Rutgers team (so weird for Rutgers to be good at, well, anything) in the Shoe.
A week after a massive, massive win over Maryland, the Buckeyes are fighting for their postseason lives. And, finally, there is a ray of hope for the offensive unit.
This Rutgers team is going to be an absolute monster to defend against, and the Buckeyes defense will have their work cut out for them. Rutgers currently is on a tear at 9-4, with an offense that has been held below double digits only twice all season, the last time being Pi Day 2018 (3/14 for the non-math people).
Rutgers is led by senior attackman Jules Heningburg, who has dominated the scoresheet all year. Heningburg has scored 34 goals and handed out 31 assists, leading all scorers with 65 points. Heningburg is the focal point of the Rutgers offense, rightly so, and is obviously equally comfortable feeding or scoring.
Helping out Heningburg is sophomore attackman Kieran Mullins, who has 30 goals and 17 assists on the year. As a team, Rutgers has 5 players with at least 22 points. That's a whole lot, and shows just how much you have to be on when playing defense.
The Knights average 11.69 goals per game, good for 16th nationally, though only 4th in the Big 10. I don't care what anyone says, the Big Ten is the deepest and toughest lacrosse conference in the country. And it is not close.
Rutgers, on film, likes to play fast, score fast, and score in bunches. The Knights are absolutely lethal in transition, which makes every turnover a big problem. Ohio State is one of the most patient teams in the country with the ball, but average over 10 turnovers a game. That's a problem.
Defensively, Rutgers starts redshirt freshman Garrett Bullett out of Utah. I mention that because Utah has quietly become a major producer of D1 talent in lacrosse, in a very, very short amount of time. The University of Utah is going D1 next year, and this trend is likely only going to get stronger. Be on the lookout for a Denver-Utes doubleheader some weekend in 2020 or beyond.
Also starting at close D are seniors Alex Bronzo and Michael Rexrode, which may be one of the coolest last names I have ever heard. As a unit, the defense gives up 9.31 goals per game, good for 21st nationally and 3rd in the Big Ten.
That's pretty good, considering how fast the Knights generally like to play. If the Buckeyes keep up their offensive renaissance, however, there should be plenty of opportunities to get some goals. Hopefully we see Jasinski and Chell add some more points to their totals.
At the faceoff X, Rutgers struggles. The Knights rotate 2 seniors at FOGO, and neither are incredibly effective. Senior Joe Francisco is winning .508 percent of his faceoffs, while senior Alex Schoen is at an even .500. Both have played 11 games, though Francisco has taken 83 more draws.
Justin Inacio is at .571 on the year in winning percentage, though he has improved each week by leaps and bounds. And he is only a true freshman. Inacio could very well be the key to keeping Rutgers in check and prevent their potent offense from taking the field. He has the talent to do it, and is battle-tested against some of the top FOGOs in the country.
Funnily enough, Ohio State and Rutgers are nearly equally inept when it comes to special teams. The Scarlet Knights are only converting .281 of their EMOs, scoring 9 times on 32 chances. We’ve already seen how abysmal the Buckeyes have been on EMOs, and they’ve converted 11 of 38 for a .289 conversion percentage.
Penalties were not a major factor this week, and, barring a disastrous turn of events, I don’t believe they will have a major impact this week either. Rutgers does, however, only allow opponents to convert on .289 percent of their chances, so Ohio State really does need to take advantage of the opportunities they are given as they arise. Still, EMOs for either side seem to be a bit of an exercise in futility.
Goalie play for the Knights and Buckeyes seems about equal as well. Rutgers has started senior Max Edelmann in all 13 games, and he has played every single minute of the season. No rotations, no breathers, he’s been an iron man.
Edelmann sports a 9.29 goals against average, good for 22nd in the country. Ohio State has been rolling with Josh Kirson, who has a nearly identical 9.65 goals against average. Neither keeper seems to be a world-beater, so it should make for some decent opportunities for both offenses. This should be a very, very fun game. And I am excited to see how it plays out.
Amateur prediction: Ohio State wins, 13-12 in OT.
