Given the multiple previews for the Wolverines from Ann Arbor, this will be a more relaxed breakdown, as there's not much else to review at this point. We'll start with final predictions.
Ohio State 13, TTUN 11.
The teams are pretty evenly matched up, and there's a more than non-zero chance the Buckeyes completely crap the bed and exit in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. At this point, not much of anything would surprise me. So, let's talk about what I want to talk about for the remainder of this free post.
It's no secret, if you've been following along with these bits of my ramblings, that the defense for Ohio State lacrosse has been far poorer than is acceptable. The Buckeyes haven't really been a lockdown team since 2018. There are two reasons for this.
First, the defenders haven't been up to snuff off-ball and on-ball since Ben Randall left following the 2018 season. The poles are good enough to cover the ball carrier, but that's not sufficient at the DI level. Players need to cover ball carriers AND be a presence away from the ball. Issues arise because of a lack of either communication or understanding the defensive scheme.
The first slide comes often, but the second slide is always either late or nonexistent. With teams like Maryland, Johns Hopkins, and Penn State in the conference, that causes major issues. Rutgers too, when they magically get a bunch of starters in their mid-20s who have been playing lacrosse longer than some of their teammates have been alive. Ball movement, and player movement somewhat, really hurts the Buckeyes on defense.
Compounding this issue is the fact that the Buckeyes don't have a good SSDM unit right now. The shorties have been having a rough 2021, and that's made a struggling defense that much worse. Connor Cmiel, a true freshman, has been decent, but not dominant. None of his teammates have really been that good. At this point, Ryan Terefenko is not particularly locked into the SSDM role, and so he will be considered an outlier.
The seniors at SSDM have been below average to really not good, on-ball and off-ball. That escalates both the urgency and frequency of defensive rotations, which we've already established isn't the Buckeyes' best point of execution. Take a weakness and make it weaker, you're looking at giving up 22 goals to Rutgers.
The Buckeyes played really well against TTUN last time out, so this isn't an indictment of them against teams who are a little less talented or cohesive. But this remains an issue against teams that are as talented, or more talented, than the Buckeyes. I think there's a better than average chance the Buckeyes can go 3-0 against the Wolverines. But they're not going any further, and they're not going to the national tournament.
Secondly, the goalkeeping for Ohio State has been bad since Tom Carey manned the spot in 2017. At this point, we can only hope the next generation of Buckeyes comes along nicely, because I'm lost as to where the team goes from here. Van de Bovenkamp is adequate, but not a game-changer. His backup, Skylar Wahlund, was a sieve. Van de Bovenkamp moves on after this year. Henry Blake comes in the fall as a true freshman from a non-power school, and who knows how well he'll do.
If it were me, I'm trying to get UNC's backup keeper in the portal for next year. Much like the defense, I don't think the Buckeyes struggle at keeper enough to get a first-round exit. That said, the Wolverines have two 5-star players on attack tomorrow. And Michael Boehm is going to be special. The Buckeyes are going to seriously regret not getting his commitment.
Tomorrow, Josh Zawada, Michael Boehm, and John Kiracofe will be the Wolverines' impact players. The defense for TTUN will be trash. The offense will be decent to good, depending on what happens with Zawada and Boehm.
Ohio State won't run away in the final matchup. But they should get the W. Then we'll be back to watch Maryland curbstomp them into a merciful end to the 2021 season. And the real work starts.
Go Bucks!
