It's two weeks into Ohio State's season, and the Buckeyes roll into Chapel Hill with a 2-0 record. The tuneup games will now cease, as Ohio State hits the teeth of their schedule with a game against a top 5 opponent. It's a rare treat to see these sorts of high-powered out of conference games, so whatever happens, we're going to see some exceptional lacrosse.

The jump from Detroit Mercy and Cleveland State to North Carolina is high, even though the Tar Heels haven't exactly blown the doors off their opening opponents. This will be the first time Ohio State is really at a talent disadvantage, and we will see how they adapt to the challenge.

Offense

North Carolina has Chris Gray (#4), probably the best offensive player in the country during his entire career. That's including during his time at Boston. Gray is a much better scoring Grant Ament, in that he is so talented dodging the entire field is tilted toward wherever Gray is positioned on the field. The improvement in North Carolina's offense once Gray arrived was stark, and he pours nitrous into that engine with the ball in his stick.

Ohio State hasn't had a player like Chris Gray ever suit up for them. There isn't a suitable facsimile of Gray's abilities on the roster. The defense is going to have its hands full from the opening whistle, and they're going to get Gray at full go. It's going to be a rough day.

Compounding this is the fact that Carolina is so deeply stocked with talent. Despite losing its entire starting midfield, the Heels have excellent replacements in the ranks that are already looking good. Cole Herbert (#1) is a former 5-star middie, who is in a starting role this year. Henry (#2) and Harrison Schertzinger (#5), twin Ohioans who are finally getting extended time, have contributed heavily in North Carolina's opening wins.

Finally for newcomers, there's Dewey Egan (#21), a Californian out of storied Torrey Pines, who lit up Colgate for a pair of goals and an assist in his first collegiate game. Egan is a load at 6'4" and 225 pounds. Just like Gray, Ohio State has no facsimile for Egan to practice against every day.

And let's not forget, Jacob Kelly (#9) is still filling up the net as an attackman for North Carolina, tallying 5 goals in 2 games. The Tar Heels roll deep on offense, and it will be imperative to not allow UNC to build an insurmountable lead during another sluggish opening quarter.

Defense

This may be the most blatantly in flux the Carolina defense has ever been when Ohio State has played them in the regular season. The Heels have three brand new starters down low, as Paul Barton (#24), Maxwell Cooney (#32), and Blake Gable (#90) trotted out against Colgate. None of the three started down low last year, and Barton is the UNC version of Bobby Van Buren. Barton is a 5-star freshman cutting his teeth in college.

This defense starts in the clearing game, really. The Carolina ride relies on heavy pressure from the attackmen, middies, and a 10-man setup that flummoxes teams into turnovers. That's the heart of this team's identity, and if Ohio State can beat the ride, they will be in good position to be successful.

Against Richmond, Carolina allowed 38% shooting, but limited the Spiders to just 24 shots ok the day. Colgate shot 27%, but was overwhelmed by a 15-shot margin in favor of Carolina.

Beating the ride is priority number 1 for Ohio State. After that, it's going to be a question of whether the offense can generate enough shots to keep up with the tidal wave that can come from Carolina's juggernaut. Composure is going to need to win the day.

Goalie

It will be a reunion of sorts for the two keepers, as Caton Johnson will be facing off against the man who took his job Saturday. Collin Krieg (#39) came in as a highly touted freshman, and forced Joe Breschi to make him the starter over an all-ACC performer.

Johnson will have the opportunity to right the ship a little, after a mediocre showing against Cleveland State. It's going to be important for Johnson to have a great start, because there is no way Ohio State can win if they allow 7 goals in the first quarter like Colgate did.

Special Teams

Ohio State has been lights out on special teams in 2022, which is weird to type. For literally years, the Buckeyes have allowed many Man Down goals and failed to score on Man Up. This year, both phases have been impeccable. No one has scored with an extra man against Ohio State, and the Buckeyes are converting an astounding 75% of the time on Man Up (6 goals in 8 opportunities).

Carolina had failed to score a Man Up goal, though that's because they've only had one opportunity in two games. Opponents have only scored once in four opportunities, so the Tar Heels are no slouches either.

Even if they regress somewhat, a 50% day for the Buckeye Man Up would be outstanding. This is a phase where the Buckeyes can really take advantage, should the opportunity arise.

Faceoffs

Ohio State is blatantly absurd at winning faceoffs. Currently the Buckeyes sit at nearly 88%. Granted, Detroit Mercy and Cleveland State aren't dominant faceoff teams, but this is Ierlan-level dominance by Justin Inacio. This is really good, because Carolina is weakest at the faceoff X.

Chase Mullins (#14) is the primary faceoff option for North Carolina now, but he is coming off his first game as a freshman with a .563 winning percentage.

The step up from Colgate to Ohio State is outrageous in faceoff terms. Making it worse for the Heels is the fact that Trent DiCicco is probably the best wing in the country right now on faceoffs. This could be a massive advantage for Ohio State all day, and will be instrumental if the Buckeyes want to win.

I have gone back and forth on this game all week. There are opportunities there for the Buckeyes to take advantage of Carolina weaknesses. But at the same time, Ohio State is highly vulnerable early in games again this year.

And the Buckeyes struggle turning the ball over against inferior opponents. And really, this game turns on the play of Chris Gray. I think it's decently close. But not a win.

Final prediction: North Carolina 15, Ohio State 13.

Hope I am wrong. But don't think so.

Go Bucks!

Game is at 3 EST, on ACC Network.