Shades of 2017 are visible everywhere. The Ohio State Buckeyes are 4-0, have beaten some really good teams so far, and appear poised to make a deep run this season. It's just barely March, however, and we have a whole lot of lacrosse to play. This week, the Buckeyes travel to Cornell.
Cornell is a team that is very hard to get a read on this season. Their most talented player on the roster has been out of the lineup most of the season. Michael Long (#1) helped beat the Buckeyes the last time these two teams met in a game that was decided by a single score. He hasn't gotten meaningful time at all in 2022.
As a result, the Big Red have been struggling to score recently, despite their high goal totals in wins against Hobart and Albany. Cornell went scoreless in the first quarter against Hobart, and was trailing 5-4 at the half on Tuesday. Only a career day from Billy Coyle (#11) kept Cornell from losing for the first time this year. This is a team that is very much in flux.
Offense
Obviously, if Long is healthy, he will be a major problem for Ohio State's defense. I see no indication that he IS healthy, however. If that's the case, the task got a lot easier. CJ Kirst (#15), the youngest of the Kirsts, has been Cornell's best offensive threat this season. Kirst has 6 goals and 4 assists on the year, and has been instrumental in the team's 3-0 start.
Midfielder Hugh Kelleher (#27) and 5th year John Piatelli (#41) are other names to watch in the offensive end. Kelleher is a massive first-year player, standing 6'3" and weighing 220 pounds. He will definitely present some matchup problems all game long.
As a team, Cornell is in the upper tier of college lacrosse for offense, though that could be due in large part to the level of defensive competition they have faced. It also takes the Big Red a LONG time to get going. That's good for Ohio State.
Defense
The Big Red are decently stout defensively, in large part because they play so aggressively. Cornell will challenge ballcarriers out to dangerous levels at times, until you prove you can beat them. Ohio State will have an interesting challenge, because they like to initiate from behind, and Cornell is going to be in the hip pocket of Jack Myers all game long.
Cornell will roll out Dom Doria (#19), Ian Jacobs (# 32), and Gavin Adler (#77) down low. Doria is a mountain, while Adler barely hits 5'8". There will be some interesting matchups there, because Colby Smith is a load, and Myers is 6'4". Aggressive slides could play into the Buckeyes favor, as they have really improved ball movement. I like Ohio State's matchups here.
Goalie
Chayse Ierlan (#22) is out for another run with Cornell, and has been solid, sporting a .576 save percentage. His last game against Hobart was his worst this year, allowing 12 goals and saving just 46% of shots. Caton Johnson is in a good spot here, and the goalies should come out about even on the day.
Faceoff
Ohio State is the best faceoff team in the country. That has been the key to success for the Buckeyes every season for years. Cornell is going to ride Angelo Petrakis (#28), who is winning 52% of his draws this year. Between Inacio and Blanchard, the Buckeyes should hit at least 60% on the day, almost certainly more. That will be a big factor early in the game.
Special Teams
Through three games, Cornell is just bad on Man Up and Man Down. The Big Red converts a third of their chances on Man Up, and is allowing opponents to convert 60% of their opportunities. Ohio State is much better at both ends of the spectrum, and this is another really good opportunity for Ohio State to put this game away.
From a team perspective, Ohio State should be a clear winner in this matchup. The Buckeyes are coming off of big wins against really tough opponents, have played one of the best coached defenses in the country, and scoring in bunches. If Ohio State hits 5 or 6 goals early, Cornell is going to be in trouble. If Ohio State keeps turning the ball over in bunches, then this could be a messy game all around. Still, I think that the Buckeyes are better all around, and come away with a W.
Final prediction: Buckeyes 15, Cornell 11.
Go Bucks!