This is it. Without much hyperbole, this game will absolutely determine the course of the season. If Ohio State loses to Penn State, Johns Hopkins, or TTUN, this season is over except for the crying.
The Maryland game is a foregone conclusion, and it won't matter in the end. Unless a miracle were to happen. Even a Big Ten tournament run doesn't help Ohio State unless it beats Rutgers or Maryland. All that said, tomorrow Penn State comes to Columbus. One game at a time.
Offense
Penn State is really banged up. They lost Jack Traynor (#33) for several games due to injury. He is still the Nittany Lions' leading scorer, despite playing just over half of Penn State's 9 games this year. Penn State side has hopes Traynor can suit up tomorrow, which would definitely not be in Ohio State's favor.
Without Traynor, Penn State relies heavily on freshman Will Peden (#29), easily the best offensive freshman in the Big Ten this year. Peden facilitates more than he scores, putting up 14 assists to go with 8 goals. If Traynor can't go, Peden is probably going to draw Bobby Van Buren.
Penn State is very balanced offensively from the midfield, with Dan Reaume (#26), Jack Kelly (#25), and Mark Sickler (#32) all contributing double digit goal totals. If there's an area where Ohio State will struggle, it's with SSDMs on the Penn State O mids. Penn State will be hunting cheap goals from up top when Peden dodges low.
Defense
Penn State also sports one of the better defensive freshman in the conference, as Kevin Parnham (#55) has played in every game for the Nittany Lions this year. Jack Posey (#43) and Brayden Peck (#44) will most likely start down low with Parnham on defense.
Penn State as a unit is porous. Teams have scored fewer than 10 goals just once against the Nittany Lions, when Penn State inexplicably beat Yale. Otherwise, even Bucknell managed to get to 12 on them. This should be a nice matchup for a Buckeye attack unit that has been wildly inconsistent all year.
Goalie
Penn State starts Aleric Fyock (#18) in net, who is the older brother of Buckeye 2023 commit Caleb Fyock. Aleric has been pretty sensational as a goalie this year. Even allowing nearly 14 goals per game, his save percentage is .510. That's an incredible statistic. The Penn State issues could be much worse without his capable presence between the pipes.
Ohio State remains a complete garbage fire in net. I don't understand how it's 5 years since 2017 and the Buckeyes still can't find a competent goalie. Penn State is decidedly better here.
Faceoffs
Penn State is bad at facing off. Really bad. The graduation of Arceri crippled the Penn State offense the same way Inacio's struggles have this season. At just 43% for the year, any other time the Buckeyes would be licking their chops at this matchup. This year, it could be an old man slapfight. I don't know if anyone has an advantage here. And it means chaos. Lots of chaos.
Special Teams
Ohio State remains one of the best teams in the country in both phases of special teams. The Man Up unit is still the best in the country. Man Down is right there. Penn State is middle of the road in both. Buckeyes have an advantage here, even if they've regressed a little as of late (1-5 against Rutgers).
Penn State is the Achilles' heel of this coaching staff. It's been nearly a decade since the Buckeyes beat Penn State. Last year the team got to lose twice. For whatever reason, Tambroni just owns Myers. This year the same pieces aren't there. If Traynor doesn't go, this Ohio State team should be okay. If he does, I don't know how they win.
Final prediction (No Traynor): Buckeyes 14, Penn State 13 (OT).
Final prediction (Traynor plays): Penn State 16, Ohio State 14.
Go Bucks!
