Welcome to my heel turn. I'm back after a crazy seven day stretch of road tripping and coaching. Not what I expected on my last recap post, but never let it be said that I won't take criticism. Freaking out gets us nowhere. Leaving the past in the past, we're going to move on.
Up this week we have a visit from 5-6 (1-1) Johns Hopkins University. Known as the Blue Jays, Hopkins is the USC of lacrosse. The team was exceptional in the mid-2000s, still has serious name recognition, but has fallen off hard due to crap defensive coaching and lots of recruiting misses.
Second-year coach Peter Milliman has seen his squad struggle mightily this year. The Jays own wins over Jacksonville and Loyola this season, but have otherwise struggled against good teams. A victory over the Maize and Blue was offset by a smothering loss to the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers. Game three of their Big Ten season is shaping up to be make or break.
Ohio State enters this contest with some momentum off the crushing victory over Penn State at home. The Buckeyes saved their season for one more week with the win, but put everything on the line again this week. Bracketologists currently have the Buckeyes in, due in large part to the moribund state of the ACC. A loss here puts the Buckeyes firmly out of the national tournament.
How can Johns Hopkins beat the Buckeyes? Not sure, but it would have to start with a stellar defensive effort. Offense first, though.
Offense
Johns Hopkins is bad offensively. They have 4- and 5-star players all over the field, including former #1 recruit Joey Epstein (#32). And yet the Jays sport a paltry .273 shooting percentage. Championship level is above .300. Complicating things is Epstein's injury against TTUN, with sidelined him early and kept him out of last week's tilt with Rutgers.
I cannot find any indication on whether Epstein can go, but if he doesn't, the talent pool is shallow. Hopkins has recruited highly touted players for decades, but the past 8 years or so have not been kind. Many big names didn't pan out, and aside from attackman Garrett Degnon (#40), there's no one on the entire roster with more than 20 goals.
Defensively, Ohio State matches up well with the Blue Jays. Bobby Van Buren (#44) is an eraser, even though he is a freshman. The best lineup for the Buckeyes this year has had Tyler Gallagher (#42) and Jacob Snyder (#52) join Van Buren. Dodging the ball will be tricky for Johns Hopkins, as Degnon is their biggest physical specimen, but also their best off-ball scorer.
A couple midfielders, Jacob Angelus (#23) and Brendan Grimes (#9) are threatening, but not overwhelming. Grimes has been hurt thos season, but returned for Big Ten play. He is massive physically, but hasn't produced like the top 10 player he was in the class of 2020.
Midfielder Connor DeSimone (#3) will try to stir the drink and get the other Hopkins shooters involved. He is dangerous, but the firepower just isn't there to make Hopkins truly threatening on offense.
Defense
On the flip side of the field, Johns Hopkins is in as much flux as Ohio State has been. The difference is that Johns Hopkins doesn't have the same talent level. Scott Smith (#18) has played most of the year, but has barely started half the games. Owen McManus (#31), on the other hand, has been a steady force in the back, starting every game, scooping 14 groundballs, and causing 10 turnovers. Not exceptional, but steady.
Finally, Johns Hopkins will roll out Beaudan Szuluk (#44), who has started alongside McManus all year. Szuluk has been the most productive defender for Johns Hopkins, with 20 groundballs and 13 caused turnovers. That is a pretty hefty load for a close defender.
Johns Hopkins hasn't been known for lockdown defense in close to a decade, and this year has been no different. The Jays are allowing opponents to score on 28% of their shots, and allow teams to shoot 3.1 more shots per game. Not exactly a recipe for success.
Ohio State's attack is pretty talented, more seasoned, and is adept at attacking from behind. With Jack Myers (#2) running the show, the Buckeye shooters should have a field day against Johns Hopkins. If the Blue Jays can't lock him up, they will get shelled.
Goalie
The starting keeper for Johns Hopkins is a familiar face. Josh Kirson (#8) has played in every game for Johns Hopkins, two years after transferring from Ohio State. Kirson left after a lot of up and down play, looking like a brick wall one week, then a sieve the next. Not much has changed for the Buckeyes in that regard.
Kirson is allowing 12.25 goals per game, and sports a not good .488 save percentage. A week after stopping Penn State pretty much cold, Skylar Wahlund should have the upper hand in this duel. Of course, should does a LOT of work in that sentence.
Faceoffs
I don't know what to say. The Buckeyes have turned pudding soft at the faceoff dot since game four, and Johns Hopkins is below 50% on the year. No one is exceptional, Justin Inacio is just borderline good at this point, and pretty much anyone could come out ahead at this point. I have a better chance at predicting the lotto numbers.
Special Teams
Johns Hopkins converts 40% of their Man Up chances. Grimes and Degnon have cannons, making them dangerous. Undermining this is the Jays' allowing opponents to convert 40% of their chances. Any advantage on offense is completely lost due to the defense's poor performance.
Ohio State maintains its place at the top of the Man Up charts, while continuing to be very good at Man Down. This is still a place Ohio State should have an advantage in over each opponent. There should be 2 goals at least from this unit.
Not every game has make-or-break implications. But this one does. For those in the back, if the Buckeyes lose, the season is done. The staff is done. The roster will see major changes. It will end an era. You can argue about if it's for the better or not. But that'll be the end result.
Nick Myers is in the final year of his deal. There has been no announcement of an extension. Ohio State's had one good win (Harvard) and some decent wins (UNC, Notre Dame) this year. Aside from the 2017 season, however, the best win for Ohio State was a miracle W over Maryland at College Park in 2018.
Aside from that, the Buckeyes have only a couple of wins over Notre Dame to lean on. It's also been almost 5 years since Ohio State made the national tournament. So if you like stakes, now is a good time to follow along. Because there's a LOT riding on this game, and the season finale against TTUN.
Even with the pressure, I don't see how Hopkins pulls the upset. Epstein or no Epstein, this Jays team is toothless.
Final prediction: Ohio State 16, Johns Hopkins 12.
Go Bucks!
If you didn't catch it above, here's the update on how I'm going to be with lacrosse content:
Welcome to my heel turn. I'm back after a crazy seven day stretch of road tripping and coaching. Not what I expected on my last recap post, but never let it be said that I won't take criticism. Freaking out gets us nowhere. Leaving the past in the past, we're going to move on.
Up this week we have a visit from 5-6 (1-1) Johns Hopkins University. Known as the Blue Jays, Hopkins is the USC of lacrosse. The team was exceptional in the mid-2000s, still has serious name recognition, but has fallen off hard due to crap defensive coaching and lots of recruiting misses.
Second-year coach Peter Milliman has seen his squad struggle mightily this year. The Jays own wins over Jacksonville and Loyola this season, but have otherwise struggled against good teams. A victory over the Maize and Blue was offset by a smothering loss to the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers. Game three of their Big Ten season is shaping up to be make or break.
Ohio State enters this contest with some momentum off the crushing victory over Penn State at home. The Buckeyes saved their season for one more week with the win, but put everything on the line again this week. Bracketologists currently have the Buckeyes in, due in large part to the moribund state of the ACC. A loss here puts the Buckeyes firmly out of the national tournament.
How can Johns Hopkins beat the Buckeyes? Not sure, but it would have to start with a stellar defensive effort. Offense first, though.
Offense
Johns Hopkins is bad offensively. They have 4- and 5-star players all over the field, including former #1 recruit Joey Epstein (#32). And yet the Jays sport a paltry .273 shooting percentage. Championship level is above .300. Complicating things is Epstein's injury against TTUN, with sidelined him early and kept him out of last week's tilt with Rutgers.
I cannot find any indication on whether Epstein can go, but if he doesn't, the talent pool is shallow. Hopkins has recruited highly touted players for decades, but the past 8 years or so have not been kind. Many big names didn't pan out, and aside from attackman Garrett Degnon (#40), there's no one on the entire roster with more than 20 goals.
Defensively, Ohio State matches up well with the Blue Jays. Bobby Van Buren (#44) is an eraser, even though he is a freshman. The best lineup for the Buckeyes this year has had Tyler Gallagher (#42) and Jacob Snyder (#52) join Van Buren. Dodging the ball will be tricky for Johns Hopkins, as Degnon is their biggest physical specimen, but also their best off-ball scorer.
A couple midfielders, Jacob Angelus (#23) and Brendan Grimes (#9) are threatening, but not overwhelming. Grimes has been hurt thos season, but returned for Big Ten play. He is massive physically, but hasn't produced like the top 10 player he was in the class of 2020.
Midfielder Connor DeSimone (#3) will try to stir the drink and get the other Hopkins shooters involved. He is dangerous, but the firepower just isn't there to make Hopkins truly threatening on offense.
Defense
On the flip side of the field, Johns Hopkins is in as much flux as Ohio State has been. The difference is that Johns Hopkins doesn't have the same talent level. Scott Smith (#18) has played most of the year, but has barely started half the games. Owen McManus (#31), on the other hand, has been a steady force in the back, starting every game, scooping 14 groundballs, and causing 10 turnovers. Not exceptional, but steady.
Finally, Johns Hopkins will roll out Beaudan Szuluk (#44), who has started alongside McManus all year. Szuluk has been the most productive defender for Johns Hopkins, with 20 groundballs and 13 caused turnovers. That is a pretty hefty load for a close defender.
Johns Hopkins hasn't been known for lockdown defense in close to a decade, and this year has been no different. The Jays are allowing opponents to score on 28% of their shots, and allow teams to shoot 3.1 more shots per game. Not exactly a recipe for success.
Ohio State's attack is pretty talented, more seasoned, and is adept at attacking from behind. With Jack Myers (#2) running the show, the Buckeye shooters should have a field day against Johns Hopkins. If the Blue Jays can't lock him up, they will get shelled.
Goalie
The starting keeper for Johns Hopkins is a familiar face. Josh Kirson (#8) has played in every game for Johns Hopkins, two years after transferring from Ohio State. Kirson left after a lot of up and down play, looking like a brick wall one week, then a sieve the next. Not much has changed for the Buckeyes in that regard.
Kirson is allowing 12.25 goals per game, and sports a not good .488 save percentage. A week after stopping Penn State pretty much cold, Skylar Wahlund should have the upper hand in this duel. Of course, should does a LOT of work in that sentence.
Faceoffs
I don't know what to say. The Buckeyes have turned pudding soft at the faceoff dot since game four, and Johns Hopkins is below 50% on the year. No one is exceptional, Justin Inacio is just borderline good at this point, and pretty much anyone could come out ahead at this point. I have a better chance at predicting the lotto numbers.
Special Teams
Johns Hopkins converts 40% of their Man Up chances. Grimes and Degnon have cannons, making them dangerous. Undermining this is the Jays' allowing opponents to convert 40% of their chances. Any advantage on offense is completely lost due to the defense's poor performance.
Ohio State maintains its place at the top of the Man Up charts, while continuing to be very good at Man Down. This is still a place Ohio State should have an advantage in over each opponent. There should be 2 goals at least from this unit.
Not every game has make-or-break implications. But this one does. For those in the back, if the Buckeyes lose, the season is done. The staff is most likely done. The roster will see major changes. It will end an era. You can argue about if it's for the better or not. But that'll be the end result.
Nick Myers is in the final year of his deal. There has been no announcement of an extension. Ohio State's had one good win (Harvard) and some decent wins (UNC, Notre Dame) this year. Aside from the 2017 season, however, the best win in the past 5 seasons for Ohio State was a miracle W over Maryland at College Park in 2018.
Aside from that, the Buckeyes have only a couple of wins over Notre Dame to lean on. It's also been almost 5 years since Ohio State made the national tournament. So if you like stakes, now is a good time to follow along. Because there's a LOT riding on this game, and the season finale against TTUN.
Even with the pressure, I don't see how Hopkins pulls the upset. Epstein or no Epstein, this Jays team is toothless.
Final prediction: Ohio State 16, Johns Hopkins 12.
Go Bucks!
If you didn't catch it above, here's how I'm doing:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PVDH3MX4MYI
And also:
