In every conceivable way, it all comes down to this. One game. Under the lights. Everything on the line. It doesn't get any bigger than this moment for Ohio State lacrosse. Because That Team Up North stands between everything this team has worked for all season and ruin. And let me tell you, abject misery awaits if this group can't finish.
A loss to the Wolverines would seal another season without a national tournament appearance for Ohio State. And with the talent on hand, that's completely unacceptable. It would be the third time in three seasons that the Maize and Blue ruined a Buckeye postseason. And as an amateur, online AD, I don't know how you recover from that.
Especially since all the pieces are there for the Buckeyes to actually break through. The Wolverines,however, are dangerous in all the wrong places for this Buckeye team. It could very well spell trouble. If not this week, then next week. Because a win Sunday cements a repeat matchup on the same field, with the same teams, with the exact same stakes, six days later. What a world.
Offense
Plainly, the Wolverines are better across the board on offense. They just have better talent at all six positions. That is likely to change. But for now, when it matters, Ohio State is the underdog.
Josh Zawada (#9) anchors an incredibly formidable attack line for the Wolverines. Zawada had 38 goals and 30 assists on the year. Granted, this is in large part due to the horrible nature of his team's non-conference slate, but Zawada is a top-tier talent all on his own.
Joining Zawada in the offensive zone are Michael Boehm (#5), perhaps the worst recruiting loss of Nick Myers' tenure, and Ryan Cohen (#40). Boehm has 31 goals and 27 assists this year, while Ryan Cohen is yet another threat, pouring in 24 goals and 23 assists on the year. If Ohio State traded attack lines with the Wolverines, the Buckeyes would be a top 5 team. And it wouldn't be out of line to talk Final Four run.
It's bad enough that each of the Wolverines' attackmen are capable of hurting you if you give them an inch. The soft underbelly of the Buckeye defense is the defensive midfield, and the Maize and Blue can punish teams there just as easily.
Justin Brown (#1) got the start against Rutgers, and pretty much has come out of nowhere to become a goal machine. He put in 5 against Penn State, and had 2 goals, plus an assist, against Rutgers. Brown had 2 goals in 11 games before the past two contests. He is getting hot at just the wrong time.
Jake Bonomi (#2) has been having a rough go in Big Ten play, but has 25 goals this season. He will be a threat all evening against Ohio State's porous midfield defense. Aidan Mulholland (#51) is a highly-touted freshman who has fallen off as the competition increased in quality, but remains a very talented threat.
Top to bottom, this midfield group is not nearly as talented as the attackmen, but it's still a smidge ahead of the Buckeyes' group overall. As initiators, these players are a ways ahead, though. And it will be a real struggle to get the entire defensive unit on the same page.
The bright spot here is that the Wolverines, especially at attack, really, really struggle to score against Power 3 (Big Ten/ACC/Ivy) opponents. The Wolverines had 47 shots against Penn State, but only 8 goals. That's, obviously, really bad. Individually, Ohio State matches up really well against their rivals.
The challenge for the Buckeyes is that effort and off-ball play sink them continuously. Against Maryland, goal #2 for the Terps was the direct result of SSDM casually jogging to the defensive zone during a transition situation. Malever literally had all day to get noticed, catch the ball, crow hop twice and slam a goal past Wahlund with under a minute elapsed in the first quarter. It's mind-bogglingly lazy, at best. Or cripplingly bad lacrosse IQ at worst.
If these Wolverine attackmen, and especially middies, get free reign or missed in the shuffle, it's going to be a rough, rough day for Ohio State.
Defense
As a team, despite Kevin Conry being a former defensive coordinator for the Terps, the Wolverines have struggled mightily to stop opponents from scoring. Especially teams in the Power 3. Only Penn State has been held below 10 goals this year, and that was still an OT loss for the Maize and Blue.
This is delightful, as Jack Myers excels in these sorts of matchups. Maryland shut down Myers by glueing Brett Makar to him when Ohio State was on offense, then shifting a pole onto Ari Allen. Once the latter adjustment was made, the game was essentially over, as the Buckeyes suffocated on O.
In this game, the Wolverines are significantly less talented at defense than Maryland. Everyone is, but it's a significant fact because Jack Myers now has space and opportunity to operate. Jack Whitney (#14), Ryan Schriber (#18) and Andrew Darby (#19) will most likely start down low for the Wolverines.
There's a word of caution, however. Against Rutgers, the Maize and Blue had THREE pole goals in transition. For a team like Ohio State, who both struggles in transition and is not as coordinated as Rutgers, that's a problem. Three pole goals would be a killer for this team. Something to watch as Sunday draws near.
Goalie
Skylar Wahlund, in the past three games, has really taken some steps forward in his goalie career. I never imagined he would have 19 saves in 3 games, let alone 1. Wahlund is coming in red hot to this game, which is a real boon to the Buckeyes.
His counterpart, Shane Carr (#41), is having an impressive season all around. Carr has made 159 saves this season, has a save percentage of .560, and generally has been a brick wall for the Wolverines. Carr made 18 saves during the game against Rutgers, and hasn't had fewer than 11 saves since the Marquette game. This could be a problem.
Faceoffs
Once more, I have absolutely no idea how to handle this section. The Buckeye group has regressed to fair, while the Wolverines are in the schizophrenic section. Nick Rowlett (#37) and Justin Wietfeldt (#38) evenly split duties against Rutgers, going 21-30 in that loss.
If this happens, Ohio State could be in serious trouble. The Buckeyes are not built to win after losing the faceoff battle. In fact, that's supposed to be one of biggest areas of strength. Which, predictably, has led to many of the issues seen this season.
Realistically, anything could happen, and I hate everything.
Special Teams
The Wolverines, unsurprisingly, have a really good Man Up unit. They're converting 52% of their opportunities on the year, which is outstanding. With their shooters, that makes sense. On Man Down, the Maize and Blue allow opponents to convert 33% of the time. That's about average.
Ohio State remains one of the most dominant teams in the country in both phases. The Man Up unit has been quiet lately because no one is calling penalties on Buckeye opponents, but the unit still sits above 60%. And the Man Down unit is killing it at just 24%. Here, the Buckeyes are noticeably better. But will it matter?
This is a really hard game to prognosticate. There are so many variables that are impossible to adequately analyze based on what we have seen from both teams.
Ohio State's defensive midfield is bad off-ball. There's just no way to hide that fact. This includes LSMs. The opening three goals of the 4th quarter were due to LSMs just sitting in the wash, waiting for the ballcarrier to throw the ball.
The SSDMs, meanwhile, are just bad, period. Poor effort, inexperience, and underwhelming lateral movement plague every single player there to some degree. The inexperience part comes with time, but the other two are difficult to overcome.
Against TTUN, this could be a huge problem. Justin Brown has magically turned into a force, now that games don't matter and the Wolverines are out of the national postseason. The attackmen are downright scary good. And the Wolverine ride caused havoc all last year.
On the positive, Ohio State is up against it. They know that a win here is paramount. This IS the season. And, if they win, that sets up another matchup the next weekend. In Columbus. Plus, the Buckeye offense is actually not bad against average to marginal defensive teams, which the Wolverines absolutely are.
A loss here, or next week in the Big Ten Tournament, has absolutely massive implications. At this point, Coach Myers is on the last year of his deal, with an extension up in the air still. To this point, he only has a miracle win over #1 Maryland in 2018 to point to as proof positive of his ability to command the Buckeyes to respectability.
There have been zero conference championships during his tenure in the Big Ten. No Big Ten championship appearances since 2017. The team has done extremely well academically, and off the field. There are a lot of service photo ops that the social media feeds put up. Is that enough to get 5 more years? I don't know.
The staff is actively recruiting like they will return, but there was an interview from Myers on the Inside Lacrosse feed that was very oddly phrased in parts. Does that mean anything? Damned if I know. I think it's paramount to end the season on a good note, however, and let the chips fall where they fall. For staff, players, and fans alike.
In the end, I think the Buckeyes are frustrated, hungry for some success, and ready to pummel their rivals. No D, all O, gimme some goals.
Final Prediction: Buckeyes 18, Wolverines 14.
Rematch in Columbus on April 30.
Go Bucks!
