The Big One. Game of the Century. David vs. Goliath. Just some of the superlatives you could lay on the next game for Ohio State, as the Buckeyes tango with the bluest of blue-bloods. Virginia is the measuring stick for the past 5 years, and every other team has come up well short.
The Cavaliers were repeat (with a COVID year break) champions in 2021 after winning in 2019. The Cavs have been to the title game 11 times, won 7 NCAA championships, gone to the Final Four 24 times in the NCAA era, and have made 41 NCAA tournaments.
Lately, Virginia had outrecruited everyone, change the way the game is played, spawned dozens of copycats (including me), and generally is pretty close to an Alabama level of dominance in college lacrosse. This game will really set the tone for the Buckeyes' season. It's definitely not earth-shattering to lose. But a poor showing would not bode well for the future.
Just about everyone on Virginia's roster is a household name. At attack, Connor Shellenberger (#1) is absolutely scorching college lacrosse. Shellenberger is probably the most threatening offensive player in the game, having already scored 16 points in just 2 games. He shoots over 50% (6/11), absolutely mauled Harvard with 7 assists, and is essentially a cheat code.
Joining him low are Xander Dickson (#10) and Payton Cormier (#24), both absolute studs who can fill up the net on their own. Cormier is a fickle player to defend, as he has any number of tricks up his sleeve to get a shot off. This is a talented, experienced, impressive line to deal with on each possession. Ohio State will have its hands full.
Things get worse for the Buckeyes in midfield. Certified baller Thomas McConvey (#12) joined Virginia after a special career for Vermont. With 5 goals and 4 assists through 2 games, McConvey is tied for 3rd in points on UVA's deep squad. Added to that mix is Hopkins transfer Evan Zinn (#0), 5th-year Jeff Conner (#4), and the absolute unit that is Ricky Miezan (#50). Miezan is maybe the most physically imposing player in the country, even if a few years off haven't given him quite the set of skills that he would otherwise have honed.
This offense is impressive, if perhaps a little untested. Yes, 42 goals in 2 games is an astounding output. These games came against TTUN and a rebuilding Harvard squad with a freshman goalkeeper. Harvard will improve, but the Wolverines have struggled om defense for a long time. There's plenty to be worried about, but we will see how things shake out against the law firm of Van Buren, Snyder & Hudgins.
Defensively, Virginia has not been nearly as impressive. The Cavs also start a true freshman in goal, Matt Nunes (#41), who is allowing just under 14 goals per game. That's matched up with a save percentage of .500, however, so that needs to be put in context.
Down low, the Cavs start Cade Saustad (#11), Quentin Matsui (#22), and Cole Kastner (#39). Though more than adequate, this hasn't been as stout a unit in early 2023 as past versions have been. Virginia allows 17 goals per game, a shooting percentage of .395, and only outshoots opponents by 3 shots per game.
There's opportunity against this defense, amd this newly minted college goalkeeper. To capitalize, however, you have to be sure to weather the storm coming from the Cavs' offense. And that's a tall order, as Harvard found out.
The other big piece is the faceoff game. Petey LaSalla (#23) currently wins almost 60% of his faceoffs. That, in turn, provides more opportunities to the Virginia offense, leading to lots of goals for the Cavs. As awe have discussed. LaSalla has already tallied 4 goals on the season, meaning Ohio State will have to shut him down in transition to have a chance.
On special teams, Virginia has problems. Currently, they have scored on both opportunities. But the Cavs have committed 10 penalties in 2 games. And their opponents scored 5 goals. That's a red flag. Ohio State HAS to come alive here to have a realistic chance. Results have been middling through 3 games.
On the whole, this game will be a fascinating matchup between two top-10 opponents. Virginia's offense is superior by far to Ohio State's. That's not intended to be a knock, they just have much more talent there. The defense of Virginia, in my opinion, is decidedly less able than Ohio State's. The question becomes can Ohio State's offense shake off the UNC game and return to its early season ways?
That, and faceoffs, will be key. Jack Myers is a step behind Connor Shellenberger, but only a small one. Skylar Wahlund needs to hit 50%, as does Drew Blanchard, or this will be a blowout. Blanchard struggled a little against UNC, but the defense and Wahlund bailed him out.
IF the offense gets to early season form, and IF Blanchard can keep faceoffs close, then this could easily break the Buckeyes' way. We just need to see how the UVA O matches up with the Buckeye D. And I think the team has enough in them. It's gonna be close, with lots of runs, but I think Ohio State can eke it out.
Final prediction: Ohio State 15, UVA 14.
Make me a visionary, Buckeyes.
Let's go.
Go Bucks!
