Another week, another top 5 opponent on the docket in the form of Notre Dame. And, unfortunately for Ohio State, yet another run in with what looks to be an elite defense. This is a tougher hill to climb even than Cornell. And it all starts on offense for the Irish.
Pat (#51) and Chris (#50) Kavanagh are both starters on attack for Notre Dame, are both averaging 5 points a game, and both ride relentlessly. For an Ohio State defense that has been cut to shreds the past two games, this is a recipe for disaster. Chris scores the goals, while Pat dishes out the assists. Ohio State has done decently well against one superstar, but two is likely a bridge too far.
Added to that is the depth around the Kavanaghs. Notre Dame has 5 players not surnamed Kavanagh with at least 5 goals through 4 games. Ohio State only has 4 total players with at least 5 goals, with an extra game played. Notre Dame has also played two top 10 teams in the past two games. The defense has to come prepared for Ohio State to have a shot.
Defensively, Notre Dame has suffocated opposing offenses. The Irish hold teams below 25% shooting, which is an impressive feat, and have a healthy goals per game differential of +7.25. That is a ludicrous stat. Notre Dame also averages just under 11 caused turnovers per game. Given Ohio State's proclivity to turnovers already, this isn't an ideal matchup.
The Irish will likely start Yale transfer Chris Fake (#7), Chris Conlin (#20), and Marco Napolitano (#30) down low. Ohio State will need Jack Myers to get himself right, or it will be a LONG day for the Buckeye offense.
Added to that is U21 World Champion goalkeeper Liam Entenmann (#44). Entenmann is an absolute wall, who is averaging 8.74 goals against, and has a save percentage of .534. That's also ludicrous, given Notre Dame's schedule, and really speaks to their recruiting prowess. To reach 10 goals would be a really good day for Ohio State.
At the faceoff dot, Notre Dame is surprisingly pretty bad. Most of the top powers seem to be a little down on faceoffs, while Ohio State is one of the better teams. The Irish are winning just 45.5% of draws, while Ohio State is over 58%. If the Buckeyes want to win, they're going to need to dominate at the faceoff.
On special teams, Notre Dame holds a decisive advantage. The Irish score 53% of the time on Man Up, and allow opponents to score just 30% of the time. Ohio State is right at 38% on both sides of the coin. That's pretty average on both counts. If this turns into a game of penalties, Notre Dame has an advantage.
No one has had more talent than Notre Dame the last few years, outside of Virginia, and the Irish have still struggled. The Buckeyes cap the roster at 48, and Notre Dame was at 66 last year, 56 this year. But Notre Dame has also been more attractive as a transfer destination, while getting better top end talent.
The addition of Chris Fake was an exceptional coup, and the maturation of the Kavanaghs has really taken off. This is going to be a rough game for Ohio State, on the road. Why, you may ask?
The Buckeyes are still trying to shake off years of bad offensive recruiting in the midfield. Their top 100 guys have not panned out due to lack of development, transfer, or quitting lacrosse. Injuries haven't helped (get well soon Ari), but there was just too much speculation in recruiting middies. And this year's transfers are struggling against high end talent.
Unless the offense starts hitting shots at a better than average clip, this team is going to end up in the 10-15 range, and likely miss the national tournament again. As it is, this game would be a giant feather in the cap. But I think it is likely to be a repeat of the last two games.
Final prediction: Notre Dame 15, Ohio State 9.
Hope I am wrong.
Go Bucks!
