If you’re looking for hope from me, this is the only game where you’ll find it for the remainder of 2024. Rutgers and Ohio State are locked in a tight race for the Big Ten men’s lacrosse basement, and it’s not looking good for the Scarlet Knights. The only thing they have going for them is that the game will take place in New Jersey.

I] have been highly critical of the staff, especially the head coach, this year. I have changed no opinions. But an objective fact for the 2024 men’s lacrosse season is that Ohio State has a tremendous goalie and, by extension, an above average defense. The failings of the defense, of which there are many, are generally covered up by the fact that Caleb Fyock is an outstanding netminder.

Rutgers doesn’t score well, just like Ohio State. Their best players are better than what the Buckeyes have, but the role players are worse. It’s helped level the playing field for the Buckeyes heading into this matchup.

Rutgers got smothered by Johns Hopkins in their last matchup, 13-8, and the Scarlet Knights aren’t looking to fare any better the rest of the way. Ross Scott (#5) makes the team go on offense, with 13 goals and 18 assists to lead the Scarlet Knights in points.

Shane Knobloch (#27) leads Rutgers in goals with 22, and is second on the team with 28 points. After these two, Colin Kurdyla (#88) is the only player Ohio State really needs to have a plan for.

Rutgers got hot for a couple years riding the Kirst family wave, but that has long since crested. The Scarlet Knights are only hitting 28% of their shots, and have only outscored opponents by 9 goals over their 9 games. It makes the 6-3 record more understandable.

Against teams with a pulse, the Scarlet Knights haven’t broken 10 goals all season. Their best win is against UMass, which is really all you need to know about the state of this program. It’s a worse facsimile of Ohio State, except Rutgers isn’t paying their coach $300k to get these results.

Defensively, Rutgers is quite pedestrian. They’ve allowed at least 13 goals in each loss. Princeton, probably the weakest team the Scarlet Knights have succumbed to, scored 14. I’m not saying we’ll see an offensive explosion from Ohio State. But there’s likely to be opportunities there that have not existed elsewhere.

Opponents are sporting a healthy .281 shooting percentage in games against Rutgers, which is good on the whole. The Scarlet Knights will likely put Ben McKelvy (#19), Tommy Mendyke (#28), and Harris Hubbard (#41) down low to start the game. It won’t exactly be a murderer’s row of defenders, but Ohio State doesn’t have even an average offense.

In goal, Rutgers starts Cardin Stoller (#92), who was a teammate of several Buckeyes at Boys’ Latin School in Maryland. Stoller is a good goalie, full stop. He has a save percentage of .545, and will keep Rutgers in games as much as possible. Stoller’s downfall is that his supporting cast just isn’t that good.

At faceoff, Rutgers relies heavily on Cole Brams (#24), who is winning 56% of his faceoffs this season. Faceoff has been an absolute disaster for Ohio State this year, given the talent on hand.

Just appalling recruiting and coaching. The Buckeyes need to be at 55% to win this game. Anything less, and the team could be winless in the Big Ten going into the Big Ten tournament.

Special teams have actually been very good for the Scarlet Knights this year. They’re converting on 45% of their Man Up opportunities, and only allowing opponents to score on 26% of Man Down chances. That’s really, really good work by those two units. Ohio State will need to be very disciplined this Holy Saturday to get the job done. We’ll find out if they have it in them.

Realistically, the is the Buckeyes’ best chance to get a Big Ten win. The offense really, really bad. Historically bad. On the year, Ohio State is shooting .257. Only 52% of shots are on goal. That’s MAAC-level offense. Defensively, Ohio State is strong, but only because the goalie has been so good. The Buckeyes still allow opponents to shoot .285. And get over 60% of their shots on goal. Even with all of this said, however, I still think the Buckeyes are better than Rutgers. It may not be by a lot. But I think it is enough.

Final prediction: Ohio State 8, Rutgers 7 (OT).

Go Bucks!

Game is at 4:30 EDT tomorrow, on BTN+.