We have arrived. After literally years of you reading how much Ohio State needed to improve, We're now enjoying a good Ohio State lacrosse team capable of winning in just about every way. It's about time. And I’m loving it. Ohio State went into Panzer Stadium and completely shut down a Penn State squad that has looked like a Final Four candidate all year. And, if I’m being honest, that game was astonishing.
Not because Ohio State won. Oh no. It is because the Buckeyes won by 4 goals while playing, holistically, one of their worst games all year. The Buckeyes couldn’t clear the ball, did not pass very well, got very tight for long stretches, turned the ball over too much, and STILL dominated a banged up Nittany Lions squad. It just flat out didn’t matter that the Buckeyes were struggling with the Penn State pressure in transition. This team seems to improve week after week, which is an incredible change from previous squads.
Up next is a much different squad in the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers. Rutgers is one of those teams that you have absolutely no good read on, from week to week. The team is .500, with some truly embarrassing losses. On the other hand, Rutgers went up to Homewood and beat Johns Hopkins 11-8 last week.
This is one of those lowa/Purdue 2:30 football games in late October where nothing on the surface is wrong, but disaster lurks just around the corner. Ohio State is in for a tremendous slog, especially after such an emotional win on the road last week.
Rutgers comes into this contest as one of the stoutest defensive teams in the entire country. Though they’re 5-5, Rutgers has not allowed a single team to score more than 11 goals all season. The Scarlet Knights have some bad losses. But no one is slamming goals into the net like vintage Syracuse on this team. The Buckeyes will have to overcome some serious obstacles in order to eke out the win. Let’s look at the Rutgers individual units.
Attack
Rutgers averages less than 10 goals per game. That shows in their scoring record. Colin Kelly (#2) leads the attack unit in goals with 13. True freshman JJ Aiello (#0) actually has more production this season overall, with 9 goals and 9 assists. But literally all of Ohio State’s regular starters on attack have more than 13 goals this season. Ed Shean, who has been a significant rotational player this season, has 12 goals in limited time. And let’s not mention that Alex Marinier, with 31 goals, blows all of these guys out of the water. Rutgers just does not play good offense.
The attackmen are as nonthreatening as you’re going to get, overall. Aiello will be a facilitator to watch, but he’s going to draw either Bobby van Buren or Cullen Brown, both of whom are playing at an alite level. This is not a game I would expect to see Rutgers exceed 5 goals while the game’s outcome is still in doubt.
Midfield
Colin Kurdyla (#88) leads Rutgers in scoring, with 14 goals and 7 assists. He is far and away the best player in the midfield, and the primary threat Ohio State will have to deal with.
Jonny Cool will likely draw the assignment to guard Kurdyla, which I would say is going to be a good thing for the Buckeyes. The Scarlet Knights are going to have to attack Blake Eiland, Greg Langermeier, Braden Glushakow, and Dom Shaw in order to get anything going. I don’t see that being particularly successful for this Rutgers team. As an offense, the Scarlet Knights are just under 58% in SOG percentage, shoot a pathetic .239, and generally are just really, really pedestrian.
Defense
This is where things really change. Rutgers holds its opponents below their bad offense in all major statistical categories at even strength. Teams only manage to get 57% of their shots on goal, they convert shots at a .232 clip, and they’re averaging 8.40 goals per game against. No one really blows you away, like a van Buren or Brown, but this unit really knows what it is about. Long gone are the days of “NASCAR” offense. It’s a gritty, grinding defense.
The starting unit for Rutgers down low is likely to be Ben McKelvy (#19), Tommy Mendyke (#28), and Ben Stephanos (#82).
Ohio State runs out offensive players in waves, so these 3 guys are going to be tested. I think the Buckeyes can wear them down. The biggest problem is going to be the goalie.
Cardin Stoller (#92) is one of the most effective goalies in the country, statistically. Stoller is sitting north of 60% in save percentage, allows a pathetic 8.35 goals per game, and is basically as close to a brick wall as Rutgers could hope to have. Stoller’s going to challenge the Buckeye shooters, who can sometimes struggle to avoid throwing the ball directly at an opposing keeper. Stoller is excellent, even if I think Caleb Fyock is even a step above.
Faceoff
Rutgers is absolutely fantastic at faceoffs. As a team, they’re winning 58% of draws this season, despite losing 5 games out of 10.
Ohio State is getting better and better results from Jack Oldman, so I’m not particularly worried about this fact. Even a 50% day sees Ohio State win comfortably. But this will likely be the most consequential matchup on the day. If Jack Oldman doesn’t get hurt or have a Utah game, things are great for the Buckeyes.
Overall
This game really feels like a Bryant derivative from earlier in the year. Do I think that Ohio State loses? Not really. Will Ohio State blow out Rutgers? I really don’t believe that is a possibility. Rutgers just beat Johns Hopkins, so let’s not pretend this is an easy team to beat.
The difference, to me, is that Ohio State’s defense is a top 5 unit, the faceoff unit has rounded into a top 5 unit the past few weeks, and the offense is really rounding into form. Ohio State has been through the meatgrinder, especially this season, and is one horrific game away from an undefeated season.
Anything can happen in the Big Ten, but I think that the Buckeyes will be able to keep their momentum going and get to 2-0 in conference play.
Final Prediction: Ohio State 10, Rutgers 6.
Game is on B1G+ tomorrow, 1 p.m. EDT.
Go Bucks!
