My yearly analysis of this great non-rivalry game.

Opening Betting Line - Ohio State - 3.5

This implies a 60% chance that Ohio State will win and a 40% chance Penn State will win.  My only consolation if we lose yet again is that I won't have to do another analysis for 2 years since they don't play next year.

The Penn State fanbase is really engaged this year as most feel this is the best chance Penn State has to beat Ohio State since 2018.

We all know favorites don't always win so I have identified the factors I believe will determine if Penn State can pull the upset.

1.  Less Talented Team Outcoaches the More Talented Team

Now I won't insult your intelligence by ever suggesting James Franklin can outcoach Ryan Day.  There is only one coach that Franklin can outcoach and that is Lincoln Riley.  I just hope Franklin doesn't cost Penn State the game as he has done so may times in the past.  However our new OC Andy Kotelnicki has proved to be a massive upgrade over Mike Yurcich.  He has had some very innovative play calling which has resulted in a big improvement in explosive plays and the improvement in Drew Allar.  He could end up being the difference.  Note that the last time we had an OC of Kotelnicki's quality was Joe Moorhead from 2016-2018.  Penn State won by 3 in 2016 and lost by 1 point in both 2017 and 2018 to Ohio State.  At DC, I'd rate Tom Allen as a slight downgrade which isn't really a knock on him.  It was just that Manny Diaz was really good.  Other teams hav been able to move the ball on Penn State but both co-ordinators have been able to make half time adjustments to preserve our undefeated record.

2.  Less Talented Team has better QB play than the More Talented Team

I'd rate Allar to be equivalent to Will Howard.  Allar lost weight this offseason and as a consequnce his mobility has improved this year as well as his accuracy.  Allar has had two bad years against Ohio State and he has to outperform Will Howard if Penn State is to win.  Now of course you guys know all about his injury but what none of us know is whether he will acually play.  The last I heard is he is questionable.  Fortunately we have a very capable backup in Beau Pribula.  For those of you who haven't seen him play, he is a McSorely clone.  He performed very well against Wisconsin but it is unknown how he will perform against Ohio State if he is pressed into service.

3. Less Talented Team wins the turnover battle against the More Talented Team.

This of course is a crapshoot but it could determine the winner of the game.  Maybe our front 7 can take advantage of your weak offensive line and cause Will Howard to turn the ball over.  Maybe.....

4.  Less Talented Team comes through in the clutch. 

The USC game was a relevation.  It was the first time I can remember Penn State coming through with a last minute drive to win a game in a long time.  Allar connected with two 4th down passes to Julian Fleming and lead them to a late 4th quarter touchdown to get the win.  Fleming is about what he was at Ohio State.  He never could reach that 5* talent that he was supposed to be.  Yes he made those two clutch catches in the USC game but he also had a bad drop in the Wisconsin game.  Clutch plays by either team could rsult in the win.

5.  How Ohio State handles #44 Tight End Tyler Warren.

Our budding superstar.  For those of you who don't know, he was a QB, centre and tight end in high school.  Penn State has used him to catch the ball, throw the ball, play centre and catch a pass on the same play.  No doubt they will use some trickery with Warren again in this game - maybe even as a decoy.  He also rarely has drops.  Only one drop all season.

6.  Incentive

Penn State and their fans are tired of losing to Ohio State every year.  Franklin knows that for Penn State to be taken seriously as a CFB Playoff contender he has to beat Ohio State and also to get this monkey off his back of always losing big games.

Ohio State also has incentive.  They won't play in the BIG Championship game if they lose this game which is always one of your yearly goals in addition to beating the Cheaters.

I think it's likely both Ohio State and Penn State still make the College football playoff even if they lose this game as long as they win out.  If Penn State loses a second game (assuming they lose this one) it gets dicey.  They may need a second Notre Dame loss to get a spot as I'm sure all two loss SEC teams will be ranked ahead of them.  If Ohio State loses this one, I think they still make it with 2 losses.  They would have lost to two Top 5 teams plus would have beaten Indiana (whoever thought that would be a quality win???)  If Ohio State loses a 3rd game, you're out.

7. Refereeing

I hate to mention this but it's probably going to be a factor.  There have been so many stupid calls in so many games this year its unbelievable.  And there are going to likely be stupid calls in this game.  The team that overcomes the stupid calls against them instead of whining and complaining about them will likely win.

Prediction

I hope I'm wrong but I have said this many times since 2016.

I won't believe Penn State can actually beat Ohio State until they do it.

I expect a close game that will come down to the 4th quarter.

Ohio State 34

Penn State 31