Every game matters in the college basketball regular season. It matters more when a conference championship is at stake, but all teams play hard to position themselves for a second chance at redemption: the conference tournament.
By this point in the season, the Buckeyes may have expected to be running slightly ahead of where they are now. At 20-8, 9-6 in conference play, there is no chance of overtaking Wisconsin for the Big Ten regular season title. Now the focus turns towards the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.
This is a senior-laden team with several deep tournament runs under its belt. It is not intuitive for the Buckeyes to be an awful road team, but the Buckeyes are 3-7 in road and neutral games this season. That's bad news, since every Big Ten Tournament game is played at a neutral site, this year Chicago.
| Seed | Record | # of Winners |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30-10 | 7 |
| 2 | 22-10 | 6 |
| 3 | 15-14 | 2 |
| 4 | 11-16 | 0* |
| 5 | 11-17 | 0 |
| 6 | 27-15 | 1 |
| 7 | 11-17 | 0 |
| 8 | 14-16 | 0 |
| 9 | 7-17 | 0 |
| 10 | 10-16 | 0 |
| 11 | 4-17 | 0 |
| 12 | 0-3 | 0 |
After Wisconsin, the top half of the Big Ten is a logjam. Two losses separate sixth-place Ohio State from second-place Maryland, and the Buckeyes could enter the Big Ten Tournament anything from a two seed to a nine seed.
If the Buckeyes win out, they stand a fair chance at a two- or three-seed. OSU owns a tiebreaker against Maryland and no one else; to finish as a two-seed, the Buckeyes would need to win out or tie with Maryland for second place. If tied with Purdue, the Buckeyes would need a fourth-place team (like the Terrapins) they and not Indiana had beaten.
A more likely scenario for the Buckeyes if they win out is a three or four seed. If Purdue can win its last two or Maryland can take care of business, the Buckeyes will have to settle for a double bye to the Big Ten quarterfinals.
If the Buckeyes win two of three, a 5- or 6-seed appears likely. Historically that's good positioning for the Big Ten Tournament, but the wins are shaded by the 6-seed playing the 11-seed in most years of the tournament's history. If the Buckeyes are a 6-seed, they will likely play Purdue or Maryland; otherwise, it's most likely Iowa, which has been hot.
If Ohio State loses two of three (most likely to Purdue and Wisconsin), its seed will stay the same or drop slightly. Iowa would surely pass Ohio State; Indiana, which is running half a game behind the Buckeyes, would benefit as well. In the worst-case scenario, the Buckeyes drop their last three, which could allow Illinois and Michigan to sneak past the Buckeyes in the tiebreakers.
Here's the bottom line: if the Buckeyes beat Purdue and Penn State like they should, they are in the running for a coveted top-four seed. If not, they'll have to win at least one game in Chicago to feel good about their NCAA Tournament chances.
The Buckeyes have had success in the tournament before, and they can do so again. Ohio State has won more tournament games than any other team in the Big Ten, winning the tournament four times and finishing second four more times. Matta has the best winning percentage of any coach in the tournament, which means he knows how to get the job done.
The Buckeyes have the historical bona fides. More important than historical success, though, is seeding.
