As the Buckeyes prepare to face Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament, the mood is subdued. It's hard to blame fans for being dispirited after what happened against Wisconsin on Senior Day; things like "staying within 20 points" and "not being humiliated on national TV" are high on most people's wishlists.
Even so, it's not all bad: even if fans aren't high on the team, non-fans peg Ohio State as one of the favorites to win the Big Ten Tournament. Oddsmakers have pegged the Buckeyes as a 9:2 choice to win the whole shebang, the second-best odds in the conference.
This is the point where many would sneer at the Las Vegas gambling types. What do they know about Ohio State that we don't? They haven't seen the way the Buckeyes have struggled at times, or the ins and outs of this mercurial team. They don't care about Ohio State at all.
All of that is true: the oddsmakers don't care about Ohio State, which makes their opinion useful. They are totally disinterested in the most self-interested way: making money on fans who do care. Oddsmakers do this by analyzing teams and conveying proper odds, and their initial Big Ten Tournament odds suggest the Buckeyes are one of the best bets.
Let's start with the odds given to Ohio State: 9:2. In theory, this would give the Buckeyes a 2-in-11 chance of winning the whole thing, or 18.2 percent. Oddsmakers inflate the probability for each team to win to stimulate betting, so let's adjust it to a 16 percent chance of winning the tournament. That's better than the other top contenders, Michigan State (11.3%), Maryland (ditto) and Iowa (9%), especially since the top team (Wisconsin, 47%) is such a heavy favorite.
There is one caveat: Ohio State's numbers are still likely inflated. As a team with a large fanbase and a NBA draft pick, some casual fans will pick Ohio State no matter what, which means the 9:2 odds are higher than some schlub team like Nebraska would get.
Even so, the predictive models that form the basis of oddsmakers' projections are higher on Ohio State than most fans, who are leery of facing other top teams after what happened on Sunday. The Big Ten Tournament predictions by Ken Pomeroy, a prominent basketball statistician, gave Ohio State a 7.5% chance of winning the championship.
| First Round | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 72.7% | 36.7% | 23.2% | 7.5% |
In this Log5 model, the Buckeyes have the fourth-best odds of winning the tournament. Ohio State's odds will be slightly lower since Minnesota beat Rutgers to give the Bucks a tougher first opponent, but they are still strong. The model suggests that Ohio State has a better-than-even chance of defeating three-seed Michigan State in the quarterfinals – a reasonable idea, since the Buckeyes only lost to the Spartans by three points on the road.
Should the Buckeyes advance to the semifinals, they would have about a 63 percent chance of playing on Sunday. This is because the opponent (one of Maryland, Indiana, or Northwestern) is a worse team. In fact, Ohio State is 3-1 against these three teams, with only a close loss in Assembly Hall marring the record.
If Ohio State does get to Sunday and Wisconsin is its opponent... well, the Buckeyes are likely screwed, but upsets do happen. 6-foot-4 Jae'Sean Tate and 6-foot-7 Sam Thompson had some success guarding Big Ten Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky, freeing up Ohio State's big men to match the Badgers' length elsewhere. The Buckeyes were ice cold for much of the game, and even then they made a comeback in the second half that got moribund Value City Arena rocking.
Even if Ohio State flames out against Minnesota today, there are trends beyond what the Buckeyes do that hold true. Teams with the talent and success of Ohio State tend to do well in tournament settings, and this team is better than Senior Day against Wisconsin would lead many to believe.
