Last April, I wrote an story about how Ohio State men's basketball would have unusual height over the next few years. Well, I'm no Nostradamus.
After the 2014-15 season, Ohio State suffered a great deal of attrition. Six seniors, gone. First-team All-American point guard, gone. Four rotation players return and seven newly eligible players will try to continue the success in 2015-16, but they will be much younger.
More to the point, they will be much shorter.
Departing | Height | Incoming | Height | Diff. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Shannon Scott | 6-1 | A.J. Harris | 5-9 | -4 |
D'Angelo Russell | 6-5 | Austin Grandstaff | 6-4 | -1 |
Sam Thompson | 6-7 | JaQuan Lyle | 6-5 | -2 |
Trey McDonald | 6-8 | Mickey Mitchell | 6-7 | -1 |
Anthony Lee | 6-9 | Daniel Giddens | 6-10 | +1 |
Amir Williams | 6-11 | Trevor Thompson | 6-11 | 0 |
The Buckeyes began 2014-15 with a large starting lineup: Shannon Scott, D'Angelo Russell, Sam Thompson, Marc Loving and Amir Williams. None of them had extraordinary height for their positions, but they were all taller than the national average at their positions. In addition, Ohio State had at least three large bench players to rely on: Keita Bates-Diop (6-foot-7), Trey McDonald (6-foot-8) and Anthony Lee (6-foot-9).
In general, having height is a good thing. It has strong correlations to statistics like block percentage, opponent field goal percentage, and adjusted defensive efficiency. But in 2014-15, things fell apart; the centers could not hold.
Williams was maddeningly inconsistent, and backup Trey McDonald was even more unreliable. Lee made little impact, and a February injury ended his season. Bates-Diop lost playing time when the bench was shortened. And Loving, the starting wing, had an up-and-down season marred by a mid-year suspension.
None of Ohio State's tallest players was consistent or reliable in 2014-15. In fact, it was 6-foot-4 Jae'Sean Tate – one of the shortest "big men" in the country – who became the team's go-to rebounder.
The Buckeyes finished the season with an effective height of +0.7, meaning they were essentially the 55th tallest team in the country. That's not bad nationally, but it put them 11th in the Big Ten. What should have been a significant, top-20 height advantage turned into a disadvantage against most opponents.
The Buckeyes gain several tall players next year: Virginia Tech transfer Trevor Thompson, redshirt freshman Dave Bell and incoming freshman Daniel Giddens. Even so, the Buckeyes lose about seven inches of height from their roster. Any height advantage they held last year will be gone.
Although it's hard to project a starting lineup for 2015-16, a few players are cinches. Jae'Sean Tate will be a starting forward, and A.J. Harris is the likely point guard. JaQuan Lyle will likely be the starting shooting guard. At the risk of appearing foolish, let's say Marc Loving and Trevor Thompson are the other two starters.
Pos. | Player | height |
---|---|---|
G | A.J. Harris | 5-9 |
G | JaQuan Lyle | 6-5 |
G | Marc Loving | 6-7 |
F | Jae'Sean Tate | 6-4 |
F | Trevor Thompson | 6-11 |
This lineup could work, but it has potential flaws. As dynamic as Harris may be, he'll be at a size disadvantage against anyone. Loving is a streaky shooter. Lyle appears ready for the college game, but Tate will not stretch the defense, and the 5-spot is a big question mark. Without any seniors on the team, this lineup could break down.
There are three players on the team with typical power forward/center size: Thompson, Daniel Giddens and redshirt freshman Dave Bell. If none of them are prepared to be 25-minute contributors, Ohio State may need to play a hefty dose of small ball this season.
In basketball, small ball is a strategy that trades height for speed and shooting. If everyone on the court is an outside scoring threat, forwards and centers have to leave the paint to chase their man, or else give up an uncontested jump shot. If those defenders come too far outside, the dribbler can slash past them to an easy layup, or send the ball outside for an open three if the rest of the defense collapses on him.
This strategy does have tradeoffs, though. Last year, due to the inefficacy of Williams, McDonald and Lee, Thad Matta was forced to go small at times. Against Wisconsin, Matta stuck Jae'Sean Tate on 7-foot Frank Kaminsky, who just happened to be the national player of the year. Tate found some early success defending Kaminsky when given help defense:
...but it didn't last. Wisconsin was the fourth-tallest team in the country, and the height disparity was too much for the Buckeyes to overcome. Kaminsky overwhelmed Tate and all of the defenders he faced as the Badgers destroyed Ohio State on senior day.
Even though it didn't work against Wisconsin, small ball has been used to great effect elsewhere. Indiana, which was hamstrung by injuries and other attrition last season, put together some of its best performances with 6-foot-7 Troy Williams as the tallest player on the court. In the pros, the Golden State Warriors are making small ball more credible than ever.
One of the Warriors' most common lineups is Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson/Andre Iguodala/Harrison Barnes/Draymond Green, in which 6-foot-7 Draymond Green acts as the center. Even though small ball is growing in popularity, this lineup is virtually unthinkable in the NBA. Yet it's one of the best defensive lineups for the Warriors, the league's best defensive team.
Pos. | Player | height |
---|---|---|
G | Kam Williams | 6-2 |
G | JaQuan Lyle | 6-5 |
G/F | Marc Loving | 6-7 |
F | Keita Bates-Diop | 6-7 |
F/C | Jae'Sean Tate | 6-4 |
Ohio State might not equal the Golden State Warriors in 2015-16, but there's one key strategy to take away from the Warriors' success: switching.
Golden State has umpteen players between 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-7, which gives players the versatility to switch defensive assignments without creating a mismatch. This year, nine Buckeyes will be 6-foot-7 or shorter, and six (Tate, Lyle, Loving, Bates-Diop, Mickey Mitchell and Austin Grandstaff) will be between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-7. Ohio State could run much the same system, meaning fewer defensive mismatches and better on-ball defense.
One potential lineup, Kam Williams/JaQuan Lyle/Marc Loving/Keita Bates-Diop/Jae'Sean Tate, lacks big men entirely, yet it has two players with the height to stand up to opposing centers and one player (Tate) with experience doing the same. If the opponent only has one hulking player in the game, the Buckeyes could put something like this together and force them to react.
On offense, a small ball lineup would depend heavily on Tate to grab rebounds and for Loving and Bates-Diop to become more active rebounders. All are former top 100 players; they have that ability. And a lineup with four quick scorers could give the Buckeyes some life when they are in a scoring funk.
Small ball isn't a cure-all solution; against opponents who are both large and skilled, it will fail. After four years of frustrating center play, though, the Buckeyes may want to consider playing some small ball this fall.