For whatever reason, it seems every time Ohio State and Northwestern play at Welsh-Ryan Arena, the game comes down to the wire. Four of the last five times the Buckeyes and Wildcats squared off in Evanston, Illinois, the game was decided by three points or fewer.
Ohio State is 4-1 in those games under Thad Matta — the lone loss came during the 2008-09 season — but when Matta was asked what it was about the matchup at Northwestern that seems to always bring a close game, the Buckeyes head coach did not really have an answer.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern (13-2, 1-1) | Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, Ill.) | 9 p.m. | BTN |
"I wish I knew, I wish I had an answer," Matta said Tuesday. "It’s just always been a tough game up there for us.”
Last season's game at Northwestern was just further evidence of that, as Ohio State escaped with a 69-67 win on the shoulders of a sensational 33-point effort from D'Angelo Russell.
Welsh-Ryan Arena is again the site of Wednesday's game between the Buckeyes and Wildcats. Ohio State is hoping to extend its current six-game winning streak while Northwestern attempts to bounce back from its first Big Ten loss of the year — a 72-59 drubbing at the hands of third-ranked Maryland.
A win would put the Buckeyes at 3-0 in the Big Ten and would be a great start to a stretch which features four out of five on the road.
Opponent Breakdown
It's well-documented Northwestern has never made the NCAA tournament, but after this 13-2 start to this season there are thoughts creeping into the minds of a lot of fans in Evanston. This might be the year.
The Wildcats have had a strong start to the year despite losing sophomore Vic Law before things even got started due to a season-ending shoulder injury. Just recently, Northwestern also lost its starting center, Alex Olah, to a foot injury. Olah was averaging 12.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game before getting injured.
The play of point guard Bryant McIntosh, though, has been what's allowed the Wildcats to not miss much of a beat despite those two key injuries. McIntosh is eighth in the Big Ten in scoring at 15.9 points per game and is tied for the league lead in assists at 7.1 per game. Tre Demps, a fifth-year senior guard, has also been steady for Northwestern, leading the Big Ten in minutes played per game (36.4) while averaging 14.9 points per game.
The Wildcats rank near the middle of the Big Ten in both scoring offense (sixth, 78.6 points per game) and scoring defense (seventh, 64.8 points per game). Northwestern's 1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio is tops in the Big Ten. The Wildcats rank 50th in KenPom's advanced statistical ratings and are 33rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.
This isn't your average Northwestern team.
"They have a couple players who score the ball at a high level," Ohio State sophomore forward Jae'Sean Tate said of the Wildcats. "It’s going to be a very big gap-oriented game and we’ve got to lock the shooters.”
Added Matta: "I think that this team is really kind of coming into its own and I think that the energy that they have and the pieces of the puzzle that they have, it’s a very, very good basketball team.”
Buckeye Breakdown
Ohio State won a game it couldn't afford to lose Sunday night when it held on to defeat Illinois, 75-73. As mentioned above, the Buckeyes moved to 2-0 in Big Ten play win the victory and have a chance to start 3-0 — a feat that didn't seem possible when they were 2-4 to start the year — if they can find a way to beat Northwestern.
Junior forward Marc Loving had a career-high 27 points in that win over the Illini and is averaging 23.5 points per game in the first two Big Ten contests of the season. Keita Bates-Diop continued his consistent season scoring 11 points and grabbing nine rebounds in the win over Illinois. Bates-Diop is averaging 12.9 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this season.
With Loving, Bates-Diop and Tate leading the way, Ohio State is playing much better basketball now than it did earlier in the season.
“It’s definitely a confidence thing," Tate said. "I feel like just the vibes in the locker room, when you’re winning they are always great, but also how coaches make us look at after every game we’ve played what we can do better and us just learning off of that."
The Buckeyes are a modest 55th in KenPom's advanced statistical ratings, but Ohio State is rated as one of the top defensive teams in the country — ranked 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. It also ranks fourth in the Big Ten in scoring defense (63.6 points per game), third in field-goal percentage defense (38 percent) and second in blocked shots (6.2 per game).
"How good are we?" Matta asked, rhetorically. "I don’t know that, but I think we’re playing better."
How It Plays Out
The last time Ohio State played a true road game it was ugly; the Buckeyes were routed by 20 points at Connecticut on Dec. 12.
Matta says he has seen improvement in his team since that day, though, and said the win over Kentucky in Brooklyn felt very much like a road contest. Ohio State won that game over the ninth-ranked Wildcats, 74-67.
Playing away from home in the Big Ten is difficult no matter where you go. And, as history has shown, things are never easy for the Buckeyes when they play at Northwestern.
“I think on the road you’ve got to have a certain mindset," redshirt sophomore guard Kam Williams said. "It’s only us out there, everyone else is against you. As long as we hone in on what we need to do and our keys I think we’ll be fine.”
Ohio State needs to contain McIntosh and Demps if it wants to have any shot of winning this game, and it can't afford to fall behind early in what's expected to be a hostile environment. Northwestern is a slight 2.5-point favorite, but this game feels like it really could go either way — much like the previous meetings at Welsh-Ryan Arena have.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 68, Northwestern 67
