There has been a bit of chatter in recent weeks surrounding Ohio State and how it had the potential to play its way onto the NCAA tournament bubble. The Buckeyes, despite a mediocre record and resume, still could not be eliminated from the tournament conversation simply because of how their schedule finished.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State (25-5, 12-5) | Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.) | noon | ESPN |
Now, as Ohio State prepares to end its regular-season Saturday in East Lansing, the picture is a bit clearer: Beat Michigan State, win a game or two in the Big Ten tournament and there's an argument to be made for the Buckeyes sneaking into the Field of 68. A win against the Spartans is far from a guarantee Ohio State gets in the field, but it's certainly a major step in the right direction.
That's easier said than done, of course. No. 2-ranked Michigan State is playing as well as anybody in college right basketball right now and winning at Breslin Center — on Senior Day, no less — is about as difficult as it gets.
But the Buckeyes have a chance, and after how this season started, that's really all they could ask for.
"I think, right now, this team is sitting in a position at 11-6 in the Big Ten and quite honestly if in December I said we were going to be 11-6 going in to Michigan State you guys would have laughed at me," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said Friday. "So I like where we are and you’ve got a logjam in terms of a lot is going to be decided this weekend just in terms of the Big Ten standings and then you take a quick break and go on to next week.
"At that point maybe there’s a little more to it, but I know this: Regardless of NCAA tournament or whatever it is, we’re going to have to play great basketball [Saturday].”
Opponent Breakdown
Anybody who watches college basketball knows how good Michigan State is.
The Spartans have the frontrunner for Big Ten Player of the Year and a National Player of the Year candidate in Denzel Valentine, but they also have a supporting cast that has been stellar all year long.
Valentine's main sidekick this season, though, is fellow senior Bryn Forbes, who is the Big Ten's best 3-point shooter and actually set the single-game record for 3-pointers made in Michigan State's 97-66 win at Rutgers on Wednesday night with 11. Ohio State is well-aware how good Forbes is, too, as he connected on 7-of-10 attempts from downtown just last week when these two teams squared off at Value City Arena.
"He lit us up last time," Buckeyes junior forward Marc Loving said of Forbes.
The Spartans torched the nets as a team that night in Columbus, making 14-of-22 attempts. Michigan State was as efficient as a team could be in the second half — the Spartans shot 64.3 percent from the field in the second 20 minutes — which helped turn a five-point halftime lead into a 19-point victory.
But efficiency is kind of Michigan State's thing. According to KenPom's advanced statistical ratings, the Spartans rank No. 1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. You want defense, too? Michigan State ranks 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency.
We've said it all along, but perhaps it needs repeated once more: The Spartans are a legitimate candidate to win the national championship as one of the best teams in the country.
Buckeye Breakdown
Sunday's win over Iowa should not be downplayed as it was arguably Ohio State's biggest victory of the season. The Buckeyes, who are still adjusting to playing without sophomore forward Jae'Sean Tate, finally broke through against a top-tier Big Ten team after weeks of coming up short.
But Michigan State is a different animal, and Matta knows his team must play better.
"We’ve had a tendency to get down early [at Michigan State] and have to fight and scrape and claw," Matta said. "That’s one of those places that you have to be as together as you can possibly be on every possession and we have had some incredible battles."
Loving is coming off what was arguably the best game of his career in that win over the Hawkeyes in with a 25-point performance. Keita-Bates Diop (19 points) and Kam Williams (11 second-half points) were also key for Ohio State in the win.
But the Buckeyes are going to need more if they want to pull off the upset.
Ohio State had a little bit of success in the first half of the first meeting with Michigan State by somewhat uglying up the game. The Spartans are lethal when they can get out in transition so the Buckeyes may be better off trying to slow this one down. The problem with that, however, is Ohio State isn't exactly the most efficient team in the halfcourt. Michigan State is pretty good at that, too, but it's somewhat of a pick your poison against the Spartans and the slow-it-down, drag-it-out style seems like it would be the Buckeyes' best option.
Ohio State must do a better job defending Michigan State's shooters, though, or it won't really matter much.
How It Plays Out
The Buckeyes won't say how much they need to win this game to increase their NCAA tournament chances — you get a lot of "one game at a time" stuff with them — but perhaps it doesn't really need to be said.
Still, at the end of the day, sometimes it just comes down to who has the better players and the better team. That's the Spartans right now and with Michigan State playing at home, on Senior Day, it's hard for me to envision a scenario in which Ohio State wins this game.
I think the Buckeyes have the potential to keep it close for a little bit, but in the end the Spartans' efficiency is just too much for Ohio State to handle.
Tim's prediction: Michigan State 76, Ohio State 64
