Long gone are questions of what happened to Ohio State’s winning ways.
Nowadays, the Buckeyes are looking at a top-six seed in the NCAA tournament and top-seven seed in the Big Ten tournament with hopes of both advancing further than before in the Chris Holtmann era in both of them. They’ve won nine of their past 11 games, shooting up to No. 19 in the Associated Press top-25 poll.
| Who | Where | When | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 16 Michigan State (21-9, 13-6) | Breslin Center (East Lansing, Michigan) | 4:30 p.m. | CBS |
Yet in the regular season finale they’ll be underdogs.
Michigan State, ranked 16th, plays host to Ohio State at the Breslin Center on Sunday. The game tips off at 4:30 p.m., and it will mark Cassius Winston’s last game in East Lansing.
Just like the Buckeyes (21-9, 11-8 Big Ten), Tom Izzo’s Spartans (21-9, 13-6 Big Ten) have gotten on a bit of a roll lately. They’re riding a four-game winning streak, having won five of the past six games, including victories against Penn State, Iowa, Maryland and Illinois.
On Sunday, two Big Ten teams that haven’t lost in at least two-and-a-half weeks will collide.
Three Important Spartans
Cassius Winston (6-foot-1, 185 pounds)
The already legendary Spartans guard will play his final game in front of a home crowd on Sunday in what’s sure to be an emotional Breslin Center. Winston, last season’s Big Ten Player of the Year, is leading the Spartans in both points per game (18.3) and assists per game (5.9). The only goal for Ohio State against him? Don’t get torched. He’ll get his buckets, but the Buckeyes can’t allow him to take over the game. Essentially anything else is a win.
Xavier Tillman Sr. (6-foot-8, 245 pounds)
The big-bodied forward recently became a father, so now he officially has Dad Strength. Beyond that added, always important variable, Tillman averages a double-double, recording 13.7 points and 10.4 rebounds in 32 minutes per game. He’ll be another stiff matchup for Kaleb Wesson in the middle. He shoots 54.8 percent from the field.
Rocket Watts (6-foot-2, 185 pounds)
The aptly named freshman has come into his own recently, scoring at least 13 points in each of the past three games. Like most freshmen, Watts has had quite a few highs and lows this season. But as it wraps up on Saturday, he’s becoming a more relied-upon scorer. He has, however, struggled with efficiency. Watts has hit 38.5 percent of his shots from the field and 27 percent of his 3-pointers, yet he attempts more than four triples per game.
Three Important Buckeyes
CJ Walker
In recent weeks, Walker has begun to find his groove. He’s scored in double figures in five consecutive games for the first time in his career, averaging 10.8 points, 4.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 turnovers in 33.3 minutes in the past 10 games. Facing a talented Winston-led backcourt, Walker will need to play with a high degree of efficiency.
E.J. Liddell
The best basketball of Liddell’s career has come at an optimal time for Ohio State, which is gearing up for postseason play. The freshman forward, coming off a 17-point, 11-rebound performance against his home-state team Illinois, will try to maintain momentum in enemy territory. With Kyle Young unavailable, as he continues dealing with a high ankle sprain, Liddell will again be important for the Buckeyes.
Luther Muhammad
Throughout the Big Ten slate, Muhammad has consistently drawn every opponent’s top perimeter offensive weapon, and that figures to again be the case on Saturday. There’s a good chance he’ll end up assigned to Winston, one of the nation’s best guards. On the other end, he’ll try to get back into an offensive rhythm. Muhammad shot 0-for-6 from the field against Illinois and has missed all four 3-point attempts in the past four games. Shooting on the road has been an issue for the Buckeyes this season.
Three Numbers To Know
Opposing Shooting Percentages
Within the Big Ten, the Spartans trot out the best defense, which also happens to be one of the best in the country. Funny how that works out. Michigan State ranks second in the nation with an opponent effective field-goal percentage of 43.1. Opponents shoot 43.1 percent from 2-point range (9th) and 28.7 percent from 3-point range (7th). Izzo’s bunch will be a challenge for an Ohio State team that hasn’t shot well away from Columbus.
Turnover Rate
Metrics look fondly upon Michigan State. So, where do the Spartans struggle? Turnover rate. They’re last in the Big Ten at 18.7 percent. In non-steal turnovers, Michigan State ranks 13th in the conference ... only ahead of Ohio State. Both teams have fared better in the turnover category recently, though.
Assist Rate
Quite literally nobody in the nation can match Michigan State’s assist rate. Of its made shots this season, 65 percent have been assisted. This is a staple of Izzo-coached teams. The Spartans also ranked first in assist rate in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Winston, who has the 17th-best individual assist rate in the country, leads the charge, of course. Tillman (3.0) and Aaron Henry (2.9) are the two other Spartans who average more than two assists per game.
Other Notes
- Kyle Ahrens, a native of Versailles, Ohio, will be going through Senior Day in East Lansing. His brother, Justin, is a sophomore for Ohio State.
- Both regular season finales in the Chris Holtmann era remained tied when regulation ended. Ohio State beat Indiana on the road in double-overtime two seasons ago and lost to Wisconsin at home in overtime last year.
- Holtmann’s Ohio State teams are 1-3 against Michigan State, with the sole victory coming against the then-top-ranked Spartans on Jan. 7, 2018.
- The last time the Buckeyes played at Michigan State, they scored 44 points.
How It Plays Out
Precedent has shown Ohio State as a totally different team offensively on the road compared to at home. Facing Michigan State, one of the best defensive teams in the country, spells danger. The Buckeyes, though, have looked as though they turned the corner recently. They have a path to winning if Winston is contained, Kaleb Wesson wins his matchup with Tillman and the 3-pointers fall. But how do you pick against the Spartans on Winston’s Senior Day? You don’t.
Prediction: Michigan State 70, Ohio State 65
