It all begins on Thursday.
That afternoon, fifth-seeded Ohio State takes on either Minnesota or Northwestern in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. Both teams beat the Buckeyes earlier this season, though they have each endured significant struggles over the past couple of months, meaning they’ll be clear underdogs. If things go as head coach Chris Holtmann and his players hope, that’ll just be the first of four games in four days.
So, what has to happen for Ohio State to make a run in the conference tournament? Here are five key factors.
Will The Stars Consistently Play Like Stars?
One of Chris Holtmann’s favorite cliches is “players win games.” Others like “big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games.” Ultimately, a lot of them come back to the same central theme. A team needs its best players to play really well in key moments.
For the Buckeyes, that means a reliance on E.J. Liddell and Duane Washington Jr. to come through in postseason play.
Liddell, in particular, has given the Buckeyes a lift by taking a massive step forward as a sophomore to average 16 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. As the season has progressed, he has added a quality 3-point stroke to his repertoire, making him a dynamic three-level scorer. Six times in the last 13 games, he has crossed the 20-point threshold. The consistency with which he has provided the Ohio State offense will need to continue if this team is to win a few games in the Big Ten tournament.
Holtmann, though, is looking to Liddell for more impact on the other side of the court. Ohio State’s path to a Big Ten championship would go through a number of physical centers, each of whom would challenge his defensive capabilities.
“His offense will always be there because he's so gifted,” Holtmann said on his 97.1 radio show on Monday. “We've just really tried to focus with him on what our team needs is we need more consistent effort on the defensive end, on ball-screen situations, just across the board. That's really what we've been trying to preach on a day-to-day basis with him because that's what this team needs.”
The same points about needing more defensively ring true about Washington, too. But his consistency and efficiency on offense is more of a question than it is for Liddell.
The gunner from the two-guard spot found a rhythm offensively in early-to-mid February, getting to the rack and finishing at the rim better than ever before in his three-year collegiate career. The driving ability combined with his stroke from behind the arc to turn him into a deadly scorer. In the past three games, though, Washington is shooting 36.4 percent from the floor and is 4-for-20 from 3. He did make some important passes to tie a season-high with six assists against Illinois, but that ultimately wasn’t enough to make up for his late-game misses.
If either Liddell or Washington are off their games, it’s hard to imagine Ohio State making much of a run in the conference tournament.
Can They Get Enough Stops When Necessary?
The never-ending question about this team maybe shouldn’t even be much of a question anymore.
Quite simply, this season’s Ohio State team isn’t a very good defensive team. The lack of length and size in the post and mediocre defense on the perimeter from offense-first guards and wings have just about set that in stone. But that hasn’t stopped Holtmann from preaching defense and keying on that as something that absolutely has to improve for the Buckeyes to make noise either in the Big Ten or NCAA tournaments.
Remember: Only one team ranked as low as Ohio State is in adjusted defensive efficiency – 2002-03 Marquette led by Dwyane Wade – has made the Final Four. Teams that struggle this much defensively aren’t typically built to win consecutively in the postseason.
Whatever improvements the Buckeyes can make on the defensive end at this point in the calendar have to be evident later this week.
How Does Ohio State Finish Games?
The obvious one on everybody’s minds after seeing the past few games.
For a good bit of the season, end-of-game scenarios didn’t appear to be a significant issue for the Buckeyes. They closed out their fair share of games, often by going bucket-for-bucket late in games. Clearly, that hasn’t happened lately.
Justice Sueing’s behind-the-back turnover late against Michigan helped sink the Buckeyes a few weeks ago. Their inability to score down the stretch ended hopes of wins both against Michigan State and Illinois. Even in the 16-point loss to Iowa, Ohio State had a chance to make it competitive and failed to do so, making one shot from the field in the final 10 minutes.
Late-game offense is, of course, a major part of what wins games in tournament play. If the Buckeyes manage to get all the way to Sunday’s Big Ten title game, you would have to imagine that they close out at least one of their previous three games down the stretch by getting clutch buckets that they’ve failed to score of late. Those shots are a big part of what puts the Madness in March.
Do The Role Players Show Up When Called Upon?
When Ohio State really had it rolling, it felt like on any given day a role player or two would step up with a big performance in a key spot. Sometimes it was Justice Sueing. Other times it was Kyle Young. Justin Ahrens had his moments. So, too, did Zed Key , Seth Towns and Musa Jallow. Even Gene Brown and Meechie Johnson hit some important shots.
To advance in the Big Ten tournament, those various contributions will have to be felt more by the Buckeyes than they have been of late.
Sueing played one of his better games as a Buckeye against Illinois, accounting for 15 points and five boards on 4-of-6 shooting, but the inconsistent forward hadn't played with the physicality and aggressiveness his team needed in several previous games in February. Young hasn't topped eight points or seven boards in his past five games, shooting below 50 percent from the field in each of them. Ahrens has hit just 3-of-11 3-pointers in the past four games. Key has accounted for 14 points and nine boards in the past four games combined, making mistakes defensively that have limited his time on the court. Towns hasn't scored more than three points in a game in over a month. Jallow has battled a sprained ankle and continues to largely be a non-factor offensively, though he does offer a boost as a wing defender.
That collection of Buckeyes needs to step up later this week for them to have a chance to advance.
Did The Buckeyes Learn From Their Failures?
This actually applies to a couple of topics.
Ohio State has to show what it learned both from its four-game skid and the games it has lost to its upcoming opponents. It’s a lot of learning from losing, but it’s important.
The Buckeyes will tip off Thursday’s game without having won a game in three weeks, and regardless of whether they’re going up against Northwestern or Minnesota, they’ll be facing a team they have already lost to. Should they advance to the quarterfinals, they’d meet a Purdue team that got the better of them twice in the regular season. A semifinals matchup would likely come against Michigan, which topped Ohio State in February.
How much can the Buckeyes take from those losses and apply to their Big Ten tournament approach? We’re all about to find out.
