CJ Walker listed off just about everybody.
He thanked his Ohio State coaches, his teammates, his teammates’ parents, his family, his daughter. The fifth-year senior point guard from Indianapolis, having taken the microphone for his Senior Day speech after the Buckeyes lost to Illinois in the regular season finale, tried to leave nobody unmentioned.
In the midst of those thank-yous, the team’s vocal leader directed a message to his fellow players.
“Let’s try to figure this out, try to get better as a team going into March,” Walker said to those in the Schottenstein Center on Saturday. “We’re going to try to win. Let’s just try to get it together.”
Kyle Young, a fellow senior, offered up similar thoughts only minutes later.
“It was a disappointing loss tonight, but I know we’re going to come in and work hard every day, so let’s get back to work,” Young said.
The work effectively began that night when they reflected back on their loss to the Illini. Since then, preparation for what’s next – the Big Ten tournament – has only ramped up.
A day after their most recent loss, the conference finalized the bracket, setting fifth-seeded Ohio State up to take on either 12th-seeded Northwestern or 13th-seeded Minnesota in a second-round matchup on Thursday. If the Buckeyes get through that day with their first win in three weeks, they’d advance to the quarterfinals on Friday with Purdue awaiting them. Top-seeded Michigan would presumably be sitting as their next opponent in the semifinals, with perhaps Illinois or Iowa up next in the championship game.
Recent underwhelming results – otherwise known as a four-game losing streak – have dampered the expectations of those in Columbus. But the Buckeyes still have the fourth-best betting odds to win the conference title, per Bovada, at +650 behind Michigan (+190), Illinois (+200) and Iowa (+450) but ahead of Purdue (+750) and Wisconsin (+1200). KenPom’s numbers give them a 77.3 percent chance to make the quarterfinals, 42.9 percent chance to make the semifinals, 18.3 percent chance to make the title game and 7.9 percent chance to win the championship.
In other words, everything’s on the table. So, here are the reasons both for optimism and pessimism about these Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament.
Why Ohio State Will Make a Run
Recent history is what it is. Ohio State can’t change the last four results at this point. But in the not-too-distant past, this team showed it can hang with anybody in the Big Ten. It beat Illinois and Iowa, two of the top-four seeds in the tournament, along with Wisconsin, Rutgers, Maryland and Michigan State. Its loss to top-seeded Michigan came by five points in what was a tight game late, and its pair of defeats at the hands of Purdue were first without an active E.J. Liddell then due to a late-game 3 from Jaden Ivey.
In essence, the Buckeyes have either won games against or fallen just short of beating every single team they’ll play – outside of Minnesota. A four-game stretch this week with four straight victories, regardless of who they meet, is certainly doable.
Plus, this Ohio State team, it should be remembered, has an offense that should be capable of out-scoring anybody in the conference, provided it can find its groove once more. It finished the regular season with the highest adjusted offensive efficiency by any Buckeye team since Thad Matta’s 2010-11 squad. As a team, Ohio State showed it had taken some offensive strides in the regular season finale against Illinois, and it can build on that as it begins the Big Ten tournament.
E.J. Liddell has the respect of coaches around the league, as evidenced by his inclusion on the first-team All-Big Ten team, and for good reason. The versatile forward has turned into a more potent scorer as the season has progressed. His offensive game should translate on a night-in, night-out basis in a tournament setting with perhaps less time to put in a specific game plan to defend him. He’ll need some help, of course, and a revitalized Duane Washington Jr. should be beneficial. We’ve all seen him go on high-scoring and efficient four-game runs before. Both Liddell and Washington are lesser-known on the national stage, and they’ll want to show they deserve some more respect.
The necessity of having veterans guards in the postseason has become a cliche over the years, but that's because it has some truth to it. The Buckeyes will roll out Washington and CJ Walker, who has experienced an under-the-radar renaissance over the past month. The experience from some of the upperclassmen elsewhere – including Justice Sueing, Kyle Young, Justin Ahrens and Seth Towns – should prove beneficial for this team in the postseason.
Why Ohio State Won’t Make a Run
Few teams have so little margin for error as Ohio State.
Its offense looked discombobulated against both Iowa and Michigan State down the stretch, and if that continues in the postseason, it’s tough to imagine this team making much of a run. The defense continues to be a major area of concern. None of the point totals allowed by the Buckeyes in the last three losses of the season were above 73, but their adjusted defensive efficiency metrics got worse over that stretch with each passing game.
It’s pretty simple: If Ohio State’s offense is humming, it can go far in the conference tournament, but if it sputters at all, the defense likely won’t be able to make up for the lull. That’s an uncomfortable spot to be in in a situation like this where winning consecutively is the objective.
Offensively, the Buckeyes can probably expect quality performances out of Liddell. But elsewhere? That’s where the questions come into play. The inconsistency of Washington and Sueing make it difficult to know how they’ll play on a daily basis, and Kyle Young, Justin Ahrens and Seth Towns haven’t impacted games recently the way they did earlier in the year.
Plus, it should be noted, all of the teams Ohio State will likely run into have beaten the Buckeyes at least once this season, beginning with their opening matchup. And there’s also a good chance they have to go up against centers who have already given them trouble – Minnesota’s Liam Robbins, Purdue’s Trevion Williams and Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson – before they even get to the conference championship game. As expected, easy matchups don’t exist in the Big Ten tournament.
Those picking the Buckeyes to get bounced early see too many of these factors to view this team as likely to make a run.
