Ohio State survived to see another day of NCAA Tournament play Friday, but the pathway to advance further gets a whole lot more arduous this afternoon.
No opponent the Buckeyes have faced this season ranked higher in the final AP poll than Villanova (No. 6), which holds the No. 2 seed in the South Region and is favored to end Ohio State’s run in the second round – where Chris Holtmann has yet to escape as the head coach of the Buckeyes.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova (27-7, 16-4 MVC) | PPG Paints Arena | 2:40 p.m. | CBS |
The Big East Tournament champions have won 11 of their past 12 games, including four victories over ranked opposition, and carries the momentum of a 20-point win over No. 15 seed Delaware into Sunday’s 2:40 p.m. tip-off against Ohio State. The Wildcats possess the ninth-best offense in the country, per KenPom, and are led by two-time Big Ten player of the year Collin Gillespie.
The Buckeyes put a halt to their recent downslide with a 54-41 win over Loyola – who many picked to pull the seed-line upset – in the first round of the tournament on Friday during a game in which Ohio State played its best defense of the season. It may take more of the same in conjunction with an improved offensive effort to get to the Sweet 16, but the Buckeyes are far from incapable of putting on such a performance.
“All along we knew we were a dangerous team, we just had to get things back rolling,” Ohio State guard Eugene Brown said Saturday. “We just feel like we have something to prove to everybody that counted us out, everybody that continues to count us out. It would mean a lot to us."
Holtmann takes on longtime mentor Jay Wright, a former Big East competitor from his days at Butler, as the Buckeyes and Wildcats duke it out for a chance to advance to San Antonio.
What to Watch For
High-octane offense
Besides possessing a top-10 offense in the country by KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric, Villanova is also the most prolific 3-point shooting team remaining in the NCAA Tournament, hitting 9.4 per game to place the Wildcats at 22nd-best in the country. Villanova has four players averaging at least 10 points per game, with two (Gillespie and Justin Moore) above the 15-point mark. Of particular emphasis for Holtmann is how Villanova uses its guards down low, as the Buckeye head coach believes his team’s size disadvantage in the backcourt could present issues defensively.
“Gillespie is a power guard, as well, really physical. I think that is a concern,” Holtmann said. “We're small and we're also slight at some of those spots. Malaki (Branham) is not short but he's slight. He's 18 years old. So it's very much a concern. It just really is, because they post their guards. They post their five-man, but they post their guards. Their best post players, along with their five-man, are their one and their second, so yeah, it's a concern.”
Can Holtmann break through?
Sunday marks the third time Holtmann has taken the Buckeyes to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but he’s never gotten beyond that barrier. Holtmann has made a Sweet 16 run before, doing so with Butler in 2016-17 before losing to North Carolina and taking the vacant Ohio State job the following offseason. Holtmann’s first Buckeye team beat South Dakota State before losing to Gonzaga as a No. 5 seed in the Round of 32 in 2018. The following year, Kaleb Wesson and the 11th-seeded Buckeyes knocked off No. 6 Iowa State before dropping to Houston.
Ohio State lost in the first round a season ago, but a surprise trip to the third round of the tournament this season could silence Holtmann’s critics that were emboldened by his late-season stumbles to end February and begin March.
Is improved Buckeye D sustainable?
The defensive turnaround Ohio State cobbled together in just an eight-day span was nothing short of jaw-dropping on Friday, as the Buckeyes went from the 131st-ranked defensive group in the country to holding Loyola to just 41 points on 26.8 percent shooting for the game. But can Ohio State keep up that level of intensity on defense? It will likely need to in order to slow down one of the most efficient offenses in the country, particularly when it comes to stopping the standout guard play of the Wildcat backcourt.
“I feel like we're going to have to (have a similar performance on defense) if we want to win,” Branham said. “If we just stay connected like we've been doing last game, I feel like we're going to be in good shape.”
Three Important Buckeyes
E.J. Liddell
Liddell got off to a slow start offensively on Friday and finished with just 16 points, low by his standards, but that was still enough to lead the Buckeye in a low-scoring win. Liddell did half of his damage at the free-throw line, knocking down 8-of-10 shots as he drew seven fouls on the day. The third-team All-American also pulled down 10 boards and blocked three shots during an impressive defensive effort by the Buckeyes across the board, and Liddell will once again be the focal point against the Wildcats on Sunday.
“That's a pro. I show our guys film, like everyone says this guy is a pro, that guy is a pro,” Wright said. “That's a pro. And he's a shot blocker, too, and the leading rebounder. So that's a basketball player. He's just a basketball player. He's going to be a handful.”
Malaki Branham
The matchup between Branham and Loyola guard Lucas Williamson figured to be a big one, and the freshman got the better of it on both sides of the floor. Branham finished with 14 points on 5-for-7 shooting, and his plus/minus of 18 led all Ohio State players. Branham will be crucial again for the Buckeyes against Villanova, as the Wildcats lean heavily on guard play and will likely throw second-team All-Big East guard Justin Moore at the first-year wing.
Jamari Wheeler
Ohio State’s wily veteran point guard will draw a difficult defensive assignment in matching up with Gillespie, who the Buckeyes must keep in check if they hope to have a chance at advancing past the second round. Wheeler shot just 1-for-4 in his NCAA Tournament debut against Loyola, scoring four points, dishing out just one assist and finishing with a plus/minus of seven in a 13-point Buckeye win. But he was instrumental in helping engineer a tremendous defensive effort from Ohio State, and he may need to do something similar against Gillespie and company.
Three Important Wildcats
| Player | Position | Height | Weight | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLLIN GILLESPIE | G | 6-3 | 195 | 15.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG |
| JUSTIN MOORE | G | 6-4 | 210 | 15 PPG, 5 RPG |
| BRANDON SLATER | F | 6-7 | 220 | 8.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG |
| JERMAINE SAMUELS | F | 6-7 | 230 | 10.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG |
| ERIC DIXON | F | 6-8 | 255 | 9.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG |
Collin Gillespie
Gillespie’s aforementioned hardware was not earned by accident. A bench contributor on Villanova’s national championship-winning 2017-18 team, Gillespie has started every game he’s appeared in since then for the Wildcats, racking up 121 starts over the course of his five-year college career. Gillespie leads Villanova with an average of 15.9 points per game, a career-high mark for the Pennsylvanian native, and he has also put up 3.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game to boot.
Aside from a five-point game against Connecticut in the Big East Tournament semifinals, Gillespie has scored at least 11 points in six of his last seven games. He knocked down four of his nine 3-point attempts against Delaware and is hitting 42.3 percent of his threes this season.
Justin Moore
There’s hardly a scoring drop-off when it comes to Villanova’s starting two-guard, as third-year Wildcat Justin Moore is averaging a team second-best 15.2 points per game this season. Moore has shot 40.8 percent from the field and 35.3 percent from the 3-point line and is not afraid to get his shot up, leading the team with an average of 12.8 shots per night. Moore also averages five rebounds and 2.3 assists per game, and the junior led all Wildcats with 21 points against Delaware in Villanova’s first-round win.
Jermaine Samuels
Like Gillespie, fifth-year Wildcat forward Jermaine Samuels played for Jay Wright’s NCAA champion Villanova squad in 2018, and now the 6-foot-7 frontcourt player is a key contributor for a team with similar aspirations. Averaging 10.5 points per game, Samuels is third on the Wildcat roster in scoring, while his 6.3 rebounds are tied for the most on the team. Samuels’ scoring contributions can often be feast or famine, but he tallied 15 points on 5-of-9 shooting and also pulled down nine boards against Delaware.
How It Plays Out
Line: Villanova -4.5, O/U: 131.5
With Kyle Young and Zed Key both active, the Buckeyes have depth and versatility that could give Villanova trouble if multiple Ohio State players not named E.J. Liddell and Malaki Branham step up to give the scarlet and gray a lift. But Villanova’s guards, namely Gillespie and Moore, figure to give Ohio State’s perimeter defense a great deal of trouble all afternoon. Factor in that Villanova enters on a six-game win streak, and it’s hard to pick against the Wildcats, although Ohio State won’t make it easy on them.
Prediction: Villanova 74, Ohio State 69
