It’s hard to call any game a must-win when a college basketball team is 12-4 in January, but Ohio State’s game at Michigan on Monday feels as close to a must-win as a game can be under those circumstances.
Michigan
Wolverines
Fresh off back-to-back losses at Indiana and at home against No. 15 Wisconsin, any momentum the Buckeyes gained in November and December would be completely gone with a third straight loss.
A defeat in Ann Arbor would also extend Ohio State’s road losing streak to 12 games dating back to last season. All of this is exacerbated by the fact that the Wolverines haven’t been a good team this season, opening with a 6-10 record including losses to Memphis, Long Beach State and McNeese. They have a 1-4 record in Big Ten play.
If it’s not a must-win, it’s at least a game the Buckeyes should win, even if it projects to be another raucous conference environment in Michigan’s first home game since the football team won the national championship.
Still, the approach of the Buckeyes remains even-keeled heading into their road showdown with their archrival.
“Anywhere that you go in the Big Ten, it’s gonna be a good environment,” Ohio State assistant coach Jack Owens said. “You’ve gotta play for 40 minutes, but we do expect a good crowd and also some things when you go on the road. But at the same time, it’s about our play, no matter what.”
Need to Know
Swiss cheese defense
The top source of Michigan’s trepidations this season has been its defense. The Wolverines allow 108.6 points per 100 possessions, 319th out of 362 teams in D-1 college basketball. They also let teams hit 35.5% of their three-point attempts, which is 310th nationally, and rank outside the top 300 in turnovers forced.
Sharpshooters
One thing Michigan does well is shoot the ball. The Wolverines rank 37th nationally in three-point field goal percentage, knocking down 37.4% of their attempts from beyond the arc. They rank 55th in shooting percentage overall at 47.6%.
Three Important Buckeyes
Jamison Battle
No Ohio State player is better suited to take advantage of Michigan’s weak perimeter defense than Battle. Nobody in the Big Ten has made more threes (51) or made them at a higher percentage (46.8%) than Battle, who came one triple shy against Wisconsin of becoming the first Buckeye ever to hit five threes in five consecutive contests.
Roddy Gayle Jr.
Ohio State needs its star shooting guard to break free from the slump he’s been in since dropping 32 points against West Virginia on Dec. 30. In three games since, he’s shot 11-of-45 (24.4%) with 12 turnovers against just five assists.
Scotty Middleton
Middleton has started to emerge as Ohio State’s sixth man, playing the next-most minutes after the Buckeyes’ starters in each of their last two games. He played 19 minutes against Wisconsin when no other bench player saw more than 10 minutes of action. Shooting 14-of-33 (42.4%) from distance on the year, the matchup with Michigan could be a chance for Middleton to improve on his 4.9 points per game.
“I think Scotty is going to continue to get better and provide some support and also defense,” Owens said.
Three Notable Wolverines
Dug McDaniel
| No. | Player | Position | Height | Weight | 2023-24 Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Dug McDaniel | G | 5-11 | 175 | 17.8 PPG, 5.1 APG |
| 4 | Nimari Burnett | G | 6-4 | 200 | 10.1 PPG, 2.6 APG |
| 5 | Terrance Williams II | F | 6-7 | 225 | 12.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG |
| 13 | Olivier Nkamhoua | F | 6-9 | 235 | 16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG |
| 32 | Tarris Reed | F | 6-10 | 265 | 8.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG |
McDaniel fills a similar pivotal role to Ohio State’s Bruce Thornton for Michigan, serving as both the offense’s top scorer and distributor. He picks up 17.8 points per game and 5.1 assists, the latter number good for third in the Big Ten.
Olivier Nkamhoua
Nkamhoua is McDaniel’s partner in crime when it comes to scoring, racking up 16.9 points per contest. He’s also Michigan’s leading rebounder with 7.6 boards per game.
Terrance Williams II
The most accurate of all the Wolverines’ snipers, Williams hits 41.7% of his attempts from distance. That mark helps him land third on the squad in scoring with 12.6 points per game.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -1, O/U 147
While I see this as a close, high-scoring game on the road for Ohio State – even with Michigan’s struggles – it should be able to build a lead at some point and hold onto it this time against a team that’s lost its last five games in a row. If the Buckeyes don’t, there will no doubt be plenty of negative noise surrounding the squad as January rolls on.
Prediction: Ohio State 82, Michigan 75
