Saturday’s home win over Penn State to snap a three-game losing streak is a start, but if Ohio State truly wants to compete for anything meaningful this season, it will need to start winning games on the road.
Nebraska
Cornhuskers
OSU is in the midst of a 12-game losing streak away from Value City Arena.
The Buckeyes’ first chance to buck that trend comes Tuesday at Nebraska. Few Big Ten environments have been tougher to win in this season than the Cornhuskers’ Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Nebraska is 12-1 at home this season, including a 4-0 home record against conference opponents. Even then-No. 1 Purdue couldn’t knock off the Huskers on their home floor, taking an 88-72 thrashing from the Scarlet and Cream.
“Nebraska is tremendous,” Chris Holtmann said. “Obviously (we have) Northwestern later in the week, both those teams are (NCAA) tournament teams. I know we’ve got three out of four on the road. So important stretch for us, important for us to just focus on getting better here and that’s what we’re doing.”
Need to Know
Shooters everywhere
Only 32 of college basketball’s 362 teams take more threes per game than Nebraska, and only 41 teams make more than the Huskers.
Nebraska is only 126th in the country shooting from three as a team, making 35% of its attempts from beyond the arc. The tough part of defending the Huskers' perimeter, however, is that you never know who the source of triple production is going to be. Six different players on their roster attempt at least three threes per game and four of them shoot 33.3% or better from outside.
“It’s gonna really test us,” Holtmann said. “We’re gonna have to be really on point with our defense. Really on point because they can really shoot it from multiple spots and they are a real challenge to guard.”
Tough to take twos against
Nebraska is 31st nationally in field goal percentage against, allowing opponents to connect on 39.8% of their shots. That’s mostly due to their proficiency defending the interior, as the Huskers are 34th in two-point field goal percentage allowed at 45.1%. They achieve that number despite having no major contributors who stand above 6-10 or average at least one blocked shot per game.
One thing that negates Nebraska’s defensive advantage within the arc is its inability to consistently close possessions on the defensive glass. Teams average 12.1 offensive rebounds per game against the Huskers, the 27th-most allowed by any team in college basketball this season. That and middling perimeter defensive numbers are why Fred Hoiberg’s bunch only ranks 138th in points allowed per 100 possessions, giving up 100.2.
On the verge of breaking a drought
It’s been exactly 10 years since Nebraska made the NCAA Tournament. Hoiberg has consistently improved the squad year after year, taking them from a 7-25 team in his first season in 2019-20 to an even 16-16 record last season. Now at 14-5 with the aforementioned huge win over the Boilermakers, a solid close to the season should deliver the Huskers back to the Big Dance.
Holtmann went a step further than calling them a potential tourney team on Monday.
“They’ve just got a really good team that’s a bona fide tournament team,” Holtmann said. “I don’t think there’s any question.”
Three Important Buckeyes
Jamison Battle
With Nebraska’s two-point defensive numbers, three-point shooting is going to be important for Ohio State to generate offense. After a five-game stretch in which Battle hit at least four threes in every contest and shot 58.1% from outside, he’s been held to 2-of-10 from three across the past two contests as teams have pressed their defenses outward to contain him.
Scotty Middleton
The freshman Middleton will hope to respond after being suspended for the Penn State game for a violation of team rules. He remains Ohio State’s most proficient three-point shooter off the bench, making 40% of his attempts from distance.
“He’s a great kid, got a good approach and a good attitude in practice,” Holtmann said. “I think sometimes the outside world makes a bigger deal of this than what it is.”
Bruce Thornton
Guard play is always pivotal on the road and Thornton will need to have a productive night scoring and passing to push the Buckeyes past the Huskers. He put up just three points on 1-of-9 shooting against Penn State but dished out six assists. Thornton’s slump from three also extended as he’s now 4-of-26 (15.4%) shooting triples in Ohio State’s last four games.
Teams have been hedging Thornton to take away much of his offense around the rim and in the mid-range, Holtmann said.
“It’s neutralized that,” Holtmann said. “(Teams) are just putting two on the ball, so it’s really limited his ability to get downhill. I think we’ve gotta look at some things where maybe we can help him with that, and he’s gotta continue to push the pace in transition. But it has kind of neutralized that, and I think he’s such a strong guard, I think it’s a big reason why he’s getting hedged.”
Three Notable Huskers
Keisei Tominaga
| No. | Player | Position | Height | Weight | 2023-24 Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jamarques Lawrence | G | 6-3 | 183 | 6.1 PPG, 2.6 APG |
| 30 | Keisei Tominaga | G | 6-2 | 179 | 14.5 PPG, 1.1 APG |
| 3 | Brice Williams | G | 6-7 | 213 | 13.3 PPG, 2.7 APG |
| 53 | Josiah Allick | F | 6-8 | 231 | 7.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG |
| 51 | Rienk Mast | F | 6-10 | 248 | 12.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG |
No one takes or makes more threes for the Huskers than Tominaga, their leading scorer at 14.5 points per game. He shoots 38.1% on the season from downtown and remains efficient when he goes inside at 58.1% from two.
Rienk Mast
Nebraska’s 6-foot-10 five-man leads the team in rebounding with 8.4 boards per game and he’s not afraid to space the floor as well. Taking 3.4 threes per game, Mast converts 29.8% of them, landing third on the team in scoring at 12.5 points per contest. With the Huskers’ kick-out style of offense, Mast also leads the team in assists with three per game.
Brice Williams
Nebraska’s second-leading scorer is another threat from the perimeter, shooting 36.8% from three on the season. Williams posts 13.3 points and 2.7 assists per game, both second on the squad.
How It Plays Out
Line: Nebraska -2.5, O/U 149.5
I’ll be honest, I don’t see the Buckeyes winning this one. Nebraska is a solid team that upgrades to be a fantastic team when playing in Pinnacle Bank Arena. Luckily, by avoiding an upset against Penn State on Saturday, Ohio State can afford to have its record drop to 13-6 with what would be a Quadrant 1 loss and not take a huge hit to its NCAA Tournament resume.
If the Buckeyes do win, it will be because their shooters awake from a cold stretch of play – Ohio State has shot 33.3% or worse from three in four games in a row, with back-to-back contests under 20% – and they do enough on defense to limit Nebraska’s three-point proficiency.
Prediction: Nebraska 81, Ohio State 76
