Buckeyetology: Ohio State Widely Projected to Barely Make NCAA Tournament But Can All But Clinch at Indiana Saturday

Dangling along the Big Dance bubble, Ohio State picked up a Quad 1 win on the road despite losing a 14-point halftime lead against USC, then followed it up with a Quad 2 win in a hectic 116-114 double-overtime war with Nebraska on Tuesday.

The Buckeyes have secured a berth in the Big Ten Tournament and could lock up their first NCAA Tournament bid in three years this Saturday or in the conference tourney. Even with the potential for bid-stealers during conference tournament season, Jake Diebler's squad will be well-positioned on Selection Sunday if it closes the season the right way.

NCAA Tournament Outlook

A lot of projections on the Bracket Matrix, including some popular ones like ESPN's Joe Lunardi, haven't been updated to reflect Ohio State's win over Nebraska. Even still, the Buckeyes are projected as in the NCAA Tournament by 114 of the 128 predictors there and picked as getting a bye through the First Four by a lot of those.

Defeating the Huskers this late in the season provided the Buckeyes with a direct leg up on their bubble competition as well. Nebraska is a fellow projected 11 seed in the Bracket Matrix, and is in Jerry Palm's First Four Out for CBS. Palm now has Ohio State in his Last Four In after excluding the Buckeyes from his bubble discussion last week.

The Buckeyes' six Quad 1 victories are tied for the 16th-most in college basketball. Their NET ranking has dipped over the past few weeks, but it remains strong at 36th, thanks to those wins and a strength of schedule that ranks 17th in college basketball. The depth of the Big Ten may have hurt Ohio State's overall record as it handles the rocky road the league leaves, but it has boosted OSU's résumé thanks to its difficulty.

FOX's Mike DeCourcy, who updated his bracket projection Wednesday afternoon, is another who has Ohio State among his last four teams in the NCAA Tournament. Fittingly, Indiana, who the Buckeyes play on the road to close both teams' regular seasons this Saturday, is also in that grouping. It underscores a great chance presented to Diebler and crew this weekend.

By knocking off the Hoosiers for a seventh Quad 1 win, Ohio State can all but clinch a spot in the Big Dance. But on that last four in line of the bubble with bid-stealers still to come, multiple wins might be required in the Big Ten Tournament if the Buckeyes fall in Assembly Hall.

Big Ten Outlook

Ohio State and Indiana aren't just playing for NCAA Tournament bubble positioning, the winner will get a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament while the loser will have to play in the first round.

The top nine teams in the conference each receive a first-round bye and the Buckeyes and Hoosiers are currently tied for the ninth position. Ohio State owns a head-to-head victory over 11th-place Minnesota, so a loss to Indiana guarantees the No. 10 seed, whereas a win guarantees the No. 9 seed.

There are some interesting battles occurring elsewhere in the conference, too. Michigan State can bring itself one step closer to clinching the Big Ten's regular-season title outright with a win at Iowa on Thursday. In that same game, the Hawkeyes will be battling for a Big Ten Tournament bid, as only the top 15 teams in the conference make the tourney and they are tied for 15th place with USC. The Trojans host last-place Washington on Wednesday. Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern and Rutgers are all still in danger of falling to that 16th spot as the final games of their seasons play out.

Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin and UCLA are all battling for the last two of the four double-bye slots atop the conference standings.