Scout recently re-ranked its top 300 recruits, and the news was good for the Buckeyes. Twelve of Ohio State's 2016 recruits were in the top 300, and seven were in the top 100. But there was a surprise; while Ohio State had the top recruiting class in the country, Michigan State was right behind them.
For those who are familiar with Michigan State's recruiting, the idea that it would be a recruiting power is bizarre. Since 2002, when Scout first assigned team recruiting rankings, Michigan State has never finished above 13th. It usually finishes in the 30-50 range, in the middle of the pack in the recruiting-averse Big Ten, and one year it even finished a disastrous 96th. Over the last two years, though, Michigan State has put together top 20 recruiting classes, and unless its 2016 class falls apart, it will land in the top 10 for the first time this February.
This week, Michigan State received commitments from four defensive linemen in four days: Naquan Jones, Mike Panasiuk, Auston Robertson and Josh King. Three of them are in the top 300, and all of them come from out of state. It's the kind of recruiting swing a powerhouse makes, and reason to take the Spartans seriously.
Buckeye fans are supposed to hate Michigan more than any other school, and Jim Harbaugh will likely bring the Wolverines back to national contention. But in the short term, the Wolverines aren't Ohio State's greatest threat; the Spartans are.
It's not hard to see why Michigan State's cachet has grown so large. Across the 2013 and 2014 seasons, it went 24-3 with a Big Ten championship, two major bowl victories and two top-five finishes. MSU has won 10 or more games in four of the last five seasons, and it's likely to repeat in 2015 with a loaded roster.
Michigan State had an excellent offense in 2014, and it returns most of its talent. Connor Cook, one of the best quarterbacks in the country, returns for his senior season a year after throwing for 3,214 yards and 24 touchdowns. So does Jack Allen, MSU's All-America center. Top receivers Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery is gone, but the next three best targets (Aaron Burbidge, Macgarrett Kings Jr., and Josiah Price) return. The only question mark on the offense is at running back, where Delton Williams and Madre London are expected to pound out yardage.
On defense, expect the Spartans to be excellent as usual. Michigan State had to weather many defensive losses in 2014 and still put forth a dominating unit. The defensive line should be particularly fierce, headlined by two-time Second Team All-America defensive end Shilique Calhoun. The back seven takes a hit, losing Taiwan Jones, Trae Waynes and Kurtis Drummond, but RJ Williamson and Ed Davis will be playmakers. Given the Spartans' success at reloading over the last five years, there's reason to think they'll replace those defenders with little trouble.
It's striking how similar Michigan State's position is when compared to Ohio State's position at the start of the 2014 season. With a senior QB at the helm (Cook/Braxton Miller), the Spartans will face an nationally prominent team in Week Two at home (Oregon/Virginia Tech). In the Big Ten East, a few teams pose medium threats (Michigan, Penn State) but the division crown will likely come down to a road game against the defending Big Ten champs. Win that game, and the Big Ten is theirs for the taking.
Beyond 2015, Michigan State's recruiting strategy is dangerous for the Buckeyes. The Spartans are defensive-line heavy in recruiting, and if its blue-chippers develop they cause trouble for Ohio State's offense. Though the Buckeyes have playmakers, their offensive game plan is based around winning the battle at the line of scrimmage; if MSU can stymie OSU at the point of attack, it forces the offense to make adjustments that might not work.
Furthermore, Michigan State's success in recruiting defensive linemen prevents those players from getting to Ohio State. The Spartans won a recruiting battle for high four-star Malik McDowell, and he made an impact as a freshman in 2014. The Buckeyes will lose Adolphus Washington and likely Joey Bosa from the line in 2016, and their greatest team weakness in 2014 was run defense. Larry Johnson is an elite defensive line coach, but if the younger linemen don't step up, the Buckeyes will be hard-pressed to match up with top offenses in succeeding years.
Ohio State will have to fend off other threats from within the Big Ten East. James Franklin can make noise at Penn State, if his hoopla ever translates to on-field success. Michigan has been a sleeping giant for nearly a decade, and it will be a force to be reckoned with in a few years.
Michigan State has three qualities most of the Big Ten's football programs lack: competence, consistency, and competitive recruiting. For the near future, those traits will make Michigan State the most dangerous foe for the Buckeyes.
