In modern college football, quarterbacks are the centerpieces of the team. This is reflected by the Heisman Trophy, for which 13 of the last 14 official winners were quarterbacks. A Buckeye wearing No. 15 will try to buck that trend this fall.
Ezekiel Elliott's brilliant postseason performance made him the immediate frontrunner for the 2015 Heisman Trophy, and he's still the leader five months later. One prominent sportsbook gives Elliott 7/1 odds of winning the Heisman, making him the odds-on favorite.
A few weeks ago, Eleven Warriors' Chris Lauderback asked if Ezekiel Elliott could win the Heisman, focusing on Elliott's strengths. As a natural-born pessimist, I see some flaws with Elliott's campaign; for reasons outside of his control, his campaign may not have much of his chance no matter how well he plays.
Tough Competition
Elliott is still the Heisman favorite, but the gap between him and others has narrowed. His odds have dropped slightly from 6/1, and TCU's Trevone Boykin has the same odds at the moment.
Plenty of other elite players, like Nick Chubb (Georgia), Leonard Fournette (LSU), Cody Kessler (USC) and Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) are immediate contenders. And players can appear from out of nowhere to become contenders; nobody saw Boykin or Prescott finishing in the top 10 of the Heisman voting last year, and there will undoubtedly be defenders or receivers who surprise everyone.
That's without mentioning the potential vote cannibalism from teammates. Braxton Miller and Cardale Jones are close behind at 14/1, and J.T. Barrett is in the mix at 25/1. If Elliott has an award-worthy season, Ohio State's starting quarterback will siphon off votes, just like Miami's Ken Dorsey and Willis McGahee blocked each other from winning the Heisman Trophy in 2002.
Last Year Doesn't Matter
Elliott's campaign will receive a huge publicity boost because he plays for Ohio State, the defending national champions. Playing for Ohio State will certainly help his candidacy, but playing for the defending champs may not.
Elliott will be the BMOC if he wins the 2015 Heisman.
In the last 20 years, players from 14 schools have won the Heisman. All 14 schools are in power conferences, and 11 of those have won multiple national championships. In this regard, Elliott is well-positioned to join Eddie George and Troy Smith as recent Ohio State Heisman winners.
At the same time, Ohio State's 2014 accomplishments aren't nearly as meaningful as what they accomplish this year. Over the last 20 years, 13 of the Heisman winners' teams have played for the national championship the same year they won the trophy. Only four won it the year after their team played for the championship, and none since Tim Tebow in 2007.
It seems strange to dismiss the value of the 2014 national championship, but it has little bearing on next season's individual award voting. If Ohio State slips up at any point this season, Elliott will lose the incumbent advantage.
Pumped Up Numbers
Heisman voters have two basic requirements for candidates: be a running back or quarterback on a good team and have better numbers than the previous year. Elliott will be a major producer if he stays healthy, but he is going to have a hard time putting up better numbers than the year before.
Reggie Bush, the 2005 Heisman winner (whether or not the record books show it), is a good example of the improvement a player needs to show. In his junior season, he squeezed out 750 more rushing yards and four all-purpose touchdowns than the year before.
| YEAR | GAMES | att | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 13 | 143 | 908 | 6.3 | 6 | 43 | 509 | 11.8 | 7 |
| 2005 | 13 | 187 | 1,658 | 8.9 | 15 | 31 | 383 | 12.4 | 2 |
Mark Ingram, the last running back to win the Heisman, is another example of maxing out potential in his award-winning year.
| YEAR | GAMES | att | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 14 | 143 | 728 | 5.1 | 12 | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| 2009 | 14 | 271 | 1,658 | 6.1 | 17 | 32 | 334 | 10.4 | 3 |
In comparison, here are Elliott's impressive numbers from 2014:
| YEAR | GAMES | att | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 15 | 273 | 1878 | 6.9 | 18 | 28 | 220 | 7.9 | 0 |
Elliott's yardage output tops both Bush and Ingram, and his excellent play against Alabama and Oregon won Ohio State the national championship. Great work! Now he has to surpass those totals with better averages in two fewer games, or else he'll be the subject of countless "What's wrong with Ezekiel Elliott?" stories like Jameis Winston was in 2014. It's not fair, but he'll have to be far and away the top running back in the country to have a shot at a Heisman.
Can He Carry the Offense?
One of the obstacles to Zeke's Heisman campaign is something he doesn't have control over: the structure of the Buckeye offense.
Urban Meyer's offenses are predicated on an option game, with the quarterback being a running threat. Four of his quarterbacks over the years (Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett) earned Heisman consideration because of their running ability, and whoever wins the starting job for the Buckeyes will provide more of the same. This spells trouble for Elliott.
Elliott's 1,878 rushing yards accounted for 47.3 percent of Ohio State's ground offense in 2014. If he were to win the Heisman, it would be the lowest percentage for a running back since 1983, when Nebraska's Mike Rozier ran for 2,148 yards and 29 touchdowns in a run-heavy offense.
It's safe to assume Ohio State's quarterbacks will rush for 1,000 yards this fall. With Curtis Samuel, Jalin Marshall, Dontre Wilson and others to share carries, Elliott may account a lesser share of the running game in 2015. Given college football's shift toward the passing game over the last few decades, will Elliott be seen as an irreplaceable asset for the Buckeyes or just another cog in the wheel?
Throwing cold water on the Ezekiel Elliott Heisman campaign is not fun, but it's helpful to keep perspective about the challenges to it. Keep those obstacles in mind when singing his praises, and the end result will be all the sweeter if he wins it.
