A week after surviving the Minnesota Golden Dilly Bars, Urban Meyer's Buckeyes head to Champaign for a late morning kick against the Illinois Fighting Illini.
J.T. Barrett is back in the saddle as Ohio State looks to get past one last hurdle before the real stretch run of Michigan State, at Michigan, and hopefully a B1G championship appearance as a prelude to the College Football Playoff.
In prep for Saturday's tilt against the Illini, we welcome Birm, Mike and Vico to the latest and greatest episode of the 11W roundtable.
J.T. Barrett will be back as Ohio State’s starting quarterback after serving his one game suspension. What kind of afternoon should we expect from Barrett as the Buckeyes look to improve to 10-0?
Mike: Barrett will probably have a typical day for Ohio State quarterbacks in Champaign, Illinois. I hope his weenie arm will be strong enough to cut through the wind but Buckeye QBs always struggle there. OSU put up 60 points last time they played at Memorial Stadium but Braxton Miller only threw for 150 yards and completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes. He also ran for 184 yards so whatever he did through the air was inconsequential. Essentially, that's what I expect from Barrett. Unimpressive throwing – maybe Mike Thomas breaks a quick slant for a big gain – but he'll tear up the Illini on the ground for several big gains as he tends to do.
Birm: I think it’s reasonable to expect a bit of a rocky morning/afternoon for Barrett and the entire Ohio State offense. Yes, the team seems to have more cohesion when JT is taking the snaps but the back and forth between quarterbacks clearly has a bigger impact on continuity than we wanted to believe. However, early weather reports indicate 55 and sunny on Saturday so there is some hope that the Wind Tunnel won’t have quite as much impact as it has in years past. JT is JT, he’ll be ready and calm and the Buckeyes will take a series or two to get started before finding their rhythm.
Vico: I would expect something fairly similar to the Rutgers' performance, though with more success on the ground than through the air. Memorial Stadium can be a wind tunnel and Illinois is a full 100 yards a game better in pass defense. I expect Barrett will have more a presence in the option component to Ohio State's offense.
Braxton Miller ranks third on the team with 20 receptions for 325 yards (16.3 ypc) with another 218 yards rushing on 35 attempts (6.23 ypc). How do those numbers reconcile against your preseason expectations? What kind of factor can Miller be down the stretch? Finally, have we seen the last of the wildcat?
Vico: I doubt we've seen the last of the wildcat because the coaching staff wants it to work. It, on occasion, does even if Braxton Miller is not a credible threat to throw and is somehow even less a credible threat to make a read on an option wrinkle to the formation.
I will say Miller exceeded my expectations. I thought he'd be somewhat one-dimensional or could not reliably make important catches to stretch a defense. I think the team still wants a receiver who could do that (like Devin Smith could last year), but Miller is helping.
Mike: Before the season, I set the bar for Braxton pretty low. He never played receiver before and to learn it at the Division I level with only a few months of practice seemed unlikely. Plus, he had to – at that time – vault several talented receivers ahead of him on the depth chart. Clearly I underestimated his work ethic. He's doing a great job blocking on the perimeter, which is one of his most important aspects to playing receiver at Ohio State. Obviously he's not a polished route runner but he's well ahead of where anyone thought he'd be at this point. Assuming he fully recovers from the injury he suffered against Minnesota, he'll continue to be a dangerous weapon in the passing game and, hopefully, see more targets downfield. I don't expect the wildcat to go away but I wish it would.
Birm: I think like most people I thought Braxton would be a bigger part of the offense than he has been, but that’s more of an indictment on the inconsistency the entire unit has had more so than a shot at his productivity. As a wide receiver, a complete wide receiver, he’s actually exceeded my expectations because he’s proven to be more than capable as a route-runner, pass-catcher and blocker, which were question marks heading into the year. As the wide receiver group continues to be decimated by injuries – Braxton’s own included – it becomes vital for him to get more involved in the passing game because good teams are going to be able to take away Mike Thomas without sacrificing too much of their run-stuffing motives.
The wildcat? Please kill it. Kill it dead.
Joey Bosa and Vonn Bell stole the show last week against Minnesota but I think Raekwon McMillan quietly had a heck of a game with nine tackles, a pass breakup and a quarterback hurry. How would you assess McMillan’s season to date? How close is he to his ceiling? Or said differently, where does he still need to improve?
Birm: If there’s one thing I think Raekwon can still get better doing, it’s filling a running lane just a hair more quickly. He’s one of the country’s leading tacklers but far too often he’s not the one initiating the contact and is more or less getting run in to than delivering a hit. Maybe that’s a byproduct of the defense and a conscientious effort to not miss, therefore exposing the safeties behind him, but that’s about my only complaint with how he’s played. He’s a future captain and a like early NFL entrant, so it’s hard to complain too much about a guy who’s made 9 career starts.
Vico: Raekwon McMillan is third in the league in tackles, though the two guys ahead of him either 1) play for Rutgers or 2) is a defensive back for Illinois. Put another way, McMillan is probably winning whatever hyphenated trophy the league has for best linebacker. The fact McMillan is a true sophomore suggests he'll hit his ceiling next year as a possible early entrant into the 2017 NFL Draft. He should be really good.
Mike: McMillan is 19 tackles clear of Joshua Perry for the team lead in tackles. That tells you all you need to know about McMillan's season to date. Luke Fickell puts a lot of responsibility on the middle linebacker in this defense. Despite the scheme changes coverage wise, McMillan is still vital in defending the run. I think he needs to be more consistent in maintaining his gap integrity but that's an issue plaguing multiple members of the defense.
Illinois comes into the game boasting the league’s fifth-best passing attack at 240 yards per game while the Buckeyes currently sit third in pass defense giving up 164 yards per game so something has to give. How will Ohio State’s secondary fare in slowing down QB Wes Lunt and his top receiver, Geronimo Allison, who ranks third in the league with 56 receptions?
Mike: Since Ohio State's offense will probably dominate on the ground, Illinois' offense will not see the field much and will be playing from behind. So, Wes Lunt will be throwing a lot. As of two weeks ago, the Eli Apple-Gareon Conley duo allowed opposing QBs to complete only 32.8 percent of their passes. Ohio State's secondary had an issue containing K.J. Maye on a couple plays last week, but, overall, did a solid job against a much-improved Mitch Leidner. I expect the same this week, maybe a similar, late offensive surge will make Lunt's stats look better.
Vico: Illinois ranks fifth in the league in passing but that comes with qualifiers. One, I'm not sure any other receiving corp in the league drops as many passes as Illinois does. The Illini had 21 drops through the first three games of the season alone. Put another way, Illinois tends to stop itself. I doubt Ohio State does anything it hasn't done to date to try to stop Illinois' passing attack.
Birm: Ohio State’s pass defense is bolstered by their pass rush, so – and admittedly I’ve not watched much of Lunt this year – it really is more about how quickly Joey Bosa, Sam Hubbard, Adolphus Washington and Tyquan Lewis force him to get rid of the ball. There’s no one on Illinois’ roster that is going to scare the Buckeyes’ defensive coaches enough that any special scheming is necessary to stop them. Go out, be physical, don’t take too many dumb risks and let the talent win the match ups.
Fans and media alike always talk about Urban’s greatness, and rightfully so, but don’t often talk as much about the assistant coaches unless it’s with angst. Which Meyer assistant has done the best job this year? Support your choice.
Birm: The job done by Chris Ash since his arrival at Ohio State, including this year, can’t be overlooked. He and Kerry Coombs have turned the secondary, which was a liability two years ago, into one of the team’s strengths and have done despite a rash of injuries and challenges. I think, as a whole, the entire coaching staff has done a great job keeping the team focused with all the potential distractions and they all deserve kudos, but the change in mentality on the defensive side of the ball in the last year is worth special applause.
Mike: Considering the injuries and trying to develop Braxton Miller at a new position, Zach Smith really stands out to me on Meyer's staff. Michael Thomas will be a first or second round pick and is blossoming under the tutelage of Smith. Yes, they still miss Devin Smith's big play ability but there's not a healthy receiver capable of replicating what Smith brought last year. Plus, Miller, Jalin Marshall and Curtis Samuel all caught deep passes over the past two games. So, the "deep threat" isn't as big an issue as it was earlier in the season. As Meyer would tell you, perimeter blocking is important at Ohio State. Thomas, Miller and, especially, Marshall are excelling in that area now. Another credit to Smith's coaching.
Vico: Probably Kerry Coombs. Eli Apple and Gareon Conley have done well at the cornerback position, Conley especially as a first-year starter, to give Ohio State the third-best passing defense in the Big Ten.
If you’re freedom rode on Illinois winning one do-or-die game against Urban Meyer which former Illini head coach would you absolutely NOT tab to lead you to the promised land and why? Your selections include Bill Cubit, Tim Beckman, Ron Zook, Ron Turner and Lou Tepper.
Vico: The easy answer might be Tim Beckman, under whom Illinois was outscored by 96 points in three games and three losses against the Buckeyes. However, I'll go with Ron Turner. Turner has two wins at Columbus near the end of the John Cooper era (1999) and start of the Jim Tressel era (2001). However, his other lowlights against Ohio State include a 41-15 loss in a winless season in 1997, a 41-0 loss in Champaign in 1998, a 24-21 loss in 2000, and the classic 23-16 overtime loss in 2002. No Illinois coach wet the bed quite like him in a big setting. However, if you want Illinois to actually beat Ohio State, you gotta go with Lou Tepper. Tepper was at least 2-3 against Ohio State. Only the 48-0 home loss to the Buckeyes in his final season (a 2-9 season) stands out from his record. The 1994 win was a big one.
Birm: As far as I know, Tim Beckman is the only one of those coaches to not deliver a win against the Buckeyes, so I’d have to pick the Meyer’s jettisoned former protege. Cubit seems to have the program heading in a positive direction and he’ll have them fired up for Saturday.
Mike: Recent allegations against Tim Beckman revealed this story: he reportedly told the team, during spring break in 2014, “I don’t care if you’re hurt, everyone is practicing when we get back. No one cares if you’re hurt. I don’t care. Your family may care. Northwestern doesn’t care." I'll assume his strategy to motivate players to risk further injury by participating inspring practice anyway failed. "Nothing fires me up more than thinking about my mother crying and a noon kickoff in a late November game on a BTN alternate channel against a barely bowl eligible Northwestern! Yes! I'll run through that wall for you, coach!" Those Knute Rockne-esque motivational tactics make Beckman the clear choice.
If you had the Illibuck in your possession for 24 hours what would you do with it?
Mike: I actually ran into the guy who had Illibuck last year. Saw him walking around Ohio Stadium with it right before the game against Illinois. Everybody he passed – including me – asked him to stop and hand it over so they could take a picture with it. He was cool about it but I wouldn't be as nice. People harassing me for a picture would get tiresome quickly, so I'd probably be done with the trophy after an hour and then throw it in a dumpster somewhere. Besides, there are nine other Illibucks floating around out there so no one would miss it.
Birm: I’d take the Illibuck out for a nice seafood dinner and then never call it again.
Vico: It would probably be a de facto footrest on my coffee table. I don't live an exciting life.
The Buckeyes have won 10 straight in Champaign since losing a 10-7 game back in 1991 and have prevailed in 15 of the last 18 meetings overall but strange things seem to happen in this series. Should we be worried about any such shenanigans this year? Will the Buckeyes cover the 17-point spread? Who is your game MVP?
Vico: I keep betting against Ohio State to cover because I'm right more than I'm wrong this year. I'll go 35-20 Ohio State. Ezekiel Elliott picks up game MVP honors.
Mike: The talent disparity and Barrett's return leads me to believe this game won't be close. I fully expect the Buckeyes to cover the spread and think Barrett will have a huge game on the ground. He'll break a few long runs against an overly-aggressive Illini defense and maybe one big play through the air in an otherwise pedestrian passing performance. Still it's enough for Barrett to earn my hypothetical MVP, and OSU wins 38-14.
Birm: It's an 11:00 a.m. game time for a team that has played three straight 8:00 p.m. games and yeah, there’s a little concern about maybe a little early game lethargy turning into a weird afternoon in Illinois, I won’t lie. Still, I think the Buckeyes are too experienced and too veteran to allow themselves to get tripped up by a team that should not be on their level. Saturdayis a get right game that will go a long ways towards revealing who the team truly is as the meat of the schedule descends upon us.
Ohio State 38, Illinois 17, JT Barrett will account for four touchdowns and be your MVP.
