Preview: No. 3 Ohio State at Illinois

By Eric Seger on November 13, 2015 at 8:35 am
Your Ohio State-Illinois preview.
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Bill Cubit entered his office, thinking the day set as a typical Friday during Illinois fall football camp, the final Friday before the 2015 season opener.

Little did he know, when he went home to his wife, Nancy, that night, he'd be given a promotion and named interim head coach of the football program.

"I was having breakfast with my wife at a local restaurant over there and this came up. Very unique circumstances," Cubit said Aug. 28, the day Illinois fired Tim Beckman and named him interim boss. "I have a lot of respect for Tim, but the bottom line is its all about the student-athletes."

Cubit served as Beckman's offensive coordinator starting in 2013, heading to Champaign after going 51-47 in eight seasons as the head coach of the Western Michigan Broncos. Illinois ousted Beckman due to his improper treatment of players, centered around accusations from those no longer with the program that he'd encouraged them to play through injuries as opposed to remaining on the sidelines and concerned with their well-being.

Monday morning, the guy who hired Beckman, athletic director Mike Thomas, was let go by the university after details from the school's internal investigation into the allegations were released. Thomas appointed Cubit to interim head coach in August.

"I guess I've been in this business so long, you just take a step back. Mike, just like everybody else around here, has been really good to me," Cubit said Monday, according to the team's official site. "I cannot, in three years here, say that I've had one bad experience with anybody here and of course Mike was a part of that."

Illinois Fighting Illini
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
5-4, 2-3 B1G
ROSTER SCHEDULE

12:00 PM – SATURDAY, NOV. 14
MEMORIAL STADIUM
CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS

ABC/ESPN2
WATCHESPN
 

On top of it all, Illinois has an interim chancellor, too, Barbara Wilson. Pretty much everyone near the top of the administration has an interim tag, save for President Timothy Killeen, who's been described as someone who doesn't fully understand the importance of athletics.

Treacherous waters to wade for anyone, but Saturday, Cubit is tasked with the responsibility of readying his football team to welcome the defending national champions of college football to Memorial Stadium. Ohio State is undefeated and the third best team in the country in the eyes of College Football Playoff committee, with a 29-game regular season Big Ten winning streak and 22-game mark overall.

"They're real good. They've got great talent, they do a good job coaching and their schemes are fantastic. There's a reason why they're ranked No. 1 in a lot of polls," Cubit said. "They're an outstanding football team."

Illinois earned its second 2015 Big Ten victory with a 48-14 drubbing of lowly Purdue in West Lafayette, Indiana, enough to catch the eye of Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes have their two biggest games ahead of them next — Michigan State and Michigan — following a trip west, but can ill afford a misstep to stay in the driver's seat for the Big Ten East Division crown and keep the massive winning hauls alive.

"There is so much to be done and what, does that make a kid play harder?" Meyer said Monday regarding the win streaks. "I think it just complicates things a little bit more as opposed to finding a way to beat Illinois, the best play, the best you can. I really don't have conversations about that."

With an early kickoff Saturday following Ohio State's fourth night game in five weeks, Meyer isn't about to spend time worrying about what's on the line. He just wants to prepare his team as best he can in order to defeat Illinois.

"I think we have a fairly mature team, so letdown probably isn't the appropriate word. Execution and doing the right things," Meyer said Wednesday. "Just the grind that's involved in college football right now. I don't think there's a chance of a letdown. Just executing and playing well."

opponent breakdown

The Illini enter Saturday's contest with the Buckeyes fresh off its best performance of the season, the aforementioned 48-14 clubbing of the Boilermakers on the road.

"Obviously, what they did last week kind of opened up everyone's eyes," Meyer said. "Almost 600 yards of offense."

Cubit and Illinois welcomed back senior running back Josh Ferguson, who missed three games with a shoulder injury he suffered in a 14-13 victory against Nebraska. That win is Illinois' other Big Ten triumph outside of the Purdue whipping, with out of conference victories coming against Kent State, Western Illinois and Middle Tennessee State. Hardly murder's row, but the Fighting Illini have a few skill players who can hurt anyone.

2015 STATISTICAL COMPARISON (H/T REMY)
Ohio State
     
Illinois
2015 STATS RANK CATEGORY 2015 STATS RANK
37.3 20th Points For 25.8 91st
15.0 6th Points Against 21.7 33rd
    OFFENSE    
240.6 12th Rushing Offense 144.3 98th
214.2 78th Passing Offense 240.0 49th
454.8 32nd Total Offense 384.3 78th
    DEFENSE    
138.7 33rd Rushing Defense 139.4 34th
163.9 5th Pass Defense 202.4 43rd
302.6 13th Total Defense 341.9 31st
    OFF. MISC.    
.395 67th 3rd Down Conv. .362 97th
.789 98th Red Zone .750 112th
12.7 23rd Punt Return 11.1 37th
23.4 30th Kickoff Return 20.5 81st
    DEF. MISC.    
.322 26th 3rd Down Conv. .291 6th
.810 40th Red Zone .857 83rd
101.1 9th Pass Eff. Def. 113.1 25th
40.8 10th Net Punting 32.7 123rd
    MISC.    
- 0.1 79th Turnover Margin + 0.6 24th
6.2 67th Penalties Per Game 6.2 67th
  Total: 15 THE EDGE Total: 4  

"You tell the guys to turn on the tape and actually watch it," senior linebacker Joshua Perry said Wednesday. "Then you see that Illinois is a team that has some really good players and they do some things really well."

Ferguson rushed for 133 yards and 12 carries against Purdue last weekend, but the day on the ground belonged to true freshman Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Vaughn became the main rushing option with Ferguson sidelined and he torched the Boilermakers for 180 yards on 16 carries and two touchdowns. Entering the game, Illinois owned the worst rushing offense in the conference. A total of 382 rushing yards later, it now sits 11th.

"I think you can look at what Josh Ferguson means to this football team, not that we're going to get that great of a performance every single week, but I just thought our kids were energized, and we just really liked what we saw," Cubit said.

The offense, however, starts and stops with redshirt junior quarterback Wes Lunt, who transferred to Illinois from Oklahoma State prior to the 2013 season. Lunt played sparingly last season and finished the year with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. He did not, however, play in his team's 55-14 loss at Ohio Stadium last November.

Now, it is solely his show.

"They’re more of a passing team, definitely," defensive end Joey Bosa said. "I think it was, they’re throwing it over 40 times a game so I think we’re working more pass this week."

Lunt's thrown the ball at least 40 times in five of his team's nine games this season and been relatively efficient doing so. His 55.8 percent completion percentage doesn't shine all that bright, but the 2,000 passing yards are good enough for fifth in the Big Ten. He's also tossed 12 touchdowns against only four interceptions.

"He throws the ball really well. That's what you see," Perry said. "You see also what he's able to do in terms of making some of those checks when he sees something he likes and he can get the ball in the running back's hands, too. That's really impressive because a lot of times guys just go with what's called."

Lunt's favorite target is senior Geronimo Allison, a junior college transfer who easily leads the team with 56 receptions and 756 yards. He's tied for the team-lead with three touchdowns.

"(Lunt's) got pretty good chemistry with (Allison)," Perry said. "We're going to have to find ways to stop him, No. 8."

Illinois chucks the ball around often, relying heavily on Lunt to make the right decisions at the line and get the ball out of his hands quickly and into those of his playmakers. Ferguson can be deadly in the throw game, too, and has scored twice this season through the air. He is potentially the best kept secret in the Big Ten, with the versatility to hurt defenses in all facets.

"Guys that are hungry when they get the ball, their running backs. They're just really hard runners. You see a lot of that," Perry said. "You see that people are worried about the passing threats, so it kind of opens up the lanes for them."

Ferguson
Ferguson is a versatile threat.

Defensively, Illinois resides near the middle of the conference in total defense (eighth), passing defense (eighth) and rushing defense (seventh). But odd things seem to happen to Ohio State when it visits the wind tunnel that is Memorial Stadium, save for its most recent victory there, a 60-35 final in 2013.

Even then, that was a 12-point game with just under nine minutes remaining before Carlos Hyde scored his fourth and fifth touchdowns of the day on 51- and 55-yard jaunts.

"The wind you have to be aware of a lot of times in the kicking game. Sky kicks, those types of things," Meyer said. "Obviously it gets in the way of throwing the ball, but we've done our research for this game and it should be fine. I check that every day leading up to the game and it certainly does impact the game plan."

Illinois' best defensive player is safety Clayton Fejedelem, who sits sixth in the country with 100 total tackles. He also has two interceptions this season and recovered a blocked punt in the end zone for a score against Middle Tennessee State Sept. 26.

"They're big up front. They're much better than they were a year ago. They have a safety that I think is (sixth) in the nation in tackles," Meyer said. "They do a really good job of scheming him. They're going to force us to throw the ball over the top."

Four of the team's top seven tacklers are defensive backs, including V'Angelo Bentley, who returns punts and kicks and sometimes even lines up on offense. Also, he's a pretty cool dude.

Meyer also noted a pair of Illini defensive linemen, senior end Jihad Ward and junior tackle Rob Bain for their size. Ohio State's offensive linemen will be tested by them when it tries to run the ball with Ezekiel Elliott, the Big Ten's leading rusher.

"Very similar to our defense and style, 4-3, quarters press. They challenge every throw. Real big," Meyer said. "There's a 290-pound defensive end, No. 17 and a couple big 300-pound guys inside."

Cubit's crew has a difficult task in front of it, but is not mathematically eliminated from winning the Big Ten West Division as it stands right now. Iowa is comfortably out front with a perfect 5-0 mark in conference play, but if the Hawkeyes lose out and the Illini can somehow pull an upset Saturday and then beat Minnesota and Northwestern, it'd win the crown.

It's a long shot, but stranger things have happened. Amid a season of off-field turmoil within and on the outside of the athletic department, Cubit is yearning his players to focus on the task at hand: the 2014 national champions.

"You've got to get them back to Ohio State. You're going to put on that film and there are a lot of All-Americans, draft picks running around. How are you going to handle it?" Cubit said. "You still have to play the game. Let's just go play. We'll battle. We'll fight."

Ohio State Breakdown

The Buckeyes get the services of redshirt sophomore quarterback J.T. Barrett Saturday, with his one-game suspension for an OVI citation expired. Barrett pled guilty Tuesday in front of a Franklin County judge, who fined him $400, suspended his driver's license for 180 days and directed the quarterback to a three-day alcohol education program.

"I apologize to the Ohio State football program and Buckeye Nation," Barrett said in court.

Yet again, he's got a chance to firmly grasp the reins of the Ohio State offense for good.

"J.T.'s a unique guy that's an extreme competitor and a very focused guy. It's not like, 'Boy he's working much harder this week than he was,'" Meyer said. "He's a professional that's going to work and playing quarterback at Ohio State."

Meyer added that Barrett's looked "sharp" this week in practice in place of Cardale Jones, who accounted for more than 250 yards and two touchdowns in last week's 28-14 home win over Minnesota.

The game wasn't the most exciting or impressive display of football by Ohio State, but it was a victory nonetheless. That's all that was needed while Barrett sat in the press box and watched.

Saturday against Illinois presents an opportunity for the offense to get back clicking the way it was prior to the bye week in a 49-7 wasting of Rutgers, when Barrett tallied five total touchdowns. He's just a better threat with his feet than Jones and an excellent decision-maker in the read-option running game. He was rounding to form prior to his suspension.

Barrett
Barrett returns to the lineup Saturday.

"He reads the read-option really well," Taylor Decker said of Barrett. "He pulls it when he needs to, he gives it when he needs to. We've seen in the red zone, where they want to take away Zeke, J.T. scores."

Barrett is set to get some much needed help on the outside back, too, as Meyer said wide receiver Parris Campbell is probable after battling a knee sprain for a month. Meyer made a change at placekicker this week, pulling out graduate senior Jack Willoughby in favor of sophomore Sean Nuernberger. Willoughby remains the guy taking care of kickoff duties.

"Obviously when you're struggling at something, you have to evaluate it," Meyer said. "(Nuernberger's) kept his head in the game and he's a good person. He wants to do well. He works real hard at his skill and it's good to see. I love when guys keep battling and battling and he's back in it. Back in the saddle, we'll see what happens."

Illinois represents the final tune-up for the Buckeyes before their toughest two-game stretch of the regular season, fittingly in the final two outings of the year against Michigan State next weekend and at Michigan Nov. 28. Meyer knows the Buckeyes must be ready from the get go Saturday for an early start, or they could find themselves in a battle with a pesky Illinois squad.

"A lot of times, it's survival. This time of the year, you're 10 weeks into it, we're just trying to ... I think it's good water cooler talk that 'we're trying to defend this and this,' no. We're just trying to get healthy and get ready to go on Saturdays," Meyer said. "Every week, just watch college football. How did that team beat that team? How did that team lose to that team? I think on the outside, there's a lot of conversations, on the inside, it's survival."

How It Plays Out

Top to bottom, Ohio State holds an advantage at just about every single position against Illinois. Cubit's done an honorable job keeping his players engaged and the season afloat with more and more distress coming down from above in the athletic department, but Meyer's crew seems ready to take care of business in an early kickoff before focusing on the Michigan schools.

"I personally don’t like waiting around all day to play night games," Bosa said. "They’re fun, the atmosphere is great, but I’d rather get out there because the anticipation of laying around and waiting to play all day, I don’t like it."

Added middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan: "We have to worry about what’s right now and what’s coming at this time. If we worry about what’s coming two weeks from now, we’re not focused on what’s coming up right now and we won’t be mentally or physically ready for them."

It is another audition for Ohio State in front of the College Football Playoff committee, and an underwhelming performance even with Barrett back at quarterback could result in a drop in the rankings.

Though Memorial Stadium is eerie and Illinois can rack up points against most teams, its struggled against better defenses this year — Penn State posted a 39-0 shutout on Halloween.

The Buckeyes should take care of business with the battery of Elliott and Barrett on the ground, and the sophomore quarterback could be in for a huge day in his return to the lineup.


ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 41, Illinois 16

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