In (roughly) four hours, Ohio State will very likely know which team it will play in the national semifinal bowl game.
They will have reached that position despite not having played in the championship game for the Big Ten conference, and in fact actually lost to the eventual winner of said conference (who is now, ironically, praying that win over Ohio State is enough to put them ahead of another conference winner).
You're all aware of this, but there are a couple of important things to point out here:
- It's really, really funny that the Buckeyes are in this position
- Everyone else (save Penn State fans, understandably) also thinks that it's funny, but they're not allowed to say so
- There is no reason at all for Ohio State to ever attempt to play in the Big Ten title game ever again, and in fact should take pains to make sure that doesn't happen in future years
I'll address these points in order.
THIS IS REALLY, REALLY FUNNY
My senior year at Ohio State as an undergrad was in 2006-2007, and I got to watch the Buckeyes lose two national title games to Florida in two different sports within about a four month period. Then, as I started grad school at Ohio State shortly after undergrad, I spent my last game in Ohio Stadium as a student watching my favorite team in the world lose to Illinois and cement a nervous tic that resurfaces every time I see or hear a mention of the name "J Leman."
Anyway, the saving grace of all of that is that toward the end of the 2007 college football season, every team not named LSU or Ohio State simultaneously exploded in a ball of white-hot incompetence, and the Buckeyes found themselves backing into another national title game.
Which they lost, but that's beside the point! Ohio State spit in the face of logic and reason and still came out smelling like a rose. It's a certain kind of unfair logic based on a transitive property of college football that should not exist. I had thought that the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game would forever remove the possibility of this kind of insanity ever happening again, but apparently not because Ohio State once again has seemingly benefited from other teams looking like butt.
And not even recently! Like three months ago! And the team that looked like butt beat Ohio State after they had looked like butt! And they still might not make the playoff while Ohio State likely will! What a country.
EVERYONE ELSE KNOWS IT'S FUNNY
In the aftermath of Penn State's victory last night, here's what ESPNs Mark Schlabach had to say about the College Football Playoff rankings:
Over the past two months, though, it's not hard to argue that Penn State is playing as well as anyone outside of Alabama.
...
It's up the committee, and its decision won't be easy. If conference championships and head-to-head results really matter, Penn State should be picked ahead of Ohio State. And if conference titles are that important, Clemson and Washington can't be left out so the Buckeyes can be included.
Overall, for about 500 or so words, Schlabach gives a pretty ringing endorsement for not only Penn State being in the Playoff, but also to get in ahead of Ohio State. He mentions some pretty obvious points like the head to head game that the teams played, Penn State playing lights out since basically the beginning of October, and of course a conference championship over a top 10 opponent. Then he lists his top four.
I'll skip to the relevant part.
2. Ohio State: The Buckeyes could only watch as Penn State and Wisconsin played for the Big Ten championship. But it might have been the best thing for them as they rested and didn't risk a second loss. ...
What happened, Mark? Don't the Nittany Lions deserve to be in the top four? You know, for all the reasons you listed? Wait... you listed them at six? Huh.
Okay, let's move on. CBS Sports got their brain trust together and tried to make heads or tails of this argument, and came to the conclusion that while Ohio State had a great season, Penn State just accomplished too much at the end of the year to be discounted. To wit:
And did we mention that Penn State won the Big Ten championship? That's the very same conference that is home to Ohio State. In fact, Penn State had the opportunity to play for the Big Ten title because it won the very same division it shares with Ohio State. It just seems somewhat illogical that a team that couldn't win its own conference should be allowed to play for a national title over the team that did.
"Yeah, that'd be stupid!" said less than half of the panel of experts that CBS Sports gathered to ask about this, because five of the nine of them put Ohio State in the playoff anyway. It's almost as if pretending that there's any sort of consistent criteria for figuring this thing out is a total waste of time and energy and it's really just more about who people think "looks good."
Speaking of which...
OHIO STATE SHOULD AVOID THE BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME LIKE THE PLAGUE
Urban Meyer has been to the Big Ten title game twice. And yes, that one time it worked out really well, but the other time it didn't. An extra game is an opportunity for an extra loss. Frankly, I'm not willing to risk a promising, possibly national championship-winning season on a coin flip like that, so here's my proposal:
Meyer has averaged (as of this writing) exactly one loss per year as coach at Ohio State. There is no reason to think that this trend wouldn't continue, and therefore he can start to get a little creative and a little more intelligent about which game to strategically drop in a given year. As long as his Ohio State teams lose one (and only one) Big Ten game, they'll still be in contention for the Playoff while also hopefully avoiding an unnecessary final game in Indianapolis.
In 2017, for example, I recommend that the Buckeyes lose to Penn State again. While you're taking a risk of losing in late October, by then they'll know the shape of the Big Ten race and who to lose to, plus a couple of good road games to bring up their ranking.
2018 is trickier, but losing to Rutgers in the second game of the season gives Ohio State a lot of flexibility to lose another time if needed, and following week loss to TCU might help with some eventual tiebreakers.
By the time 2019 rolls around, Nebraska in late September and Michigan State the following week will be a godsend. Just pick the team who looks decent at that point in the year and shank a last-minute field goal or something.
Overall, the point is to look good and not have to get our hands messy while doing it. Strategic losing will help.
Jokes aside, I genuinely feel bad for Penn State fans (in this one very narrow instance). If you beat a team head to head and then win the conference that you're both a part of, it's hard to deny that you have a pretty persuasive argument for being better than said team and should be included in playoff talk.
They probably won't be, because they made the crucial mistake of playing an extra, ultimately meaningless game while Ohio State relaxed in a jumbo sized leather couch stuffed with every AP Poll ballot since October 23rd. It's an issue that the playoff committee is going to have to address and have a stated policy for, and soon.
But not too soon. Because Ohio State looks headed for glory.
