Ohio State has the country's No. 18 passing defense. It'll be put to the test against the country's No. 19 passing offense.
The Trojans have a lot of superlatives that propeled them to the Pac-12 championship and the Cotton Bowl but the passing attack stands out. USC is in the top 25 in every indicator of passing quality across all teams in college football. Sam Darnold, who captains this passing offense, is a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft unless he objects that much to playing in Cleveland.
Today's Inside the Box will pour over some of these statistics to highlight the important takeaways in advance of the Cotton Bowl in three weeks.
USC Put Up Passing Yards Against Almost Everyone
USC averaged 294.8 passing yards per game, good for 19th best in the country. More impressive, it reliably surpassed the opponent's average passing yards conceded per game in 10 of 13 contests.
Only California, Washington State, and Arizona State held USC's passing offense below the average yards its pass defense conceded in a given game. However, only one of those teams (Washington State) beat the Trojans.
USC is going to get its passing yards against Ohio State.
Further, Arizona State lost that encounter by 31 points largely because of USC's 341 rushing yards, including 216 for Ronald Jones II. Sam Darnold did not need to churn out passing yards for USC to sail to an easy win in Tempe.
Do note that not only does USC surpass the opposing pass defense's typical output, but does so comfortably. USC played Stanford twice, besting Stanford's average passing yards conceded by almost 100 yards in both games.
It incinerated both Texas and Utah in those home wins. Texas is understandable; the Longhorns finished No. 108 in the country in passing defense. The effort against the Utes is more impressive. Utah was a slightly above average passing defense, finishing No. 54 in the country.
We even observe USC's ability to put up passing yards against opposing defenses in the Notre Dame loss. No one would say that was Sam Darnold's best game but USC lost that game independent of him or the passing offense. USC's inability to stop Notre Dame's ground game was critical there.
Ohio State's pass defense has seen better passing attacks than USC (i.e. Oklahoma). Even then, the performance against the Sooners and the statistics here should give some pause to Ohio State fans who expect to stop Sam Darnold. The Trojans are likely going to have some success against the Buckeyes' pass defense.
The Trojans Get Passing Yards in Chunks
Ohio State played the No. 1 team in the country in passing yards per attempt (Oklahoma). It didn't go well. On the 29th, it'll face the No. 15 team in the country in passing yards per attempt.
USC averages 8.6 yards every time it throws the ball. Again, only California and Washington State truly held the Trojans' passing offense in check earlier in the season. Only one of those teams (Washington State) actually beat USC.
USC's passing offense gets yards in chunks, especially late in the season.
Ohio State fans should be concerned about one trend in particular. The Trojans appear to be improving in its ability to get passing yards in chunks. Observe the trend after the Notre Dame loss. USC bested Arizona State's average by about .1 yards per attempt, effectively a statistical tie.
Thereafter, USC put up 12 yards per every passing attempt against an Arizona passing defense that conceded only 7.6 yards per attempt on average. In the next game, it averaged 9.7 yards per attempt against a Colorado defense that conceded just 7.3 yards per attempt through all 2017. It did similar damage against UCLA as well.
It saved its best for last against a familiar foe. Stanford was the one bright spot for a USC passing offense that struggled to get out the gate. In Round 2, Sam Darnold and the Trojans had a season-best 13.5 yards per attempt against a Cardinal pass defense that averaged 7.6 yards per attempt.
This doesn't bode well for an Ohio State defense that conceded 11 yards per attempt against Baker Mayfield in Week 2.
USC's Passing Offense Is Not Without Flaws
USC's passing offense will be the second-best passing offense the Buckeyes will play in 2017. Ohio State fans should expect some big moments for the USC offense in the Cotton Bowl.
However, USC's passing offense is not invulnerable. Further, USC's passing offense is probably closer in quality to Penn State (against which Ohio State did pretty well) than Oklahoma (against which Ohio State did poorly). You'll see this in USC's passer rating against all opponents this season.
USC scores high in yards and yards per attempt, but it's not the most efficient passing offense Ohio State will have seen in 2017.
Onlookers observing USC will note the Trojans stumbled out the gate. It's likely how Sam Darnold conceded his footing in the Heisman race as well. Games against Western Michigan and Texas were far closer than they should've been. Even the first game against Stanford in the Coliseum was tight.
That slow start ultimately manifested in what should've been a comfortable win at California and a win at Washington State. USC struggled mightily in a 10-point win in Berkeley before dropping its first decision of the season in Pullman.
Trends clearly improve thereafter but we observe greater game-to-game variation in the passer rating than we do some of the other statistics. There's something happening in this statistic that yards-per-attempt and total passing yards won't quite capture. Namely, some high-output passing games for USC coincide with inefficient outings for Sam Darnold.
Think of the games against Texas and UCLA as illustrative of this issue. Sam Darnold had his best game of the season against Texas where "best" is understood as the greatest difference between passing yards and the opponent's average passing yards conceded. However, that two-overtime win came with two interceptions and a completion percentage of 54.9% after a season-high 51 attempts.
Likewise, Darnold threw for 58 more yards against UCLA than UCLA typically concedes in a game. However, Darnold had no touchdowns and one interception.
The passer rating statistic will pick some of those inefficiency metrics. Put in other words, USC throws the ball a lot (No. 24 nationally in attempts) and is tied for No. 87 in the country in interceptions. Darnold's 12 interceptions are second most in the Pac-12.
Ohio State will hope the Cotton Bowl sees the return of early-season Sam Darnold. It should also hope to capitalize on the kinds of mistakes he's made through the course of a season that saw him start as a Heisman favorite and end absent any national hardware.
