The Game draws near.
We're finally just one day away from renewing the greatest rivalry in sports and I know you've already got your game face on.
As such, I'll get out the way so this week's 11W roundtable can proceed with Ramzy Nasrallah, Kevin Harrish and George Eisner offering up their thoughts on a game with gigantic implications for Ryan Day's Buckeyes and Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines.
Take it away, fellas.
One key for Michigan in trying to slow OSU's lethal passing offense figures to be pressuring C.J. Stroud. Michigan's defensive ends Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo lead the conference in sacks per game but will be going against an Ohio State offensive line giving up just 1.18 sacks per contest, good for No. 12 nationally. Any concerns Michigan can disrupt the passing game via consistent pressure from those DEs or others?
Ramzy: Trying and failing to remember the last time the Ohio State offense under Ryan Day shied away from an opponent’s position of strength. Trying and failing to remember the last time an allegedly game-wrecking Michigan defensive lineman had any impact on an Ohio State game. Trying and failing to think of an Ohio State tackle who will see the field that isn’t a terrific pass-blocker. No concerns, and that isn’t a position of cockiness. It’s knowing how the Buckeyes prepare for this game especially, and just about every other one.
Kevin: I think that's really the only way Michigan has much shot of slowing down this Ohio State offense, but nah, I'm not all that worried. This Buckeye offensive line is basically built to protect the quarterback and they've had no problem doing it all season, even against a guy like Purdue's George Karlaftis, who is about to be a first-round pick.
This is probably the best defensive front and pass rush this offensive line has faced all season, but it's also by far the best pass protection Michigan has faced all season. I know which one I trust to perform when push comes to shove.
George: The margin of efficiency between the Michigan pass rush and Ohio State's pass protection is slim, but still slightly favors the Buckeyes. According to Football Outsiders, Michigan's pass rush ranks among the top 35 teams in FBS at both overall sack rate (7.7% on all non-garbage time pass attempts) and sack rate in throwing situations (10.1% on all passing downs). However, by the same criteria, Ohio State's offensive line ranks among the top 10 teams in the nation in both surrendered sack rate (2.4%, 4th best overall) and sack rate on passing downs (3.3%, 8th best overall).
For context, Michigan State's pass rush ranks outside the top 70 among the two pass rushing statistics detailed above. Put another way, the Wolverines present much more of an imposing threat on C.J. Stroud's drop backs than the Buckeyes' most recent opponent. Oregon's ability to pressure Stroud in Ohio State's lone loss this season only resulted in two sacks, but one of the key moments of the game was when the Ducks forced Stroud to roll right and he tossed the interception that sealed the Buckeyes' fate late in the 4th quarter. The Ohio State offensive line has clearly improved since, but that game revealed one of the keys to beating this Buckeye team is forcing Stroud into uncomfortable throwing situations that result in mistakes.
Michigan's opportunities to pressure Stroud should be minimal. But it only takes one timely hit on the quarterback to force a strip-sack, deflection, or off-target throw that results in an interception. If the Wolverines keep this game interesting, it will be because their pass rush showed up when needed most.
Over the course of the season, we've talked about how Ryan Day's relied on the passing game more this year than any since he's been here. Does that formula stay the same this week against a Michigan defense ranked No. 8 nationally giving up just 128 pass yards per game?
George: Day understands balance is the key to winning the offensive battle of any football game. However, the path to victory against Michigan likely follows the same course it did against last week's high-profile opponent, which was to build an early lead quickly that would force the competition away from their strong running game. Sticking with a pass-inclined approach would not be the worst idea, especially given the wealth of talent in the Buckeye receivers room is so overwhelming at the moment that it prevented any of the soon-to-be first round NFL Draft picks from finishing as Biletnikoff finalists.
My hope is Stroud regularly targets Chris Olave, which will help him finish with 1,000 yards receiving prior to bowl season alongside Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Olave has tormented Michigan going back to the last time Ohio State faced off with their greatest rival in a top-10 showdown, so he figures to have a significant impact once again as one of the most decorated Buckeye receivers in the history of The Game.
Ramzy: The key to demoralizing a team that is finding its confidence is shaking its belief system, early and consistently. The formula is to tell the Michigan defense that yes, Ohio State can throw on you, with success. Everything you saw on tape is true, except it’s a lot faster and more brutal in person. Here’s touchdown. Here’s another one. If we come up empty on a drive, we’ll figure it out. That was probably our fault, not yours. Building that realization into a defense is how you take control of the atmosphere. Last week the Buckeyes played a team that had RELENTLESS on the backs of its helmets and they were emotionally cooked by halftime.
Kevin: I mean, if he wants to, sure. This isn't like 2018 where Ohio State has to basically go Air Raid to win games. Ryan Day isn't throwing the ball a lot because he has to, he's doing it because he's got the three best receivers in the country, the Heisman frontrunner at quarterback, and a gigantic offensive line. When you can basically print touchdowns with your passing game, you pass the ball.
That said, I don't think Ryan Day's going to force it through the air for fun, either. I mean, TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 7.3 yards per carry, too. He'll take whatever gives him points.
How will Michigan's offense attack the Buckeyes? The Wolverines favor the run but Ohio State's defense is giving up just 3.1 yards per carry this year (12th nationally) and is coming off a game in which they ended Kenneth Walker III's Heisman campaign. Can Michigan run on the Buckeyes? Any fear of the pass defense not holding up?
Kevin: I have no idea, to be honest. I don't think Michigan has the athletes to compete with Ohio State on the outside, nor the quarterback to reliably get them the ball anyway. They haven't been able to pass the ball all season, I don't know why they would suddenly be able to do it now.
So I guess that leaves running the ball, but given what Ohio State did to the best running back in the country a week ago... Best of luck!
I honestly don't know how Michigan is going to score more than like 20 points in this game. But maybe they'll surprise me.
George: If Ohio State puts the clamps on Michigan's running attack, I would expect Cade McNamara to put up much more resistance than what Payton Thorne and Michigan State provided last week. Winning the battle on the ground only figures to benefit the Wolverines if they are consistently controlling the pace of play. It is a much easier ask of Michigan to lean on McNamara as the core of their attack over the course of The Game than to consistently torpedo Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum into the teeth of Ohio State's defense in search of positive yardage.
In the six games this season that have seen McNamara attempt more than 25 passes, Michigan's quarterback has a 5.5 / 1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on a 65% completion percentage. He has not thrown for more than 300 yards in any of the Wolverines' wins this season, but McNamara has demonstrated that he will answer the call of higher volume when Jim Harbaugh finds Michigan forced to air out the football.
The Wolverine offensive line actually grades out slightly ahead of the Buckeyes' with respect to the pass blocking efficiency stats detailed in my answer to the first roundtable question. If Ohio State's pass rush cannot generate pressure, Michigan should have the opportunities to throw that will keep this game close. McNamara has only more than three rushing attempts in one game this season, so corralling him in the pocket will be the key to shutting down the Wolverine offense.
Ramzy: Michigan is going to try to confuse the defense with motion and misdirection and call its shot with power. I don’t think they care about anything that was done to Michigan State because Michigan State is inferior in every regard, you see.
Any concern that Thayer Munford is the only Ohio State starter that's starting a game in Ann Arbor and that only 10 total Buckeyes have played on that field?
Ramzy: Well, I think Garrett Wilson had a pretty decent game up there in 2019 playing behind KJ Hill. And even if he didn't, no concerns at all. “I’ve never played on this field before! Eeek!” – no one
Kevin: I mean, with entire rosters cycling over every three or four years, there have been plenty of Ohio State players to make their first starts in Ann Arbor in the past two decades, and based on the game results, it's rarely been a problem. I don't know why it would be any different this time. I don't think Denzel Burke is exactly shaking in his boots at the sight of some jingling keys.
George: Even if Ohio State was welcoming back a host of seasoned veterans with respect to The Game, the edges of emotion and experience without question belong to Michigan this year. Aidan Hutchinson — the defensive team captain — said on Monday that, “I just want to walk off that field as a winner knowing I was on the team that beat Ohio State.” The desire forged from not having defeated an annual arch enemy in over a decade is an exceptionally difficult energy level for any team to match, even if the favorite has a running clock in the weight room dedicated to the occasion.
Given this meeting is in Ann Arbor, Michigan's off-paper advantages in question should make themselves most apparent in the first half before momentum begins to take shape. I expect Ohio State's coaches to make necessary halftime adjustments, but I also anticipate far more turbulence in the earlier stages of the game than most Buckeye fans. I would not at all be surprised if Michigan carries a lead into the half — I would be stunned if they hold onto it for another 30 minutes.
Ohio State enters the game as a 7.5-point favorite. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
George: Ohio State prevails 34-28. No cover, and unlike previous weeks, Stroud will probably not hand out touchdowns as if they were free turkeys on Thanksgiving. Even so, the Heisman hopeful should do just enough with limited mistakes to remain level with Michigan throughout. The key will be the fourth quarter rushing performance of TreVeyon Henderson and Ohio State's offensive line against a Michigan defense that will spend the early afternoon chasing Buckeye receivers all over the field.
Ramzy: Ohio State 45, Michigan 21. CJ Stroud creates more distance between himself and the rest of the Heisman field.
Kevin: Ohio State 49, Michigan 14. I can't see a way Michigan scores more than a couple of touchdowns in this game and repeatedly handing the ball back to this Buckeye offense going to be a problem. Ohio State rolls, C.J. Stroud is my MVP as he earns himself a Heisman.
