With Ryan Day's Ohio State Buckeyes still sitting at about a 7-point underdog to No. 1 Georgia in a New Year's Eve CFP semifinal matchup, the Bulldogs look like a very formidable foe.
Kirby Smart's squad slots as the 11th-best scoring offense in the country opposite the No. 2 scoring defense, giving up only 12.8 points per game. The Bulldogs have allowed just 17 touchdowns in 13 games.
At the core of the defense's identity is elite run-stopping led by defensive tackle Jalen Carter. The versatile 300-pounder anchors a front allowing a scant 76.9 rushing yards per game, good for No. 1 nationally, on 2.93 yards per carry which stands at No. 3 in the land. Opponents have found the end zone on the ground just five times this season.
Stepping up against ranked opponents hasn't been an issue either. In five games against squads in the AP Top-25 at kickoff, Georgia allowed 84 rushing yards per game on 3.04 per carry with two touchdowns in 138 attempts.
Smart's run-stoppers have been elite down the stretch, permitting an average of 63 yards over the last five outings on 2.43 per attempt.
| OPPONENT | OPP RUSH GAME RANK | RUSH ATT | RUSH YDS | YPC | RUSH TD | PASSING YARDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | NO. 45 (180 YPG) | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 1 | 502 |
| GEORGIA TECH | NO. 92 (133 YPG) | 28 | 40 | 1.4 | 1 | 215 |
| KENTUCKY | NO. 108 (120 YPG) | 25 | 89 | 3.6 | 0 | 206 |
| MISSISSIPPI STATE | NO. 130 (78 YPG) | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 | 261 |
| TENNESSEE | NO. 119 (205 YPG) | 42 | 94 | 2.2 | 1 | 195 |
Over those last five games they've not faced a murderer's row however, with four of those opponents slotting No. 92 or worse in rushing yards per game. That said, all five opponents were held significantly below their per game averages.
What this means for Ohio State remains to be seen but it's worth noting the Buckeyes head into the matchup with the nation's 28th-best rushing offense (198 ypg) but the 10th-best yards per carry mark at 5.49 per try.
Heavyweight fights like this often come down to a select few individual matchups and players. For Ohio State's run game, that means center Luke Wypler and guards Donovan Jackson and Matt Jones will be of critical importance as they look to contain Carter.
As our Kyle Jones highlighted in a recent Film Study, it's not just Carter that Ohio State has to worry about. Freshman safety Malaki Starks is also a beast in run support when Georgia's scheme identifies it appropriately, in addition to some future NFL players in the front seven.
All signs indicate Ohio State running back Miyan Williams will be much healthier after the long layoff than he was down the stretch. Day will also have freshman tailback Dallan Hayden at his disposal though he and Tony Alford didn't seem to think he'd be a useful option versus Michigan despite carving up defenses the previous few weeks. Instead, Chip Trayanum carried the load and fared pretty well but repeating that doesn't sound like a winning formula in Atlanta.
Of course, Day could be planning to run just enough for Georgia to account for it while largely airing it out, electing to take his chances with his best skill players against a Bulldogs secondary that ranked No. 51 in the country allowing 215 yards per game.
If you look back to Georgia's last loss - a 41-24 decision against Alabama in the 2021 SEC title game - Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young threw the ball on 63% of the snaps, amassing 421 yards and four touchdowns, while running for another.
And while it was a win, the Bulldogs secondary was burned for 502 passing yards in this year's SEC title matchup against what is now a four-loss LSU squad. Garrett Nussmeier accounted for 297 of those yards with two touchdowns and a pick while Jayden Daniels posted 208 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Neither of those two dudes figure to be the next coming of Joe Burrow.
Speaking of, Georgia's faced just three FBS signal-callers this season currently in the top-20 for passing yards per game and just two in the top-20 for yards per attempt. To its credit, Georgia's defense held those three guys - Hendon Hooker, Will Rogers and Bo Nix - to a cumulative 60% completion rate and an average of 210 passing yards per contest with three picks against one touchdown pass allowed.
C.J. Stroud is currently 17th in passing yards per game (278.3) and No. 3 in yards per attempt (9.5).
Day's gone out of his way to say the plan is to play without fear, and play to win. If that holds true, and Georgia is cool with Ohio State being a bit one dimensional, don't be shocked if Stroud throws it in the neighborhood of 50 times versus forcing a run game that might not be there.
