We're almost a week removed from the debacle in Ohio Stadium but the wound still feels pretty fresh.
That said, No. 5 Ohio State still has a solid shot to make the College Football Playoff, pending what happens tonight in the Pac-12 championship featuring No. 4 USC versus No. 11 Utah and Saturday afternoon in the Big 12 title game pitting No. 3 TCU versus No. 10 Kansas State.
Of course, to need help is the not scenario anyone wanted, particularly as it was created by getting outcoached and out-executed versus the Wolverines.
But hey, a pulse does at least remain and with that the 11W Roundtable marches on as we welcome Chase Brown, Garrick Hodge and Andy Vance.
Were you more surprised by the performance turned in by Ohio State's defense or offense? Why?
Chase: Ohio State's offensive performance did not surprise me as much as the defensive performance did. The Buckeye offense has looked bleak down the stretch in several areas – the occasional head-scratcher of a play call from Ryan Day, the running back depth, etc. Those were problems heading into The Game, and they were problems in The Game. However, that was not the same with the defense. For most of the season, aside from a few breakdowns here and there, I was impressed with what Jim Knowles brought to the table for the Buckeyes' defense. But I left Ohio Stadium on Saturday feeling largely confused about Knowles' game plan and how it was executed on the field. I was surprised to see so much zero coverage as Ohio State sold out to stop the run, and I was even more surprised that seemingly no adjustments were made throughout the contest. It was just a strange performance from start to finish for the Silver Bullets.
Garrick: Probably defense. All we talked about all week leading up to the game is how reliant Michigan has been on the run, and the Wolverines were without by far their best player. OSU did its job in the first half shutting down the running game, but the secondary allowed too many big plays that eventually spiraled.
Andy: With the defense, I was surprised that Ohio State didn’t seem to adjust when Michigan adjusted. I fully expected that if Jim Knowles could orchestrate a shutdown of the Wolverine rushing attack, Ohio State would win handily. When the Buckeye defense did just that in the first half, Harbaugh and friends adjusted to take advantage of Ohio State’s vulnerability in pass defense… which didn’t surprise me at all. Cornerback play has been something discussed all season long as a potential vulnerability, but I always thought it would be exploited by Georgia or another team in the College Football Playoff, not by a Michigan team that hasn’t really aired it out much this season.
But honestly I was more surprised by the offense. C.J. Stroud put up some decent numbers, but why wasn’t Marvin Harrison Jr. featured more heavily? Why was Day scheming up things for Xavier Johnson and Mitch Rossi instead of for Harrison and Emeka Egbuka? Who’s Wheaties did Dallan Hayden piss in to get benched in favor of a guy who is listed on the roster as a linebacker? There were so many things on the offensive side of the ball that made me say, “Huh?” and I honestly didn’t see that coming.
Ryan Day dropped to 1-2 in The Game and the pitchforks are out. No way do I think he should be sent packing at this point but what are one or two critical things he needs to do in short order to give Ohio State a legit shot to win next year's edition?
Andy: First and easiest, he needs to take Kyle Jones’ advice from this week’s mega-crossover Film Study and hand off playcalling duties. He’s brilliant, and will obviously remain involved in strategy and gameplanning and such, but he’s frankly not gotten the job done since the bye week as a playcaller. Too many times were we left wondering why he did something that didn’t seem to make sense; granted, I’m not a certified offensive genius, but this seems like a no-brainer to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the operation.
From the cultural standpoint, though, it’s pretty clear he needs to spend a lot of time with one James Patrick Tressel, the greatest Wolverine Slayer of all time. This should honestly have been the first thing he did when he took the sticks from Urban F. Meyer, but I’m assuming given his time spent as Meyer’s understudy that he didn’t think this was strictly necessary. Well guess what, Coach, it’s clear that you need to go do some soul searching with His Royal Vestness and get your house in order, stat.
Thirdly, I have some concerns about roster construction next season, so successfully farming the transfer portal is going to be critical.
Chase: A few days removed from The Game, I'm genuinely not sure what exactly Day needs to do in short order to put Ohio State in a position to win it next year. But a thought that I've seen swirling around the interweb that I have been considering is for Day to relinquish at least some of his playcalling duties to another coach, like a Kevin Wilson and/or Brian Hartline. Being the head coach of a program and calling plays cannot be an easy task, and I believe Wilson and/or Hartline would be happy to take over those duties when called upon. I'm not saying I'm all in for the idea, but I do think it is something that could change up Ohio State's approach heading into next season that may offer the Buckeyes a better chance to win The Game in 2023.
Garrick: I'm not sure one specific thing is glaring, but this offseason is definitely going to be crucial. Day is going to have to do some soul searching about the results of the last two years and why things turned out the way they did. The best coaches can leave their ego at the door and change up their tendencies when they're not working, we'll see if Day can do that.
C.J. Stroud's postgame comments ruffled some feathers as he opined that the outcome of the Michigan game(s) don't define him or the team. What's your take on that? Knowing that Ohio State recruiting is national, the defensive coordinator has virtually no experience in the rivalry and even the head coach is somewhat new to it, certainly in his current capacity, does the program fully embrace and understand what The Game means? Is all of this a little overblown or no?
Garrick: I feel for Stroud personally, as the man went 21-3 in his career as an Ohio State starting quarterback. Problem is, two of those losses are two Michigan. I understand Stroud's sentiment about trying to find some comfort in the loss, but it unfortunately absolutely will define his tenure with the Buckeyes. That's just the way it works at Ohio State. I don't think anyone from OSU needs an education at how much the rivalry means to this fan base, I mean we've been asking them questions about it since July. Just when you lose twice in a row to the Wolverines, with neither game being particularly close score wise, every little thing gets magnified.
Andy: It’s a nice idea that a player or coach isn’t defined by a single game, and I’m sure they hope that’s the case, but… it’s complete and utter bullshit when the game in question is The Game. John Cooper is viewed in a very specific way because of how his teams shrunk in The Game. Woody Hayes was defined as much by The Rivalry as he was by his multiple national championships. Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer are revered in this town because they did not piss away their opportunity to assert dominance over The Enemy.
Thinking that you can wish away the priority Ohio State fans place on The Game is just that: wishful thinking.
That said, with Brian Hartline and Tim Walton on staff, not to mention two longtime B1G coaches in Kevin Wilson and Larry Johnson, you’d sure as heck think the program is aware of the importance of this game to the overall success of the program. The goal is a national championship, but you can’t win a natty, you can’t win a conference title even, if you don’t win The Game. It’s that simple. Focus on that game, and the rest of the goals will take care of themselves.
Chase: Perhaps I'm wrong on this, but I don't necessarily think Stroud was saying the Michigan game doesn't define Ohio State. I think he was more so saying that one football game doesn't define who they are as people and that the team accomplished and can still accomplish much this season because of who they are as people and as brothers on the team. Stroud is a good kid who stood in front of the podium to answer questions from the media less than 30 minutes after what was his worst loss as a Buckeye, and you could tell how defeated he was in the way he spoke. The result of The Game mattered to him a lot, as it did for many if not all of the players in the locker room. Again, I could be reading it all wrong, but I don't think there's as big a cultural issue toward The Game as people might believe. Rather, Michigan was the team that played better in the last two matchups and was rewarded with victories. I think the ultimate test of Ohio State's culture toward the rivalry will come next year in 2023.
The experts say Ohio State has a legit shot to make the playoff if USC loses to Utah in the Pac-12 championship or TCU falters in its conference title game. Should Ohio State be a real candidate over either of those teams knowing it doesn't even have the opportunity to lose this weekend? Would you want to see Ohio State backdoor its way into the CFP? Why or why not?
Chase: I would like to see Ohio State make its way into the playoff this year. Quite frankly, I don't know why you wouldn't as a Buckeye fan. Ohio State deserves consideration for the College Football Playoff because it is one of the best teams in all of college football, and I believe the Buckeyes would make it as one of the top-four teams should either USC or TCU loss this weekend. If and when the Buckeyes get in, I think they could really make some noise.
Garrick: I think anyone that says they don't want to see Ohio State in a playoff game needs to chill out, take a walk and reflect. The College Football Playoff is what every team in America strives for, and saying you'd rather play in the Orange Bowl or Rose Bowl instead is frankly a loser mentality. As for its candidacy, it absolutely should be in over USC if the Trojans lose. I think the Buckeyes get in if TCU loses, but unless the Horned Frogs get embarrassed, that one is tougher for me to accept because they went undefeated in the regular season and essentially get punished for playing a conference championship.
Andy: I think Ohio State does have a shot, specifically if USC loses. If TCU loses, I think it’s a question of how they lose; if Silo Tech bashes their heads in, that’s one thing, but if it’s a last-second field goal or something, then I could absolutely see TCU staying ahead of Ohio State. But if USC loses, I’m much more comfortable saying the Buckeyes are for sure in the Playoff.
Do I want to see that happen? I’m torn. When the talk started, my gut reaction was, “Why do I want to Ohio State lose to Michigan twice in one season?” but as I’ve thought about it more, the more I think Ohio State would absolutely have a shot to go the distance. Michigan showed Ohio State where it needed to fix things, and I think the staff has the brainpower to figure out how to implement those changes between now and New Years. So yeah, let’s roll the dice and see what happens.
So how will things shake out come Sunday morning? Give us your four playoff teams in order of seed.
Andy: I have zero doubt in my mind that Georgia and Michigan win their conference championship games and finish 1 and 2, respectively.
USC vs. Utah is the closest game in my mind, but it feels like the kind of game Utah is wired to win, and I think that’s Ohio State’s most-likely path to the championship. Utah is actually one spot ahead of USC in this week’s SP+ ratings, and they’re a much-more balanced team than the Trojans. USC has a very good - maybe an exceptional - offense, but a pretty poor defense. Think of Ohio State last year, in terms of the kind of disparity I’m talking about. So I’m going to take the Utes here, which drops USC out of the conversation.
TCU has a larger edge over Kansas State, compared with USC vs. Utah, but we’re still talking about maybe a field goal’s difference in terms of what SP+ would predict. So I think Kansas State’s defense will present a really interesting challenge to the Frogs. I’m going to give the nod to TCU here, though, which means they’ll move up to No. 3, and Ohio State will slide up into the fourth seed, pitting them agains the Bulldogs in the Playoff.
Chase: I'll pick the scenario where either TCU or USC loses this weekend, sending Ohio State to the College Football Playoff. If TCU wins and USC loses, I would have the top four would be Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State. However, if TCU loses and USC wins, I would have Georgia, Michigan, USC and Ohio State.
I think the former is more likely than the latter, so give me this top four: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. TCU, 4. Ohio State.
Garrick: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. TCU, 4. Ohio State. Buckeyes get in after their friends in Utah pull off the win Friday.
