One more sleep is all that separates you from taking in No. 2 Ohio State's battle with No. 3 America's Team™ in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
You know what's on the line for the Buckeyes: a chance to exorcise the demons of the last two Games, capture a Big Ten East division title and a spot in the conference title game, put a smug program and fanbase back in its place and stay in prime position for a chance at a national title.
Despite the evidence suggesting Michigan's sign stealing exploits over the last 2.5 seasons gave the Wolverines a significant advantage on the field, the fact that nonsense has stopped doesn't mean tomorrow will be easy. In fact, it'll likely be it usually is - the most physical and emotional 60 minute gauntlet the Buckeyes and the fans face all season.
So how will it shake out? Can Ohio State run the ball and stop the run? Is Kyle McCord up to the challenge? Can Ohio State score touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone?
For answers to those queries and more, here's 11W's own Andy Anders, Johnny Ginter and George Eisner to break it all down.
In what Ryan Day likes to call “matchup games” who wins the line of scrimmage goes a long way in determining the outcome. The last two seasons, Ohio State’s defense failed to stop the run with Michigan running for 297 yards in 2021 and 252 in 2022, averaging 7.2 yards per carry in each lopsided victory. Is Ohio State’s 2023 defense up to the task against a Wolverines run game that while still very good, isn’t nearly as good on paper as the two prior seasons? What kind of day do you expect Blake Corum to have versus the Buckeyes?
Andy: It’s been a strange year for Corum. Outside of touchdowns, which he leads the nation in with 20, his rushing numbers aren’t all that gaudy. He averages 4.9 yards per carry, a whole yard less per attempt than his 5.9 last year. He’s been gaining significantly fewer yards after contact too, so it’s not just a drop in offensive line play.
Interior, downhill rushing attacks have been the one area of concern I’ve had for Ohio State’s defense this year, and the Rutgers game a few weeks ago didn’t alleviate those worries. Overall, however, the Buckeyes have shown an ability to adjust to run games over the course of the season and I expect them to focus on taking away the run on Saturday to put the game in the hands of a very capable secondary. I expect fewer than 100 yards for Corum, but he’ll still make some plays.
Johnny: Man, I don't even know. Michigan's running game is, by almost every metric, significantly worse than last year. Their offensive line isn't as intimidating, Corum has lost a step, and Donovan Edwards has been completely awful outside of a few brief flashes. But their playcalling is still creative, and gives their guys a chance. And just a few plays last year made all the difference. So... I have no idea. This is going to be the ultimate test to see if this defense really can limit explosive plays.
George: Michigan's ground game performance against Penn State spoke volumes. The Wolverines converted several 3rd and longs by handing the ball off. At one point in the second half, they felt comfortable enough to dial up a running play on 32 straight offensive snaps to end the game. Only an effectively organized unit can get away with that on the road against a ranked opponent.
Ohio State and Michigan have very comparable defenses this season, but one of the key edges the Wolverines will have over the Buckeyes rests in their ability to generate stops at or before the line of scrimmage on running plays. Michigan has done so at a rate of 21.5% this season (14th best in the FBS), while the Buckeyes have done so at a much lower clip of 16.4% (72nd overall).
Big plays set the tone for the Wolverines a season ago against OSU, albeit much more through the air than the ground. The encore could very well come down to which backfield is able to reach the second level of the defense, versus which more often leaves its offense in 2nd/3rd and long. I would expect Ohio State to limit big gains given the conservative approach of Jim Knowles this season, but I won't be shocked if the Buckeyes have trouble keeping Corum from falling forward.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State averaged 177 rushing yards on 5.53 yards per carry over the last three games while averaging just 133 yards on 3.90 per carry during the first eight contests. Will the Buckeyes be able to keep that momentum going Saturday? What’s the key to running the ball against this Michigan defense? Will the Buckeyes deploy any new wrinkles to run the ball or simply try to execute what’s been working as of late?
George: Keeping the momentum going will be easier said than done. I'm not going to pretend to have the foolproof solution to cracking Michigan's stout run defense. However, I do believe the evolution of Ohio State's rushing attack that has unfolded over the last few weeks will help, even if it has materialized simply by opening up the playbook a bit more. Throwing Henderson and Chip Trayanum into the teeth of the Wolverines won't likely yield consistent results, but mixing up the point of attack with sweeps and other runs targeting the edge will go a long way towards keeping Michigan's defense honest on obvious rushing downs.
Henderson still probably needs a big game for the Buckeyes to feel comfortable about winning this one. However, mixing in Trayanum and Xavier Johnson for situations tailored to their skill sets will also prove crucial.
Andy: It’s going to be difficult. Michigan has one of the biggest, deepest, most productive interior defensive lines in the country. Still, given the improvements over the past few weeks and his ability to make something out of nothing at times, I expect TreVeyon Henderson to break off at least one big run at some point in this game.
A mixture of both wrinkles and execution has opened things up for Ohio State since Henderson’s return, which has perhaps been the biggest factor in its run-game resurgence. Getting the receivers involved more through jet sweeps/pop passes has been a plus, in addition to more pre-snap motion to confuse the eyes of linebackers. I think I’ve seen more counters and misdirection types of runs recently too, and it’s been a positive wrinkle for the team.
Johnny: TreVeyon Henderson looks better than ever, and I love, love, love how guys like Xavier Johnson have been incorporated into the running game. Ryan Day is calling a lot more inside zone and it's paying dividends. The concern is that Michigan has a fantastic defensive line, especially up the middle, and it's going to be tough to find something that works consistently early.
Ohio State’s red zone offense versus Michigan’s red zone defense could be a gigantic factor in this game. The Buckeyes rank just 64th nationally scoring touchdowns on only 62% of their red zone trips. Michigan’s defense has allowed a mere six touchdowns on 18 red zone trips allowed and that 33% clip is the best in the nation. How confident are you the Buckeyes can find the end zone once they reach the red zone? Can Ohio State win this game if it can’t score red zone touchdowns? What do the Buckeyes need to do different or better inside the red zone?
Johnny: If Ohio State doesn't score touchdowns early they're going to lose the game, simple as that. They've got to get creative with the short passing game in the red zone, using guys like Cade Stover and Gee Scott to force linebackers and safeties back from the line of scrimmage.
George: Should note that half of those touchdowns Michigan conceded happened against Maryland last week.
How many legitimate fade routes have Buckeye fans seen to Marvin Harrison Jr. this season from inside the red zone? It stands to reason that throwing a jump ball to the best position player in college football would have an enjoyable success rate, right? Would you assume Route Man Marv comes down with at least 62% of the one-on-one balls thrown his way in the end zone against collegiate corners?
No, Ohio State will not win this game if it fails to score in the red zone. But the Buckeyes have hardly shown their full hand in that sector this season, and I expect Ryan Day to exhaust as many creative options available as possible — including obvious ones that have failed to make it on film in a greater than sparse capacity.
Andy: Ohio State is going to convert for a few red zone touchdowns to win this game, as I don’t expect Michigan’s defense to allow particularly long touchdown plays. I don’t think the Buckeyes will score every time they venture inside the 20-yard line, but do think they’ll get there on multiple occasions and be able to cash a few in.
Really, with the manipulations being so tight, it’s about relying on your playmakers in the red zone or doing something to fool the defense on top of execution. Involve Marvin Harrison Jr., who has given you some of your best red zone successes. Use some motion, get creative to find space.
Michigan’s JJ. McCarthy is the veteran signal-caller in this matchup and he killed Ohio State last year but he hasn’t looked all that sharp since Jim Harbaugh was sidelined a few weeks ago for leading a dirty program. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s quarterback, first-year starter Kyle McCord, has eight touchdown passes but all four of his interceptions this season have come on the road. How confident are you Ohio State’s thus far elite defense can slow down McCarthy? What’s your gut say about McCord’s ability to lead the offense to touchdowns and avoid turnovers?
Andy: I think much of McCarthy’s struggles the last two weeks can be attributed to a leg injury suffered against Penn State, and he really didn’t get much of a chance to open things up with only eight pass attempts in that contest.
With that being said, I think the biggest advantage of any for Ohio State on Saturday might be its secondary going up against Michigan’s wide receivers. Roman Wilson is the only one who catches my attention, but I’m confident in Denzel Burke’s ability to lock him up. The Buckeyes have the nation’s No. 1 pass defense, and even without Lathan Ransom, I just don’t think the Wolverines have the weapons to pick this defense apart through the air.
On McCord, I think he’s shown in the Notre Dame game and in other places that the moment isn’t going to be too big for him. It will all come down to proper mechanics, taking what the defense gives him and avoiding those costly turnovers you mentioned. I see a day against a tough Michigan defense where he manages the game, gives Harrison a chance to make plays and does enough to win but doesn’t have a completion percentage over 60.
Johnny: McCarthy has been mostly great this season, but Michigan throwing the passing game in the trash as soon as they saw their tackles getting torched was a huge tell with how confident they feel about McCarthy's grace under pressure. I'm more worried about his ability to scramble and pick up 30-40 yards in the blink of an eye once he gets out of the pocket. The Buckeye safeties will have to have the best game of their season collectively.
George: McCarthy's evasiveness behind the line of scrimmage lays the foundation for his approach to success on the football field, which makes the speculation surrounding his health interesting as The Game looms. But that greatest strength also reveals a weakness of his in that he is quite reluctant to absorb any hits. You will seldom see a quarterback that scrambles backwards out of bounds to avoid contact in lieu of giving themselves up as a runner.
Pressure McCarthy, and the mistakes will happen. He may get away more times than Ohio State can get a hand on him, but as long as the Buckeyes can finish their opportunities with sacks when they do break into the backfield, McCarthy's pocket anxiety should only continue to increase. However, if he remains comfortably juuuust out of reach, Saturday likely plays out as the most difficult afternoon the Ohio State defense has experienced all season.
I remain much more concerned about McCord's ability to handle pressure. We saw Day gradually provide McCord with more check down options in recent weeks, but his own ability to make correct decisions under duress hardly grades better than that of McCarthy. McCord at least has big-game experience from the do-or-die final drive at Notre Dame earlier this season, which hopefully helps settle him within the raucous road environment of Ann Arbor.
It’s not uncommon for The Game to create a legacy for a guy that isn’t already a star. Those guys can be starters but maybe they aren’t the weekly headliners. Anyone jump out at you as a guy who could have a game-changing play or turn in a stellar performance on Saturday? Or maybe you think a star player will simply have his a truly legendary performance?
George: Throw the damn football to Marvin Harrison Jr.
Andy: Josh Proctor has been a motivated force for Ohio State all season, I could see him making either a game-changing hit or a game-changing interception – one that he doesn’t drop this time. I also think there’s a high likelihood of a legacy-sealing performance from Harrison.
Johnny: Emeka Egbuka might be low-key the most dangerous man on the field on Saturday. If he's fully healthy, Michigan really has nobody who can match up with him if they choose to double Marvin Harrison, Jr. And if they don't, well...
Ohio State enters the matchup with Michigan as a regular season underdog (+3.5) for the first time in the Ryan Day era. I normally ask if you think the Buckeyes cover but since they’re underdogs, I’ll just ask do they win? Give us your final score and game MVP.
Johnny: I would love to see the Buckeyes pull off the upset here, and I think it'll be close, but ultimately I think J.J. McCarthy and the ghost of Jim Harbaugh take the win, 28-24, with McCarthy being the MVP.
George: Ohio State upsets Michigan 28-21 in a game that sees an alarming amount of 4th down attempts, conversions, and key swings in momentum generated by each side of the football for both teams. Marvin Harrison Jr. catches a pair of touchdowns on his way to MVP honors, and Jim Knowles illustrates how less defensive aggression could have made the difference a season ago.
Andy: I think that the Buckeyes’ defense focuses on stopping the run, and McCarthy doesn’t have enough playmakers – along with mobility that might still be limited – to keep up with Ohio State’s weapons on offense.
Harrison, Henderson, Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover make enough plays to capitalize on a legendary defense performance and Ohio State wins 24-17. The MVP is Harrison.
