The Game has finally arrived.
Michigan
wolverines
52 weeks removed from Ohio State’s 45-23 loss to Michigan at Ohio Stadium in 2022, Ohio State gets its long-awaited shot at revenge today in Ann Arbor. The toughest challenge of the regular season awaits the Buckeyes, who are 11-0 this season but now goes head-to-head with the third-ranked team in the country, whose defense leads the nation in both points and yards allowed per game this season.
What are the biggest questions surrounding the Buckeyes entering this season-defining matchup, who are the top players to watch for Ohio State and which props would we consider making bets on today? We delve into all of that in our final Last Call of the regular season.
Biggest Questions
How effectively will Ohio State stop the run?
During its eight-year winning streak against Michigan from 2012-19, Ohio State never allowed the Wolverines to rush for more than 161 yards in a game. The Buckeyes allowed the Wolverines to rush for more than 250 yards in each of the last two meetings, which played a big part in Michigan scoring 42+ points in both games to win them both by multiple scores.
That data will tell you that limiting Michigan’s run game has been one of Ohio State’s most important keys to success in The Game, and it might be the biggest key to success for the Buckeyes this year. Michigan’s passing game has been unreliable – J.J. McCarthy has thrown for just 201 yards in their last two games and hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in three games – so I like the Buckeyes’ chances if they can force the Wolverines into situations where they have to pass the ball to win, especially considering Ohio State leads the nation in opposing passing yards per game and per attempt and passer rating.
Ohio State’s run defense has been strong for the most part this season, allowing only 108.55 yards per game and 3.32 yards per attempt, but this will be the truest test of whether the Buckeyes can consistently stop the run against a team with comparable talent that won’t be afraid to keep running the ball until Ohio State proves it can stop it. The Buckeyes’ path to success lies in forcing the Wolverines out of their desired game plan.
– Dan Hope
Can Ohio State keep Kyle McCord clean?
The difference in the play of Kyle McCord when he's protected by his offensive line compared to when he's under pressure is very stark.
Per Pro Football Focus, when McCord is kept clean (on 75.4 percent of his dropbacks) he's completed 72.7% of his passes and averaged 10.3 yards per attempt with a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a PFF offensive grade of 92 (out of 100).
While facing heat, McCord is completing 38% of his passes, averaging a measly 4 yards per attempt with a two-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio and an offensive grade of 28.
Michigan has a talented defensive line that could have an advantage over the Buckeyes’ offensive line. Ohio State’s front five digging deep and keeping their quarterback upright will go a long way in helping the Buckeyes win The Game.
– Garrick Hodge
How do the Buckeyes get playmakers involved?
If Ohio State is to beat Michigan this weekend, it needs all of its marquee weapons – Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Cade Stover and TreVeyon Henderson – to make plays. Part of that is those players playing up to their ability, the other part is Ryan Day and Brian Hartline coming up with a scheme that involves those players in creative ways to create space for them.
That and McCord's ability to distribute the football and make the plays given to him by the defense.
– Andy Anders
Can JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer get to the quarterback?
When Michigan faced Penn State on Nov. 11, right tackle Karsen Barnhart looked rough. Penn State defensive ends Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac put Barnhart in a blender on multiple occasions before the Wolverines were forced to send reinforcements in the form of additional offensive linemen, tight ends and running backs. As the game continued, and Michigan was able to run the ball at will, the Wolverines abandoned the passing game altogether.
Against Ohio State, I don't expect Michigan will have the luxury of running the ball on every down, so I look forward to the matchup of Barnhart vs. Tuimoloau/Sawyer. Both of the Buckeyes' edge rushers have been at the top of their games as of late, which should bode well for Jim Knowles' defense.
- Chase Brown
Players to Watch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
When Ohio State needed him most against Penn State, the Buckeyes' star wide receiver stepped up for 11 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown against a pretty damn good cornerback in Kalen King.
If the Buckeyes are going to score effectively on Michigan, Harrison Jr. will need to be targeted early and often, and the Heisman hopeful will have to beat Wolverines cornerback Will Johnson.
This is Harrison Jr.'s chance for a Heisman moment, but more importantly, a chance to beat Michigan, something he's craved throughout his entire career.
- Garrick Hodge
JT Tuimoloau
Tuimoloau has had a penchant for stepping up in big games and big moments. Well, there’s no bigger game than this, and there are sure to be big moments where the Buckeyes need their defensive stars to step up and make big plays.
Michigan’s offensive tackles have been the weak link of their offensive line this season, and left tackle LaDarius Henderson is coming back from an injury that forced him to miss Michigan’s last game against Maryland. That seemingly leaves an opening for Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer to be difference-makers off the edge in Ann Arbor, and Tuimoloau has been at his best when Ohio State has needed him most this season.
A sack or two from Tuimoloau could make a big difference in this game, while he’ll also play an important role in Ohio State’s run-stopping efforts.
– Dan Hope
Josh Proctor
Something tells me Ohio State's secondary is going to make a game-changing play in this one, and I think the sixth-year senior enjoying a breakout campaign is a prime candidate to do that. Proctor's dropped plenty of interceptions this year so maybe he hauls in his second on Saturday, but he's also been a force defending the run and breaking up passes.
– Andy Anders
TreVeyon Henderson
In Ohio State's win over Wisconsin – Henderson's return to action after a four-week absence – he had 28 touches for 207 yards and one touchdown. His encore was 27 touches for 208 yards and one touchdown vs. Rutgers, and he had 15 touches for 77 yards and one touchdown vs. Michigan State. Add in last week’s stats of 17 touches for 172 yards and two touchdowns vs. Minnesota, and Henderson's numbers combine for an impressive 74 touches for 664 yards and five scores in Ohio State’s last four games.
I believe Henderson needs 20-plus touches for Ohio State to beat Michigan on Saturday, and I'd bet the Buckeyes believe the same. That's why he's my player to watch this week. Looks for him to be a threat as a ballcarrier and a pass-catcher as Ohio State looks to take down Michigan for the first time since 2019.
– Chase Brown
Best Bets
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 87.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Harrison has surpassed 100 receiving yards seven times this season. In the other four games, he's been held to 32 or less. With the magnitude of Saturday's contest and Harrison hungry to stamp his Ohio State legacy with a pair of Gold Pants, I expect his outing against Michigan to be one of the 100-yard variety.
– Andy Anders
Largest Lead of the Game Under 14.5 (-145, DraftKings)
Recent history suggests there could be value on the other side of this prop (-115), as the last four editions of The Game have all been decided by 15 points or more. But as evenly matched as the two teams appear to be this year and as stout as both defenses have been all season, I don’t see either team taking a lead of more than two touchdowns in this one.
– Dan Hope
TreVeyon Henderson Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Bet365)
Last week, Bet365 shocked me with its line of TreVeyon Henderson O/U 9.5 receiving yards vs. Minnesota. That bet was cashed as Henderson recorded two catches for 26 yards against the Golden Gophers. I'll return to the well this week, as Bet365 has Henderson's O/U bumped to 14.5 vs. Michigan. Over the past four weeks, the Hopewell, Virginia, native has had 13 receptions for 165 yards, which is around three receptions and 41 yards a game, so I recommend this bet once more.
- Chase Brown
Ohio State moneyline (+136, FanDuel)
It's not often you can bet on Ohio State to win a game straight up and have plus odds. Considering the odds started around +155, lots of money has been coming into sportsbooks on the Buckeyes and see the clear value of the money-making potential of OSU as an underdog.
– Garrick Hodge
