Ohio State vs. Texas Preview: Battle of Elite Defenses On Tap for Cotton Bowl With National Championship Game Spot On the Line

#5 Texas

Longhorns

13 - 2 (7-2)

roster  |  schedule

Jan. 10, 2025 - 7:30 pm et

AT&T Stadium

Arlington, TX

ESPNOSU -6

The Buckeyes will try to handle what is expected to be a hostile crowd in Arlington for the Cotton Bowl, just three hours away from the campus of their College Football Playoff semifinal opponent, Texas. While both teams played home games in the first round and defeated squads that got byes in the quarterfinals, their CFP stories have been starkly different to date.

Ohio State entered as the eighth seed in the CFP and blew apart each of its first two opponents. The Buckeyes' 42-17 dismantling of ninth-seeded Tennessee was eye-catching but not especially surprising given a home atmosphere, cold-weather conditions and the overall talent that always lay beneath the surface of a squad fresh off a 13-10 loss to its rival. More shocking is the beatdown the scarlet and gray unleashed upon No. 1 Oregon.

Despite losing to the Ducks 32-31 on the road the first time the teams played this year, Ohio State raced out to a 34-0 lead en route to a 41-21 demolishing. Texas, by contrast, nearly fell in its quarterfinal game after handling 12th-seeded Clemson in the first round.

Entering as favorites over fourth-seeded Arizona State in the Peach Bowl, the Longhorns allowed a 16-point fourth-quarter comeback off the back of 143 rushing yards and 99 receiving yards from star Sun Devil running back Cameron Skattebo. It took a controversial targeting no-call and overtime for Texas to finally put ASU away, 39-31.

That's why, despite Texas' talent, higher seeding and a likely friendly environment, the Longhorns are entering the Cotton Bowl as underdogs. But it's a role head coach Steve Sarkisian is playing into.

"I need Longhorn Nation to show out in Arlington," he told reporters last week. "We're going to need everything we’ve got to try to win this game. Clearly, we're massive underdogs. Nobody's going to give us a shot. So we're going to need all that we can to try to win this game."

Ohio State can't afford to take Texas lightly so close to attaining the redemption it's dreamed of since falling to Michigan on the last weekend of November. The Buckeyes must win a battle of elite defenses and curtail a familiar face at quarterback for Texas.

The Headlines

Defense Wins Championships

JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have combined for 7.5 sacks in two Ohio State playoff games.

Two of the best defenses in college football will take the field in Arlington on Friday.

Ohio State is No. 1 in both scoring and total defense this season. Texas is right behind them at No. 4 and No. 3, respectively. The Longhorns are No. 1 in passing yards allowed per attempt while the Buckeyes are No. 3. Ohio State is No. 2 in opposing yards per carry and Texas is No. 14.

Defensive line, linebacker and secondary, there are no consistent weaknesses for either unit at any of the three levels. Texas has the Jim Thorpe Award winner at cornerback in Jahdae Barron, a first-team All-SEC linebacker in Anthony Hill Jr. and a Shaun Alexander National Freshman of the Year with nine sacks at defensive end in Colin Simmons. Ohio State has a unanimous All-American at safety in Caleb Downs, a first-team All-Big Ten linebacker in Cody Simon and perhaps the nation's premier defensive end tandem – certainly the CFP's premier defensive end tandem thus far – in JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer.

The only team to manage more than 17 points in a game against Ohio State is Oregon, who did it in the lone blemish on the Buckeyes' defensive résumé at Autzen Stadium in October and then again in the playoffs after the game was well in hand for the Buckeyes. Texas has thrived on big plays, ranking second in the country with 30 forced turnovers, mostly coming on 21 interceptions from the Longhorns' heralded defensive backfield. Both teams rank in the top five in sacks, Ohio State with 47 and Texas with 44.

To win the Cotton Bowl, one team's offense will have to find ways to crack the imposing eleven lined up on the other side.

Leave It On Quinn

Defense always starts with stopping the run, as Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has readily told reporters. But that's especially apparent for the Buckeyes against the Longhorns.

Texas has run the ball for less than 2 yards per carry in three different games this season – twice against Georgia and in its most recent game against Arizona State. Kelvin Banks Jr. is a future first-round NFL draft pick at left tackle for the Longhorns and right tackle Cameron Williams has a similar stock, but this is a contest where Ohio State's front six is completely capable of shoving Texas' offense into a one-dimensional locker.

That one dimension would then be Longhorn quarterback Quinn Ewers, himself a top storyline entering Friday. Ewers spent the first four months of his college football career at Ohio State before transferring to his home-state school. The No. 1 prospect in the class of 2022 who reclassified to the class of 2021 expressed gratitude for that period in his life on Monday.

“Learned a lot while I was there under Coach (Ryan) Day, and C.J. (Stroud), and just that whole room was awesome to be around. Super thankful for that time that I got to spend there,” Ewers said. “So I don't regret any decision I've made on going or anything like that. The main reason I went was I felt like I had a great relationship with the coaching staff and they were winning a lot of games and I wanted to go be a part of something like that. And the reason I came back to Texas was to be closer to where I'm from and just closer to the resources that I have and the relationships that I've built over time just being from Texas.”

Ewers has had a good three-year career in Austin, the best statistically being his 2023 campaign when he completed 69% of his passes for 3,479 yards and 22 touchdowns with six interceptions. His 2024 has been less consistent but still productive with a 66.5% completion rate, 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns but 11 interceptions. His yards per attempt has dipped from 8.8 to 7.9.

He's thrown an interception in each of the Longhorns' last four games but also threw for at least 320 yards in two of their last three. Though Ewers presents some danger, as does 936-yard receiver Matthew Golden, any time Ohio State's defense can stop the run and laser-focus on the pass one has to like the Buckeyes' chances with their combination of sticky coverage and daunting pass rush.

Come Out Aggressive Once More

Yes, Texas has the No. 1 pass defense in college football and the second-most interceptions in the country this season. No, that doesn't mean the Buckeyes should abandon the game plan that's worked so well in the first two rounds of the CFP.

Ohio State came out slinging the pill against Tennessee and Oregon and scored on its opening drive of both games to catalyze 300-yard passing performances from quarterback Will Howard. The Buckeyes needed just three plays to go 75 yards for a touchdown against the Ducks on their first possession, and all 75 came through the air. Their first drive against the Volunteers features five called passes and just one called run to get to the end zone, culminating with a 37-yard scoring bomb to Jeremiah Smith.

The fact is, there might be no defense in college football that can contain Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and Ohio State's passing game when it's firing. The Buckeyes are fourth nationally in yards per pass attempt at 9.2, and Howard is also fourth nationally among quarterbacks for completion percentage at 72.6%.

Despite their incredible statistical outputs, Texas' secondary isn't without scars. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik threw for 336 yards in the first round of the CFP on a respectable 7.8 yards per pass attempt. Arizona State also threw for 296 yards, but at a less desirable rate of 6.2 per toss.

Howard is prioritizing sage decision-making entering the matchup. Joining Barron in Texas’ secondary is another turnover-creator in strong safety Andrew Mukuba, with five interceptions to go with 63 tackles, four tackles for loss and six pass breakups. Free safety Michael Taaffe has racked up 73 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, two sacks, two interceptions and 10 PBUs.

“I think they try to bait you into doing things,” Howard said on Sunday. “I think they try to bait you into pushing the ball into tight windows. And you got to be smart. Playing a defense like this, you have to know when to take those shots and when not to and when to be smart with it. There's cavities, there's creases in it. But you have to find them and be patient with it and not force it to happen. Because those guys react quick.”

Watch Out For These Guys

Texas CB Jahdae Barron

Barron won the Thorpe for a reason, racking up 61 tackles with five interceptions and 11 PBUs in 2024. The consensus All-American has allowed just 35 receptions on 65 targets for 272 yards and no touchdowns this season, a smothering 4.2 yards per target, per Pro Football Focus. His matchup with Smith will be a spectacle.

Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr.

Middle linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. anchors Texas' defensive front. (Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images)

With 107 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, an interception and four forced fumbles this year, Hill can be a disruptor to even the most prolific offenses. Ohio State’s offensive line and Howard will need to identify his location each snap and ensure he can’t wreck their plans.

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith

Going with the obvious choice for an Ohio State player to watch here, Smith’s dominance will be perhaps more important to establish than ever against the vaunted Texas secondary. The freshman has posted back-to-back 100-yard games in the playoff, setting a single-game school freshman receiving yards record with seven receptions for 187 yards and two touchdowns vs. Oregon.

Game Week Talk

“I just hope we're good enough to guard them. I mean, these guys are really good players. We'll find out.”– Steve Sarkisian on Ohio State's wide receivers

Sarkisian is not taking the challenge of Smith, Egbuka and Tate lightly. His pass defense might be tops in the country but they haven't seen anything the caliber of what Ohio State presents out wide. In turn, Texas' defensive backs will be among the best the Buckeyes have faced in 2024.

“I look at their offensive line, the coaches, their running backs, and I know that they're very, very talented. They're very good. So we're going to have to be at our best.”– Ryan Day on Texas' running game

Despite some of the inconsistencies Texas has had running the football, Day was very complimentary of the Longhorns on the ground when asked directly if it was an area he felt his team could exploit. They do still possess an offensive line that was a Joe Moore Award finalist, after all.

“Texas D-line is probably the fastest we've seen. You can tell they're very well-disciplined. You can tell they do a great job of getting hands off, they do a great job of bending the corner.”– Donovan Jackson on Texas' defensive line

Texas features four players with 5.5 sacks or more, three of them defensive ends in Simmons, Trey Moore and Barryn Sorrell. Keeping Howard clean for a third straight playoff game would be a huge boost to Ohio State as it tries to attack the Longhorns downfield.

Get Smart

• Ohio State has a 1-2 all-time record against Texas. All three previous matchups took place from 2005-09.
• Ohio State has a 2-1 all-time record in the Cotton Bowl with wins over Texas A&M (1987) and USC (2017) and a loss to Missouri (2023).
• This is Ohio State’s sixth appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals, tying Clemson for the second-most of all schools behind only Alabama. Ohio State has a 2-3 record in its previous five CFP semifinal games.
• This will be Ohio State’s fifth game at AT&T Stadium. Ohio State has a 3-1 all-time record at Jerry World, including a win over Oregon in the first-ever national championship game at the end of the 2014 season, the 2017 Cotton Bowl win over USC, a 2018 regular-season win over TCU and last year’s Cotton Bowl loss to Missouri.
• Ohio State’s roster includes six players from Texas: Starting left tackle Donovan Jackson, kicker Jayden Fielding, freshman running back James Peoples, freshman linebacker Payton Pierce, redshirt freshman cornerback Calvin Simpson-Hunt and freshman long snapper Morrow Evans.
• Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers started his career for Ohio State before transferring to the Longhorns after one season.
• ESPN’s College GameDay will broadcast from the Cotton Bowl starting at 6 p.m., marking the sixth time GameDay will be in attendance for an Ohio State game this season, the most of any school.
• Ohio State and Texas will play each other again on Aug. 30 at Ohio Stadium in the 2025 season opener for both teams.

How It Plays Out

Line: Ohio State -6, O/U 53.5

Can it all be so easy? Ohio State has flatly rolled through the first two rounds of the CFP, even when no one expected the Buckeyes to against Oregon. Texas' roster is loaded with talent, particularly on the defensive side of the football, but the Longhorns have had clear flaws throughout the season and in the playoffs. Their secondary is elite, but no one has been able to slow Smith when he's properly schemed up.

Perhaps there are a few exploits for Texas in this game. While Ohio State's offensive line has undeniably risen to the occasion this postseason, it is still comprised of only two starters at their original positions with a few underclassmen working in. If Ewers comes out on fire, his offensive line is good enough in pass protection to give the Buckeyes secondary headaches.

Overall though, too much has been riding Ohio State's way to pick against the Buckeyes in this game. Each of Eleven Warriors' 14 staffers has the Scarlet and Gray advancing to a national title game against either Penn State or Notre Dame. Only one of those staffers – Andy Anders, the very writer of this preview – has OSU winning by only one score.

Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction
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