How much will the Buckeyes' most prominent players fill up the stat sheet in 2024?
With so many playmakers on both sides of the ball, that's the question we're looking to answer in our 2024 Ohio State football preview. We came up with over/unders for many of the best Buckeyes numbers that we believe could realistically go either way – and predict whether each Ohio State player will hit the respective overs.
(Note: Given the expanded playoff and the fact that OSU's season could be between 13 and 17 games this season, these numbers are just for the 12 regular-season games).
| Player | Over/Under | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Will Howard (Passing) | 3,249.5 passing yards | Under |
| 25.5 passing touchdowns | Over | |
| Will Howard (Rushing) | 274.5 rushing yards | Under |
| 5.5 rushing touchdowns | Over | |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 899.5 rushing yards | Over |
| 11.5 rushing touchdowns | Under | |
| Quinshon Judkins | 899.5 rushing yards | Over |
| 11.5 rushing touchdowns | Over | |
| Emeka Egbuka | 949.5 receiving yards | Over |
| 7.5 receiving touchdowns | Over | |
| Carnell Tate | 799.5 receiving yards | Under |
| 6.5 receiving touchdowns | Over | |
| Jeremiah Smith | 849.5 receiving yards | Over |
| 7.5 receiving touchdowns | Over | |
| Brandon Inniss | 499.5 receiving yards | Over |
| 3.5 receiving touchdowns | Under | |
| Jack Sawyer | 7.5 sacks | Over |
| JT Tuimoloau | 6.5 sacks | Over |
| Tyleik Williams | 5.5 sacks | Over |
| Denzel Burke | 1.5 interceptions | Over |
| Davison Igbinosun | 1.5 interceptions | Under |
| Jordan Hancock | 1.5 interceptions | Under |
| Lathan Ransom | 1.5 interceptions | Under |
| Caleb Downs | 2.5 interceptions | Under |
Will Howard
O/U: 3,294.5 passing yards, 25.5 passing touchdowns; 274.5 rushing yards, 5.5 rushing touchdowns
Howard is entering his first season as a Buckeye but he certainly has plenty of experience. During his four-year career at Kansas State, the fifth-year senior threw for 5,786 yards, 48 touchdowns and 25 interceptions while running for 921 yards and 19 touchdowns in 34 games.
Howard will have some big-time playmakers in Columbus, both in the backfield and on the outside, more than he's ever had in his career. Although Howard's career-high thus far is 2,643 passing yards in 12 games last season, Ohio State's starting quarterback has reached the 3,000-yard mark every year dating back to 2017 (excluding the shortened 2020 season due to COVID), meaning that Howard will have to have the best season of his career to continue that streak.
Prediction: Under 3,249.5 passing yards, Over 25.5 passing touchdowns; Under 274.5 rushing yards, Over 5.5 rushing touchdowns
Howard's inconsistencies downfield are certainly well-noted, but so is his improvement from this spring to fall camp. It's clear he is becoming more comfortable with Ohio State's offense and gaining chemistry with his receivers. Pair that with the amount of talent that OSU has on the outside, the 6-foot-4, 235-pound quarterback will surpass the 3,000-yard mark – as every OSU gunslinger has done over the last seven seasons – but won't quite reach 3,250 yards given how dominant Ohio State's rushing attack should be.
With that, while Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and Howard have all discussed how important the quarterback's ability to run will be to OSU's success this season, the Buckeyes won’t need to use him in the run game frequently with the number of playmakers the Buckeyes have. That’s why I don’t expect Howard to run for more than 300 net yards, a number an Ohio State quarterback hasn't reached since Justin Fields ran for 383 yards in 2020.
TreVeyon Henderson
O/U: 899.5 rushing yards, 11.5 rushing touchdowns
When healthy, Henderson is one of the best running backs in the country. That said, he missed four games in 2022 and two in 2023. After rushing for 1,248 yards as a freshman, Henderson has combined to run for 1,497 yards over the last two seasons, including 926 in 10 games last year.
With the addition of Judkins, Ohio State now boasts the best one-two punch at running back in college football. Given the longer season along with Henderson's history, Judkins is most certainly a welcome addition, one that will help both players this season and long-term. With that, it will be interesting to see how Day, Kelly and Carlos Locklyn deploy the two running backs given how talented each of them is. Will one of the two sit out a game (or two) for "load management" to remain fresh for when it matters in late November, December and January, or will the pair just split first-team carries throughout every game?
Prediction: Over 899.5 rushing yards, Under 11.5 rushing touchdowns
Howard adds another wrinkle to Ohio State's rushing attack along with the Judkins addition. While the quarterback's ability to run the ball will most certainly help the running backs in terms of opening holes in the opening defense, Howard could also take rushing attempts away from the rest of the backfield as well, especially in the red zone. Even then, though, Henderson will still have plenty of opportunities to make plays with the ball in his hands.
That, paired with Ohio State being smart with how it uses its running backs to keep them fresh for the long haul, likely means that Henderson could have his first full season since 2021, his first (and only) season he eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark on the ground. If Henderson can stay healthy, he will notch 900-plus yards but not quite reach the touchdown mark given that Howard and Judkins will also pitch in with plenty of touchdowns on the ground.
Quinshon Judkins
O/U: 899.5 rushing yards, 11.5 rushing touchdowns
After an incredible freshman season at Ole Miss that included 1,567 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground, Judkins followed that up by rushing for 1,158 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2023. Now, he joins Henderson in what is expected to be a dominant backfield in Columbus.
With 2,725 rushing yards in two seasons, Judkins certainly won't be counted on to carry as much of the load as a Buckeye, which might be one of the reasons he decided to transfer to Ohio State. Although his efficiency per carry dropped from 5.7 yards in 2022 to 4.3 last season, Judkins will likely be a more efficient runner in 2024 as he benefits from having much fresher legs than years past.
Prediction: Over 899.5 rushing yards, Over 11.5 rushing touchdowns
Judkins' fresh legs throughout an entire season will mean that he will continue to be one of the best running backs in college football this year. Howard and Henderson will obviously take opportunities away from Judkins throughout the season, but his ability to come in fresh when the opponent's defense is tired – especially in the second half – will be a lethal combination, for both him and Henderson. Look for Ohio State to swap Henderson and Judkins to keep them fresh, both in the short term and long term.
With that freshness paired with Judkins' dominant performance at Ole Miss against SEC opponents, he will be one of two running backs to hit the 900-yard mark this season and also lead Ohio State in rushing touchdowns.
Emeka Egbuka
O/U: 949.5 receiving yards, 7.5 receiving touchdowns
The top receiver on the depth chart entering the season, Egbuka will look to get back to his 2022 numbers this fall. While dealing with an ankle injury last season, Egbuka caught only 41 passes for 515 yards and four touchdowns. He had his best collegiate season a year prior, totaling 74 receptions for 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022.
Prediction: Over 949.5 receiving yards, Over 7.5 receiving touchdowns
There's only one football, which could make it so that Egbuka won't get as many opportunities to make plays as he should, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. The flip side of that is that the wideout should receive plenty of one-on-one opportunities given that the opponent has so many other playmakers to worry about on Ohio State's offense, and he should take advantage of those to put up big numbers.
Carnell Tate
O/U: 799.5 receiving yards, 6.5 receiving touchdowns
Tate made the most of his reduced role as a freshman, notching 18 receptions for 264 yards and one touchdown last season. Now as a starter this year, Tate's role will be much bigger this fall.
Prediction: Under 799.5 receiving yards, Over 6.5 receiving touchdowns
The 6-foot-3, 191-pound receiver will prove that he's ready for a bigger role. Although he won't reach the yardage mark solely because there's just so much talent at wide receiver for the Buckeyes, Tate will get in the end zone much more often in 2024.
Jeremiah Smith
O/U: 849.5 receiving yards, 7.5 receiving touchdowns
The top-rated receiver and No. 1 player in the 2024 recruiting class, the hype train for Smith certainly hasn't slowed down since Smith arrived in Columbus in December. It has, somehow, only gained steam, as his coaches and peers alike have discussed time and time again just how talented – and disciplined – Smith is.
Replacing Marvin Harrison Jr. seems like an impossible task, but the 6-foot-3, 215-pound wideout seems to be posed to do just that, and he could very well prove that as a freshman.
Prediction: Over 849.5 receiving yards, Over 7.5 receiving touchdowns
When given the opportunity, Smith will make plays and make defenders look silly, whether it's when he has the ball in his hands or when it comes to getting open downfield.
Even though the Buckeyes might be a run-first offense in 2023, if all of the hype comes to fruition, which is expected, Smith will go down as the best Ohio State freshman wide receiver in program history. It would be quite an accomplishment even with all of the expectations he already has before playing in a college football game.
Brandon Inniss
O/U: 499.5 receiving yards, 3.5 receiving touchdowns
Inniss had just one reception last season, grabbing a 58-yard touchdown. His numbers in 2023, or lack thereof, isn't due to his talent, it's because of just how stacked OSU's receiver room is (and has been).
That continues to be the case this season, as Inniss could very well start the season as WR4 on the depth chart.
Prediction: Over 499.5 receiving yards, Under 3.5 receiving touchdowns
On many teams throughout the country, Inniss would be among the top receivers on the team, but playing behind Egbuka, Tate and Smith will mean that he won't get the ball as much as he should. On the other hand, when he's in the game, Inniss will have plenty of one-on-one opportunities, which he will take advantage of to be one of four Ohio State wide receivers to eclipse the 500-yard mark this season, even if it doesn't show up as much in the touchdown column.
Jack Sawyer
O/U: 7.5 sacks
Prior to 2023, a Buckeye hadn't reached more than six sacks since 2019, when Chase Young (16.5) and Davon Hamilton (six) both reached that number. Sawyer changed that last season and will look to carry that momentum into 2024.
By notching 6.5 sacks (10 tackles for loss) last year, including three sacks against Missouri to conclude the season, Sawyer showed his true talent and ceiling. Sawyer will look to continue wreaking havoc on opposing offensive linemen in 2024.
Prediction: Over 7.5 sacks
With such a loaded group of defensive backs, Sawyer will have plenty of opportunities to get to the quarterback and he will do just that, getting a career-best number and the most sacks an Ohio State player has had in five years.
JT Tuimoloau
O/U: 6.5 sacks
Tuimoloau's sack numbers have continued to increase through his first three seasons at Ohio State, gradually moving from 2.5 to 3.5 and then 5.5 last season.
The second-ranked defensive lineman in the 2021 class, Tuimoloau will look to prove his five-star talent in his final collegiate season.
Prediction: Over 6.5 sacks
Much like the rest of the defensive line, Tuimoloau will have plenty of opportunities to cause havoc on the opposing backfield given how dominant the Buckeye defensive secondary is expected to be. He will do just that, proving that he is one of the best defensive ends in the country on his way to notching a career-high in sacks this fall.
Tyleik Williams
O/U: 5.5 sacks
Much like Tuimoloau and Sawyer, when Williams decided to return to Ohio State for another season, he instantly became one of the best returning defensive linemen in the country, especially at defensive tackle.
After totaling 10 tackles for loss and three sacks in 2023, Williams will have an increased role in the middle of OSU's defensive line and will make the most of it.
Prediction: Over 5.5 sacks
Williams will break down the middle of the opponent's offensive lines, collapse the pocket, and force opposing quarterbacks to re-evaluate staying in the pocket as long as they did in 2023.
Denzel Burke
O/U: 1.5 interceptions
Arguably the best cornerback in college football entering the season, Burke regained his confidence and his dominance in 2023 after struggling the season prior. With one interception and nine pass breakups as a junior, Burke will look to continue that this season.
Prediction: Over 1.5 interceptions
The only way he won't reach this number is if opponents decide to throw away from Burke, which could very well happen. That said, it's not like throwing at other players in Ohio State's defensive backfield are any easier. When he does get thrown at, he will pick off at least three passes this season.
Davison Igbinosun
O/U: 1.5 interceptions
After transferring from Ole Miss following his freshman season in 2022, Igbinosun quickly made a name for himself in Columbus. Although he hasn't recorded an interception through his first two collegiate seasons, the junior will be a major part of BIA this fall.
Prediction: Under 1.5 interceptions
If – and when – opposing quarterbacks avoid Burke, Igbinosun will make them pay as well. He will grab the first interception of his college career this season, making sure opponents know that throwing to his side of the field is no easy task, but his lack of a track record picking off passes makes the under the smart bet here.
Jordan Hancock
O/U: 1.5 interceptions
In his first season as a starter, Hancock led the team with two interceptions in 2023. Locking down the nickel cornerback spot, Hancock proved that he could be a lockdown defender in the slot.
Prediction: Under 1.5 interceptions
Hancock won't reach two interceptions like he did last season, but he will still grab one and be a major part of Ohio State's dominant defensive backfield, proving to be one of the best nickel cornerbacks in the country.
Lathan Ransom
O/U: 1.5 interceptions
The fifth-year senior has grabbed an interception each of the last two years and, if he can stay healthy, will be a major part of Ohio State's secondary in 2023. With his experience paired with his ability to make plays at safety, Ransom will make one heckuva one-two punch at the position wth Caleb Downs.
Prediction: Under 1.5 interceptions
With another year of Jim Knowles' defense under his belt, Ransom will prove to be a veteran leader at safety but will only grab one interception, just like he has each of the last two season. That said, Ransom will have several key pass breakups this year.
Caleb Downs
O/U: 2.5 interceptions
As a freshman at Alabama last season, Downs notched 107 tackles (3.5 for loss), two interceptions, four pass breakups, one forced fumble and a fumble recovery in 2023. Now, he joins the best defensive backfield in the country, one that will shut down many opponents as Downs hopes to be one of the many contributors to the best defense in the country.
Prediction: Under 2.5 interceptions
Somehow, some way, the Best In America added the best safety in the country this offseason as well. Downs will continue to make plenty of plays all over the field as a safety but will only grab one interception because of all of the talent surrounding him in the secondary.
