How much will the Buckeyes improve statistically from 2023 to this season?
| Prop | Over/Under | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 41.5 | Over |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 38.5 | Over |
| Passing Touchdowns | 33.5 | Under |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 294.5 | Under |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 266.5 | Over |
| Yards Per Carry | 5.59 | Over |
| Third-Down Conversion Rate | 50% | Over |
| Red-Zone Touchdown Rate | 70% | Over |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 11 | Under |
| Sacks | 39.5 | Under |
| Tackles For Loss | 98.5 | Under |
| Opponent Third-Down Conversion Rate | 27% | Under |
| Interceptions | 13.5 | Under |
Ohio State has plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball, with a number of its units ranking among the best in the country entering the 2024 season. The defense could be the best in the country, the offense could be Ryan Day's first run-first offense since taking over for Urban Meyer in 2019, and the national award watch list candidates take more than two hands to count. Altogether, the Buckeyes are stacked in almost all areas of the field on both sides of the ball, hence the reason OSU is considered a national championship frontrunner entering the 2024 season.
With that, we came up with over/unders for plenty of different team totals both on offense and defense that we believe could realistically go either way – and predict whether the Buckeyes will hit the respective overs in each category.
(Note: Given the expanded playoff and the fact that OSU's season could be between 13 and 17 games this season, these numbers are just for the 12 regular-season games).
Points Per Game
| Year | Points/Game (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 30.5 (45th) |
| 2022 | 44.2 (2nd) |
| 2021 | 45.7 (1st) |
| 2020 | 41 (11th) |
| 2019 | 46.9 (3rd) |
O/U: 41.5
Before averaging only 30.5 points last season – the lowest total by an Ohio State team since 2011 (24.5) – the Buckeyes had averaged at least 40 points per game every season since 2016, when they averaged 39.4 points per contest.
With Chip Kelly taking over as the offensive coordinator, along with Day relinquishing the play-calling duties for the first time, projecting OSU's offensive style and the fact that Ohio State could be a run-first team this fall means that the 40-point mark should be what the Buckeyes strive for this season.
While there are questions along the offensive line and with Will Howard's downfield accuracy, an area of the field he struggled with last year but seemed to improve on during fall camp, the Buckeye offense should still be too good to not have a goal of averaging six (or so) touchdowns per game.
Prediction: Over 41.5 points
Ohio State's easy non-conference schedule could allow it to score around 200 points in the first four games of the season. If the Buckeyes average 50 points per game in those games, they would have to average 38 points per game in the final eight games of the season against Big Ten opponents to reach the 42-point mark per game.
OSU's easy non-conference schedule paired with the amount of playmakers the Buckeyes have, both in the backfield and on the outside, should make it so Ohio State will average over 42 points per game, likely giving them a top-five offense in college football this season.
Rushing Touchdowns
| Year | Rushing TDs (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 (T-62nd) |
| 2022 | 30 (T-23rd) |
| 2021 | 24 (T-24th) |
| 2020 | 19 (T-32nd) |
| 2019 | 39 (6th) |
O/U: 38.5
Will Ohio State score its most rushing touchdowns since Day took over for Meyer in 2019? It's certainly possible with Will Howard, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins leading the charge. Add in Kelly's running schemes and ability to draw up plays to get open lanes, it seems to be a perfect recipe for that.
Prediction: Over 38.5 rushing touchdowns
The Buckeyes' backfield is just too good not to get this. Howard and the best one-two punch at running back in the country should have their fair share of touchdowns, and Ohio State's second- and third-string offense will score a few touchdowns on the ground of their own when given the opportunity in blowouts. The Buckeyes will not only score the most rushing touchdowns since Day took over for Meyer in 2019, but they will be among the best rushing attacks in the country this season.
Passing Touchdowns
| Year | Passing TDs (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 (T-31st) |
| 2022 | 42 (4th) |
| 2021 | 46 (3rd) |
| 2020 | 22 (T-22nd) |
| 2019 | 48 (T-3rd) |
O/U: 33.5
While three of five seasons with Day as head coach have featured 42-plus passing touchdowns, Howard threw for 48 touchdowns in four seasons (34 games) at Kansas State, including 24 last season. That said, the fifth-year senior has never had the type of skill players he has at receiver in Columbus.
Prediction: Under 33.5 passing touchdowns
Howard will set a career-high in terms of passing touchdowns this fall, but Ohio State's run-first offense paired with several games being blowouts will make it so the Buckeyes will spend plenty of time running out the clock, and the clock will run out on Howard and Co. throwing for more than 33 touchdowns in 2024.
Total Yards
| Year | Yards/Game (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 407.9 (48th) |
| 2022 | 490.7 (9th) |
| 2021 | 561.2 (1st) |
| 2020 | 519.4 (7th) |
| 2019 | 529.9 (4th) |
O/U: 499.5
Will Ohio State's offense get back to averaging more than 500 yards per game, much like it did in Day's first three years leading the team in Columbus but was unable to each of the last two seasons?
Prediction: Over 499.5 yards per game
You know that shirt that lists all of the playmakers on your favorite team on the front? Howard and Henderson and Judkins and Egbuka and Smith and Tate and Inniss (and more). If not, create one, because that's too much talent to not get back to that 500-yard mark even if the Buckeyes will run it more often than they pass it this fall.
Passing Yards
| Year | Passing Yards/Game (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 269.1 (31st) |
| 2022 | 298.3 (14th) |
| 2021 | 380.9 (3rd) |
| 2020 | 262.5 (37th) |
| 2019 | 263.1 (36th) |
O/U: 294.5
In his career with the Wildcats, Howard averaged 170.1 passing yards per game, throwing for 5,786 yards in 34 games. As mentioned above, his offensive weapons have never been as good as they are this season, but adding more than 120 passing yards per game to his career average could be a tall task, even with all of the talent on the outside.
Prediction: Under 294.5 passing yards per game
While Ohio State's backup quarterbacks will have plenty of opportunities to add to the passing numbers, it seems like an offense led by Kelly will throw for less than 295 yards per game – even with the early-season slate – especially considering Day's offense hasn't reached the 300-yard mark through the air in four of five seasons at Ohio State.
Rushing Yards
| Year | Rushing Yards/Game (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 138.9 (88th) |
| 2022 | 192.4 (32nd) |
| 2021 | 180.3 (47th) |
| 2020 | 256.9 (8th) |
| 2019 | 266.8 (5th) |
O/U: 266.5
Ohio State's rushing attack was abysmal last season, to put it bluntly. Its 138.9 rushing yards per game was the lowest mark since 2003 when the Buckeyes averaged 126.1 yards on the ground.
But again, with Howard, Henderson, Judkins and Kelly's play-calling ability, it seems like a perfect recipe for success to potentially turn things around for Ohio State's rushing attack this season.
Prediction: Over 266.5 rushing yards per game
That perfect recipe will come to fruition and the Buckeyes will average their most rushing yards per game since Day took over in 2019. Not only will Howard, Henderson and Judkins prove to be dominant runners of their own, but even the backups will be able to add to the numbers when given the opportunity.
Yards Per Carry
| Year | Total Points (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 4.19 (79th) |
| 2022 | 5.37 (11th) |
| 2021 | 5.54 (3rd) |
| 2020 | 5.96 (3rd) |
| 2019 | 5.63 (6th) |
O/U: 5.59
Ohio State shouldn’t average fewer than five yards per carry, and that number being closer to four than five makes it even worse. Day knows that must improve this season and adding Judkins and Kelly is certainly a way to help with that.
Prediction: Over 5.59 yards per carry
Even with the offensive line being the offense's biggest question mark entering the season, Ohio State's rushing attack will be too good and have too many playmakers for the Buckeyes not to average more than 5.6 yards per carry, which should be among the best in the country and one of the best marks for the program over the last five years.
Third-Down Conversion Percentage
| Year | 3rd Down % (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 43.4% (33rd) |
| 2022 | 45.2% (27th) |
| 2021 | 52.6% (2nd) |
| 2020 | 49.1% (10th) |
| 2019 | 55.2% (1st) |
O/U: 50%
The Buckeyes gradually getting worse on third downs over the last two seasons after being the second-best team in the country at it in 2021 is one reason OSU's offense failed to meet expectations.
Outside of converting in the red zone, getting a first down on third down is one of the most important aspects of a successful offense. If Ohio State wants to reach its ceiling this season, the Buckeye offense must improve in that area.
Prediction: Over 50% third-down conversion rate
With the opposing defense having to worry about either Howard, Henderson or Judkins (or all three) running the ball paired with Ohio State's wide receivers and tight ends getting open, the Buckeyes will get their groove back on third down and be among the best in the country at third-down conversion rate when all is said and done.
Red-Zone Touchdown Rate
| Year | Red Zone % (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 64% (T-47th) |
| 2022 | 74.6% (6th) |
| 2021 | 64.4% (45th) |
| 2020 | 63.4% (T-57th) |
| 2019 | 78.7% (T-4th) |
O/U: 70%
With Day in charge, Ohio State's offense has either done really well in the red zone, ranking among the top six in the country, or has been in the middle of the pack.
Prediction: Over 70% red-zone touchdown rate
Much like OSU's third-down conversion rate is set to improve, the same can be said for Ohio State's ability to score touchdowns in the red zone. The opposing defense will have too much to worry about with the running ability from the trio in the backfield and it will open up the field for the Buckeyes' receivers when OSU can't find space in the run game inside the 20-yard line.
Points Allowed
| Year | Points Allowed/Game (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 11.2 (2nd) |
| 2022 | 21 (24th) |
| 2021 | 22.8 (38th) |
| 2020 | 25.8 (T-43rd) |
| 2019 | 13.7 (4th) |
O/U: 11
It's been 26 years since the Silver Bullets allowed fewer than 11 points per game (10.8 in 1998). While today's game is much more offensive-focused, there hasn't been a defense like this year's in Columbus in quite some time.
Prediction: Under 11 points allowed per game
Ohio State's defense not only has the chance to be the best in the country, but it could be one of the best in program history as well. With Jim Knowles' third season leading the unit along with the amount of playmakers the Buckeyes have in every area of the field, there isn't a weak spot for OSU's defense. That, paired with the weak schedule early on, could be a recipe for Ohio State to allow less than 11 points per game this season.
Sacks
| Year | Sacks/Game (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 28 (T-60th) |
| 2022 | 34 (T-32nd) |
| 2021 | 36 (T-34th) |
| 2020 | 21 (T-49th) |
| 2019 | 54 (1st) |
O/U: 39.5
After a drastic drop from 54 sacks in 2019 to only 21 in 2020, Ohio State's sack numbers have gradually declined from 2021 to 2023. This year, the Buckeyes have a majority of their key contributors on the defensive line back from 2023, which should certainly help their case in terms of getting to the quarterback.
Prediction: Under 39.5 sacks
While I think that Ohio State's dominant (and deep) defensive line will be able to garner more sacks than last season, getting to 40 for the first time since 2019 seems like a tall task. That said, I still think it will be in the high 30s due to the Buckeyes' dominant front, experience, depth and how good Ohio State's secondary is, forcing opposing quarterbacks to hold the ball longer than they should.
Tackles For Loss
| Year | TFL/Game (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 72 (T-65th) |
| 2022 | 86 (T-31st) |
| 2021 | 83 (T-44th) |
| 2020 | 46 (T-82nd) |
| 2019 | 124 (1st) |
O/U: 98.5
With all of the pieces Ohio State's defense has this fall, notching 100-plus tackles for loss for the first time since 2019 doesn't seem too far-fetched. The defensive line should be able to get in the backfield, the linebackers are big and athletic enough to do the same, and the secondary should be so dominant that it will force the opposing quarterback to hold onto the ball longer than he should. Defensive backs like Lathan Ransom, Caleb Downs and Jordan Hancock also have the ability to play in the box and get into the opposing backfield at times.
Prediction: Under 98.5 tackles for loss
While having so many experienced playmakers should lead to more big plays for the Silver Bullets this year, getting over two tackles for loss per game more than they did last season seems like quite a jump. It's certainly possible given the reasons above, but I expect this number to fall short simply because opponents, especially Big Ten foes, will scheme up quick passing plays and running plays to get to the outside.
Opponent Third-Down Conversion Percentage
| Year | Opponent 3rd-Down % (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 28.6% (5th) |
| 2022 | 30% (8th) |
| 2021 | 42.1% (100th) |
| 2020 | 37.1% (35th) |
| 2019 | 29.1% (4th) |
O/U: 27%
After allowing a 42.1% third-down conversion rate in 2021, the Silver Bullets have gradually improved in that area under Knowles, as they were one of the five best defenses in the country on third downs last season.
Prediction: Under 27% opponent third-down conversion rate
To be the best defense in college football, one must shut down its opponent on third down. Georgia led the country in opponent third-down conversion rate last season at 25.71%. While it could be tough for the Buckeyes to drop over 3% from their 2023 number, Ohio State only needs to improve by 2% to hold its opponents to under 27% converting third downs this season.
Interceptions
| Year | Interceptions/Game (Rank) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 7 (T-112th) |
| 2022 | 11 (T-51st) |
| 2021 | 12 (T-40th) |
| 2020 | 7 (T-58th) |
| 2019 | 15 (T-13th) |
O/U: 13.5!interceptions
Ohio State has never ranked better than 40th in the country in interceptions in the Day era and had just seven last season, one of the worst numbers in the country. While the Buckeyes had one of the best defenses in the country in 2023, it wasn't due to taking balls away through the air.
That said, OSU's secondary has the makings to improve that amount drastically this season.
Prediction: Under 13.5 interceptions
This doesn't seem like much when you break it down to 14 interceptions in 12 games, but the fact that Ohio State has combined for just 18 interceptions over the last two seasons says a lot. Even with all of the talent returning along with the addition of a do-it-all safety in Downs, doubling the 2023 number seems like a tall task. Opponents could be smart enough to not throw as much given Ohio State's dominant secondary, which would give the Buckeyes fewer opportunities to cause a turnover through the air.
